Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Contribution of realistic soil moisture initial conditions to boreal summer climate predictability

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts mainly rely on the atmospheric sensitivity to its lower boundary conditions and on their own predictability. Besides sea surface temperature (SST), soil moisture (SM) may be an additional source of climate predictability particularly during boreal summer in the mid-latitudes. In this work, we investigate the role of SM initial conditions on near-surface climate predictability during ten boreal summer seasons using three complementary ensembles of AMIP-type simulations performed with the Arpège-Climat atmospheric general circulation model. First we have conducted an assessment of the SM predictability itself through a comparison of simple empirical SM models with Arpège-Climat. The statistical and dynamical models reveal similar SM prediction skill patterns but the Arpège-Climat reaches higher scores suggesting that it is at least suitable to explore the influence of SM initialization on atmospheric predictability. Then we evaluate the relationships between SM predictability and some near surface atmospheric predictability. While SM initialization obviously improves the predictability of land surface evaporation, it has no systematic influence on the precipitation and near surface temperature skills. Nevertheless, the summer hindcast skill is clearly improved during specific years and over certain regions (mainly north America and eastern Europe in the Arpège-Climat model), when and where the SM forcing is sufficiently widespread and strong. In this case, a significant impact is also found on the occurrence of heat waves and heavy rains, whose predictability at the seasonal timescale is a crucial challenge for years to come.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alfaro E, Gershunov A, Cayan DR (2006) Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the Central and Western United States: the role of soil moisture and sea surface temperature. J Clim 19:1407–1421

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beljaars A, Viterbo P, Miller M, Betts A (1996) The anomalous rainfall over the United States during July 1993: sensitivity to land surface parameterization and soil moisture anomalies. Mon Wea Rev 124:362–383

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Black E, Sutton R (2007) The influence of oceanic conditions on the hot European summer of 2003. Clim Dyn 28:53–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caesar J, Alexander L, Vose R (2006) Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures—creation and analysis of a new gridded dataset. J Geophys Res 111:D05101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cassou C, Terray L, Phillips AS (2005) Tropical Atlantic influence on European heat waves. J Clim 18:2805–2811

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colman AW, Davey MK (2003) Statistical prediction of global sea-surface temperature anomalies. Int J Climatol 23:1677–1697

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Conil S, Douville H, Tyteca S (2007) The relative influence of soil moisture and SST in climate predictability explored within ensembles of AMIP type experiments. Clim Dyn 28:125–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Della-Marta PM, Luterbacher J, von Weissenfluh H, Xoplaki E, Brunet M, Wanner H (2007) Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability. Clim Dyn 29:251–275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delworth T, Manabe S (1988) Influence of potential evaporation on the variabilities of simulated soil wetness and climate. J Clim 1:523–547

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dirmeyer P (2003) The role of the land surface background state in climate predictability. J Hydrometeorol 4:599–610

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dirmeyer P (2005) The land surface contribution to the potential predictability of boreal summer season climate. J Hydrometeorol 6:618–632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douville H (2003) Assessing the influence of soil moisture on seasonal climate variability with AGCMs. J Hydrometeorol 4:1044–1066

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douville H (2004) Relevance of soil moisture for seasonal atmospheric predictions: is it an initial value problem. Clim Dyn 22:429–446

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douville H, Chauvin F (2000) Relevance of soil moisture for seasonal climate predictions: a preliminary study. Clim Dyn 16:719–736

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drusch M, Viterbo P (2007) Assimilation of screen-level variables in ECMWF’s integrated forecast system: a study on the impact on the forecast quality and analyzed soil moisture. Mon Wea Rev 135:300–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Entin J, Robock A, Vinnikov K, Zabelin V, Liu S, Namkhai A (1999) Evaluation of Global Soil Wetness Project soil moisture simulations. J Meteor Soc Japan 77:183–198

    Google Scholar 

  • Entin J, Robock A, Vinnikov K, Hollinger S, Liu S, Namkhai A (2000) Temporal and spatial scales of observed soil moisture variations in the extratropics. J Geophys Res 105:865–877

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fennessy M, Shukla J (1999) Impact of initial soil wetness on seasonal atmospheric prediction. J Clim 12:3167–3180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferranti L, Viterbo P (2006) The European summer of 2003: sensitivity to soil water initial conditions. J Clim 19:3659–3680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer E, Seneviratne S, Vidale P, Luthi D, Schar C (2007) Soil moisture–atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer heatwave. J Clim 20:5081–5099

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gershunov A, Douville H (2007) Extensive summer hot and cold extremes under current and possible future climatic conditions: Europe and north America. In: Diaz H, Murnane R (eds) Climate extremes and society. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (in press)

  • Groisman PYa, Knight RW, Karl TR, Easterling DR, Sun B, Lawrimore JM (2004) Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: trends derived from in-situ observations. J Hydrometeorol 5:64–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo Z-C, Dirmeyer PA (2006) Evaluation of GSWP-2 soil moisture simulations, Part 1: inter-model comparison. J Geophys Res 111:D22S02

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Lu C, Schemm J, Ebisuzaki W (2003) The predictability of soil moisture and near-surface temperature in hindcasts of the NCEP seasonal forecast model. J Clim 16:510–521

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koster R, Dirmeyer P, Hahmann A, Ijpelaar R, Tyahla L, Cox C, Suarez M (2002) Comparing the degree of land–atmosphere interaction in four atmospheric general circulation models. J Hydrometeorol 3:363–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koster R, Suarez M (2001) Soil moisture memory in climate models. J Hydrometeorol 2:558–570

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koster R, Suarez M (2003a) Suggestions in the observational record of land–atmosphere feedback operating at seasonal time scales. J Hydrometeorol 5:567–572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koster R, Suarez M (2003b) Impact of land surface initialization on seasonal precipitation and temperature prediction. J Hydrometeorol 1:408–423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koster R, Suarez M, Heiser M (2000) Variability and predictability of precipitation at seasonal to interannual timescales. J Hydrometeorol 1:26–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koster R, Suarez M, Liu P, Jambor U, Berg A, Kistler M, Reichle R, Rodell R, Famiglietti J (2004) Realistic initialization of land surface states: impacts on subseasonal forecast skill. J Hydrometeorol 5:1049–1063

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koster R et al (2004) Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science 305:1138–1140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manabe S, Delworth T (1990) The temporal variability of soil wetness and its impact on climate. Clim Change 16:185–192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miranda S (2003) Actualizacion de la base de datos ERIC II. Final report of the project TH-0226, IMTA internal reports

  • Rodwell M, Doblas-Reyes F (2006) Medium-range, monthly, and seasonal prediction for Europe and the use of forecast information. J Clim 19:6025–6046

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schar C, Vidale PL, Luthi D, Frei C, Haberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427:332–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schlosser C, Milly P (2002) A model-based investigation of soil moisture predictability and associated climate predictability. J Hydrometeorol 3:483–501

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne S, Koster R, Guo Z, Dirmeyer P, Kowalczyk E, Lawrence D, Liu P, Lu C-H, Mocko D, Oleson K, Verseghy D (2006a) Soil moisture memory in AGCM simulations: analysis of global land–atmosphere coupling experiment (GLACE) data. J Hydrometeorol 7:1090–1112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seneviratne SI, Luthi D, Litschi M, Schar C (2006b) Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443:205–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vautard R, Yiou P, D’Andrea F, de Noblet N, Viovy N, Cassou C, Polcher J, Ciais P, Kageyama M, Fan Y (2007) Summertime European heat and drought waves induced by wintertime Mediterranean rainfall deficit. Geophys Res Lett 34:L07711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vincent LA, Gullett DW (1999) Canadian historical and homogeneous temperature datasets for climate change analyses. Int J Climatol 19:1375–1388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Von Storch H, Zwiers F (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu W, Dickinson R (2004) Time scales of layered soil moisture memory in the context of land–atmosphere interaction. J Clim 17:2752–2764

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang H, Frederiksen C (2003) Local and nonlocal impacts of soil moisture initialization on AGCM seasonal forecasts: a model sensitivity study. J Clim 16:2117–2137

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank A. Gershunov for preparing the north American precipitation using various original data sources and for his careful reading of the paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. LPAT-GEOL, Département de Physique, UFR SEN, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, Campus de Fouillole, 97157, Pointe-à-Pitre Cedex, Guadeloupe, France

    S. Conil

  2. CNRM/GMGEC/UDC, Météo France, Toulouse, France

    H. Douville & S. Tyteca

Authors
  1. S. Conil
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. H. Douville
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. S. Tyteca
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to S. Conil.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Conil, S., Douville, H. & Tyteca, S. Contribution of realistic soil moisture initial conditions to boreal summer climate predictability. Clim Dyn 32, 75–93 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0375-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0375-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation