Abstract
The ability of five, global coupled climate models to simulate important atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere for the period 1960–1999 is assessed. The circulation features examined are the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM), the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) and the quasi-stationary zonal wave 3 (ZW3). The models assessed are the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark 3, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model ER (GISS-ER) and the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Center Coupled Model Version 3. The simulations were compared to the NCAR–NCEP reanalyses. The models simulate a SAO which differs spatially from the observed over the Pacific and Indian oceans. The amplitudes are too high over the southern ocean and too low over the midlatitudes. These differences are attributed to a circumpolar trough which is too deep and extends too far north, and to the inability of the models to simulate the middle to high latitude temperature gradient. The SAM is well-represented spatially by most models but there are important differences which may influence the flow over the Pacific and in the region extending from the Ross to Weddell Seas. The observed trend towards positive polarity in the SAM is apparent in the ensemble averages of the GISS-ER and CCSM3 simulations, suggesting that the trend is due to external forcing by changes in the concentration of ozone and greenhouse gases. ZW3 is well-represented by the models but the observed trend towards positive phases of ZW3 is not apparent in the simulations suggesting that the observed trend may be due to natural variability, not external forcing.
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Acknowledgements
This research was funded by NSF and DOE as a Climate Model Evaluation Project (CMEP) grant# NSF ATM 0444682, under the US CLIVAR Program (http://www.usclivar.org/index.html). We acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy. This research uses data provided by the Community Climate System Model project (http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu), supported by the Directorate for Geosciences of the National Science Foundation and the Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments which served to improve this manuscript. We also thank Chase Langford for his assistance with the Figures.
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Raphael, M.N., Holland, M.M. Twentieth century simulation of the southern hemisphere climate in coupled models. Part 1: large scale circulation variability. Clim Dyn 26, 217–228 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0082-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0082-8