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Tropical influence on Euro-Asian autumn rainfall variability

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Abstract

The connection between autumn rainfall variability in the Euro-Asian domain and tropical climate is documented using state-of-the-art global observational datasets and re-analyses. Results suggest a robust statistical relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and autumn rainfall in parts of southwest Europe, northern Africa and southwest Asia. The correlation between area-mean anomalies over this region (Pea) and the NIÑO3.4 index is 0.68, stationary over the last 50 years. Global ENSO-like tropical climate anomalies are observed in conjunction with Pea anomalies confirming the relationship found with the NIÑO3.4 index. Overall, the connection with Indo-Pacific variability is stronger than that with the eastern Pacific.While rainfall anomalies in southwest Europe and southwest Asia appear to largely co-vary as one pattern under the influence of ENSO, our results suggest that different mechanisms may be contributing to the observed anomalies. In the North Atlantic/European region, it is speculated that while a PNA-like mode maybe the prevailing teleconnection mechanism for high Pea, for low Pea tropical Atlantic ENSO related SST anomalies may be playing a more relevant role forcing northeastward propagating Rossby waves. Over southwest Asia, a more direct connection to the Indo-Pacific region is suggested by the upper air anomaly observed over southern Asia, possibly the Rossby wave response to enhanced heating in the Indian Ocean.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to thank all those who have provided the data used for this work. We acknowledge useful discussions with S. Nigam, R. Murtugudde, K.-M. Lau, A. Navarra and the comments of the anonymous reviewers who helped to improve this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. ENEA, Rome, Italy and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    A. Mariotti

  2. ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    J. Ballabrera-Poy

  3. Department of Meteorology and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    N. Zeng

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  1. A. Mariotti
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  2. J. Ballabrera-Poy
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  3. N. Zeng
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Correspondence to A. Mariotti.

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Mariotti, A., Ballabrera-Poy, J. & Zeng, N. Tropical influence on Euro-Asian autumn rainfall variability. Clim Dyn 24, 511–521 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0498-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0498-6

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