Abstract
The focus of this study is to document the possible role of the southern subtropical Indian Ocean in the transitions of the monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades. Composite analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) fields prior to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), Australian summer monsoon (AUSM), tropical Indian Ocean dipole (TIOD) and Maritime Continent rainfall (MCR) indices reveal the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) SSTs during late boreal winter as the unique common SST precursor of these various phenomena after the 1976–1977 regime shift. Weak (strong) ISMs and AUSMs, El Niños (La Niñas) and positive (negative) TIOD events are preceded by significant negative (positive) SST anomalies in the SEIO, off Australia during boreal winter. These SST anomalies are mainly linked to subtropical Indian Ocean dipole events, recently studied by Behera and Yamagata (Geophys Res Lett 28:327–330, 2001). A wavelet analysis of a February–March SEIO SST time series shows significant spectral peaks at 2 and 4–8 years time scales as for ENSO, ISM or AUSM indices. A composite analysis with respect to February–March SEIO SSTs shows that cold (warm) SEIO SST anomalies are highly persistent and affect the westward translation of the Mascarene high from austral to boreal summer, inducing a weakening (strengthening) of the whole ISM circulation through a modulation of the local Hadley cell during late boreal summer. At the same time, these subtropical SST anomalies and the associated SEIO anomalous anticyclone may be a trigger for both the wind-evaporation-SST and wind-thermocline-SST positive feedbacks between Australia and Sumatra during boreal spring and early summer. These positive feedbacks explain the extraordinary persistence of the SEIO anomalous anticyclone from boreal spring to fall. Meanwhile, the SEIO anomalous anticyclone favors persistent southeasterly wind anomalies along the west coast of Sumatra and westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific, which are well-known key factors for the evolution of positive TIOD and El Niño events, respectively. A correlation analysis supports these results and shows that SEIO SSTs in February–March has higher predictive skill than other well-established ENSO predictors for forecasting Niño3.4 SST at the end of the year. This suggests again that SEIO SST anomalies exert a fundamental influence on the transitions of the whole monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the French Programme National d’Etude Du Climat (PNEDC). The NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data was provided through the NOAA Climate Center (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov) and SODA analysis data from the IRI data library server (http://iridl.columbia.edu). Wavelet software was provided by C. Torrence and G. Compo, and is available at URL: http://paos.colorado.edu/research/wavelets/. Computations were performed at the French Institute for Development and Resources in Scientific Computing (IDRIS). Graphics were prepared using the SAXO package of Sébastien Masson. We thank A.S. Fischer and G. Reverdin for final comments and careful rereading of the manuscript. We also thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor (J.C. Duplessy) for their comments that improved this paper.
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Appendix
Appendix
Definition of the acronyms used in the paper. The dynamical indices DU1, SSI1 and WSI1 are defined and discussed in Wang and Fan (1999) and Wang et al. (2001).
AIRI | All India rainfall index |
AUSM | Australian summer monsoon |
CMAP | Climate prediction center merged analysis of precipitation |
DU1 | Difference of the zonal wind anomalies |
EAUS | East coast of Australia |
ENSO | El Niño- Southern Oscillation |
ERSST | Extended reconstruction of global SST |
ETIO | Eastern tropical Indian Ocean |
GCM | General circulation model |
ISM | Indian summer monsoon |
ITCZ | Inter-tropical convergence zone |
MCR | Maritime Continent rainfall |
SEIO | Southeast Indian Ocean |
SLP | Sea level pressure |
SODA | Simple ocean data assimilation |
SPCZ | South Pacific convergence zone |
SSI1 | Southerly shear index |
SST | Sea surface temperature |
TBO | Tropospheric biennial oscillation |
TIOD | Tropical Indian Ocean dipole |
WPAC | Western equatorial PACific zonal wind anomaly |
WSI1 | Westerly shear index |
WTIO | Western tropical Indian Ocean |
Z20 | Monthly mean 20°C thermocline depth anomaly |
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Terray, P., Dominiak, S. & Delecluse, P. Role of the southern Indian Ocean in the transitions of the monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades. Clim Dyn 24, 169–195 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0480-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0480-3