Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Role of the southern Indian Ocean in the transitions of the monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The focus of this study is to document the possible role of the southern subtropical Indian Ocean in the transitions of the monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades. Composite analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) fields prior to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), Australian summer monsoon (AUSM), tropical Indian Ocean dipole (TIOD) and Maritime Continent rainfall (MCR) indices reveal the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) SSTs during late boreal winter as the unique common SST precursor of these various phenomena after the 1976–1977 regime shift. Weak (strong) ISMs and AUSMs, El Niños (La Niñas) and positive (negative) TIOD events are preceded by significant negative (positive) SST anomalies in the SEIO, off Australia during boreal winter. These SST anomalies are mainly linked to subtropical Indian Ocean dipole events, recently studied by Behera and Yamagata (Geophys Res Lett 28:327–330, 2001). A wavelet analysis of a February–March SEIO SST time series shows significant spectral peaks at 2 and 4–8 years time scales as for ENSO, ISM or AUSM indices. A composite analysis with respect to February–March SEIO SSTs shows that cold (warm) SEIO SST anomalies are highly persistent and affect the westward translation of the Mascarene high from austral to boreal summer, inducing a weakening (strengthening) of the whole ISM circulation through a modulation of the local Hadley cell during late boreal summer. At the same time, these subtropical SST anomalies and the associated SEIO anomalous anticyclone may be a trigger for both the wind-evaporation-SST and wind-thermocline-SST positive feedbacks between Australia and Sumatra during boreal spring and early summer. These positive feedbacks explain the extraordinary persistence of the SEIO anomalous anticyclone from boreal spring to fall. Meanwhile, the SEIO anomalous anticyclone favors persistent southeasterly wind anomalies along the west coast of Sumatra and westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific, which are well-known key factors for the evolution of positive TIOD and El Niño events, respectively. A correlation analysis supports these results and shows that SEIO SSTs in February–March has higher predictive skill than other well-established ENSO predictors for forecasting Niño3.4 SST at the end of the year. This suggests again that SEIO SST anomalies exert a fundamental influence on the transitions of the whole monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ailikun B, Yasunari T (2001) ENSO and Asian summer monsoon: persistence and transitivity in the seasonal march. J Meteor Soc Jpn 79:145–159

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexander MA, Bladé I, Newman M, Lanzante JR, Lau N-C, Scott JD (2002) The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the Global Oceans. J Clim 15:2205–2231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allan RJ et al (2001) Is there an Indian Ocean dipole, and is it independent of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation? CLIVAR Exch 6(3):18–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson D (1999) Climatology: extremes in the Indian Ocean. Nature 401:337–338

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2003) A look at the relationship between the ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole. J Meteor Soc Jpn 81:41–56

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Australian winter rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 30:61–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baquero-Bernal A, Latif M (2002) On dipole-like variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. J Climate 15:1358–1368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnett TP (1983) Interaction of the monsoon and Pacific trade wind system at interannual time scales. Part I: The equatorial zone. Mon Wea Rev 111:756–773

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Behera SK, Yamagata T (2001) Subtropical SST dipole events in the southern Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 28:327–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the southern oscillation. J Meteor Soc Jpn 81:169–177

    Google Scholar 

  • Carton JA, Chepurin G, Cao X, Giese B (2000a) A simple ocean data assimilation analysis of the Global Upper Ocean 1950–1995. Part 1: methodology. J Phys Oceanogr 30:294–309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carton JA, Chepurin G, Cao X (2000b) A simple ocean data assimilation analysis of the Global Upper Ocean 1950–1995. Part 2: results. J Phys Oceanogr 30:311–326

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chandrasekar A, Kitoh A (1998) Impact of localized sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean on the Indian summer monsoon. J Meteor Soc Jpn 76:841–853

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang CP, Li T (2000) A theory for the tropical tropospheric biennial oscillation. J Atmos Sci 57:2209–2224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark CO, Cole JE, Webster PJ (2000) Indian Ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall: predictive relationships and their decadal variability. J Climate 13:2503–2519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke AJ, Van Gorder S (2001) ENSO prediction using an ENSO trigger and a proxy for western equatorial pacific warm pool movement. Geophys Res Lett 28(4):579–582

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke AJ, Van Gorder S (2003) Improving El Niño prediction using a space–time integration of Indo-Pacific winds and equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean heat content. Geophys Res Lett 30(7):52.1–52.4

    Google Scholar 

  • Drosdowsky W (1993) Potential predictability of winter rainfall over Southern and Eastern Australia using Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures anomalies. Aust Meteorol Mag 42:1–6

    Google Scholar 

  • Drosdowsky W, Chambers LE (2001) Near-global sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors of Australian seasonal rainfall. J Climate 14:1677–1687

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drosdowsky W, Williams M (1991) The southern oscillation in the Australian region. Part I: anomalies at the extremes of the oscillation. J Climate 4:619–638

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fauchereau N, Trzaska S, Richard Y, Roucou P, Camberlin P (2003) Sea-surface temperature co-variability in the southern Atlantic and Indian oceans and its connections with the atmospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere. Int J Climatol 23:663–677

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer AS, Terray P, Delecluse P, Gualdi S, Guilyardi E (2004) Triggers for tropical Indian Ocean variability and links to ENSO in a constrained coupled climate model. J Climate (submitted)

  • Gershunov A, Barnett TP (1998) Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:2715–2825

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 106:447–462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gill AE (1982) Atmosphere–Ocean dynamics. Academic, New York, p 662

    Google Scholar 

  • Goddard L, Graham NE (1999) The importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating precipitation anomalies over eastern and southern Africa. J Geophys Res 104:19099–19116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gutzler DS, Harrison DE (1987) The structure and evolution of seasonal wind anomalies over the near-equatorial eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Mon Wea Rev 115:169–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harrison DE, Larkin NK (1998) El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature and wind anomalies, 1946–1993. Rev Geophys 36(3):353–399

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harzallah A, Sadourny R (1997) Observed lead-lag relationships between Indian summer monsoon and some meteorological variables. Clim Dynam 13:635–648

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hendon HH (2003) Indonesian rainfall variability: impacts of ENSO and local air-sea interactions. J Climate 16:1775–1790

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iizuka S, Matsuura T, Yamagata T (2000) The Indian Ocean SST dipole simulated in a coupled general circulation model. Geophys Res Lett 27:3369–3372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jin FF (1997) An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: conceptual model. J Atmos Sci 54:811

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kidson JW, Renwick JA (2002) The southern evolution of ENSO during 1981–1999. J Climate 15:847–863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kinter JL, Miyakoda K, Yang S (2002) Recent change in the connection from the Asian Monsoon to ENSO. J Climate 15:1203–1215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein SA, Soden BJ, Lau N-C (1999) Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J Climate 12:917–932

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Larkin NK, Harrison DE (2002) ENSO warm (El Niño), cold (La Niña) events life cycles: ocean, surface anomaly patterns, their symmetries, asymmetries, and implications. J Climate 15:1118–1140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau NC, Nath MJ (2000) Impact of ENSO on the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoons as simulated in GCM experiments. J Climate 13:4287–4309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau NC, Nath MJ (2003) Atmosphere–Ocean variations in the Indo-Pacific sector during ENSO episodes. J Climate 16:3–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau KM, Wu H-T (2001) Principal modes of rainfall-SST variability of the Asian summer monsoon: a re-assessment of monsoon-ENSO relationships. J Climate 14:2880–2895

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lengaigne M, Boulanger JB, Menkes C, Masson S, Madec G, Delecluse P (2002) Ocean response to the March 1997 westerly wind event. J Geophys Res 107(C12):8015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li T, Tham C-W, Chang CP (2001a) A coupled air-sea-monsoon oscillator for the troposheric biennial oscillation. J Climate 14:752–764

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li T, Zhang YS, Chang CP, Wang B (2001b) On the relationship between Indian Ocean SST and Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 28:2843–2846

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li T, Wang B, Chang CP, Zhang YS (2003) A theory for the Indian Ocean dipole-zonal mode. J Atmos Sci 60:2119–2135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loschnigg J, Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Compo GP, Webster PJ (2003) The Asian monsoon, the tropospheric biennial oscillation, and the Indian Ocean dipole in the NCAR CSM. J Climate 16:1617–1642

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu R (2001) Interannual variability of the summertime North Pacific subtropical high and its relation to atmospheric convection over the warm pool. J Meteor Soc Jpn 79:771–783

    Google Scholar 

  • McBride JL, Nicholls N (1983) Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. Mon Wea Rev 111:1998–2004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McBride JL, Haylock MR, Nicholls N (2003) Relationships between the Maritime Continent heat source and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. J Climate 16:2905–2914

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA (1987) The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions. Mon Wea Rev 115:27–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA (1997) The South Asian monsoon and the tropospheric biennial oscillation. J Climate 10:1921–1943

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster J (2002a) The tropospheric biennial oscillation and the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall. J Climate 15:722–744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster J (2002b) Indian monsoon GCM sensitivity experiments testing tropospheric biennial oscillation transition conditions. J Climate 15:923–944

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Loschnigg J (2003) Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical processes in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans and the TBO. J Climate 16:2138–2158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meinen CS, McPhaden MJ (2000) Observations of warm water volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Niño and La Niña. J Climate 13:3551–3559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls N (1989) Sea surface temperatures and Australian winter rainfall. J Climate 2:965–973

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nitta T, Yamada S (1989) Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J Meteor Soc Jpn 67:375–383

    Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1995) All India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993. Theor Appl Climatol 49:217–224

    Google Scholar 

  • Pierce DW (2002) The role of sea surface temperatures in interactions between ENSO and the North Pacific Oscillation. J Clim 15:1295–1308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao AS, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T (2002) Interannual variability in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean. Deep-Sea Res 49B:1549–1572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reason JCJ (2002) Sensitivity of the southern African circulation to dipole sea-surface temperature patterns in the South Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 22:377–393

    Google Scholar 

  • Reason JCJ, Mulenga HM (1999) Relationships between South African rainfall and SST anomalies in the southwest Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 19:1651–1673

    Google Scholar 

  • Reverdin G, Cadet DL, Gutzler D (1986) Interannual displacements of convection and surface circulation over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 112:43–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS, Wang X (1992) Observed tropospheric biennial variability and its relationship to the Southern Oscillation. J Climate 5:594–614

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saji NH, Yamagata T (2003) Structure of SST and surface wind variability during Indian Ocean dipole mode events: COADS observations. J Climate 16:2735–2751

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shinoda T, Alexander MA, Hendon HH (2004) Remote response of the Indian Ocean to interannual SST variations in the tropical Pacific. J Climate 17:362–372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simmonds I (2003) Modes of atmospheric variability over the Southern Ocean. J Geophys Res 108(C4):8078

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith TM, Reynolds RW (2003) Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854–1997). J Climate 16:1495–1510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terray P, Delecluse P, Labattu S, Terray L (2003) Sea surface temperature associations with the late Indian summer monsoon. Climate Dynam 21:593–618

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terray P, Guilyardi E, Fischer AS, Delecluse P (2004) Dynamics of Indian monsoon and ENSO relationships in the SINTEX coupled model. Clim Dynam (in press). DOI 10.1007/s00382-004-0479-9

    Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Compo P (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:61–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Webster PJ (1998) The annual cycle of persistence in the El Niño/SouthernOscillation. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 124:1985–2004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE (1997) The definition of El Niño. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2771–2777

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Loon H, Shea DJ (1985) The southern oscillation. Part IV: the precursors south of 15°S to the extremes of the oscillation. Mon Wea Rev 113:2063–2074

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Loon H, Meehl GA, Milliff R (2003) The southern oscillation in the early 1990s. Geophys Res Lett 30:311–314

    Google Scholar 

  • Vinayachandran PN, Saji NH, Yamagata T (1999) Response of the equatorial Indian Ocean to an unusual wind event during 1994. Geophys Res Lett 26:1613–1616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wallace JM, Gutzler DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon Wea Rev 109:784–812

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B (1995) Interdecadal changes in El Niño onset in the last four decades. J Climate 8:267–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, An S-I (2001) Why the properties of El Niño changed during the late 1970s. Geophys Res Lett 28:3709–3712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Fan Z (1999) Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:629–638

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Zhang Q (2002) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection. Part II: how the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Niño development. J Climate 15:3252–3265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Lau K-M (2001) Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: contrasts between the Indian and the Western North Pacific–East Asian monsoons. J Climate 14:4073–4090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Li T (2003) Atmosphere–warm ocean interaction and its impacts on Asian-Australian monsoon variation. J Climate 16:1195–1211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Yang S (1992) Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 118:877–926

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103(C7):14451–14510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Moore AM, Loschnigg JP, Leben RR (1999) Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–1998. Nature 401:356–360

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Clark C, Cherikova G, Fasullo J, Han W, Loschnigg J, Sahami K (2002) The Monsoon as a self-regulating coupled ocean–atmosphere system. Meteorology at the Millennium. Academic, New York, pp 198–219

    Google Scholar 

  • White WB, Chen S-C (2002) Positive feedbacks between the Antarctic circumpolar wave and the global El Niño-Southern Oscillation wave. J Geophys Res 107:29.1–29.17

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu R, Wang B (2002) A contrast of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-ENSO relationship between 1962–1977 and 1978–93. J Climate 15:3266–3279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wyrtki K (1985) Water displacements in the Pacific and the genesis of El Niño cycles. J Geophys Res 90:7129–7132

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical outputs. Bull Am Meteor Soc 78(11):2539–2558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie SP, Annamalai H, Schott FA, McCreary JP (2002) Structure and mechanisms of South Indian Ocean climate variability. J Climate 15:864–878

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu J, Chan JCL (2001) The role of the Asian-Australian monsoon system in the onset time of El Niño events. J Climate 14:418–433

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yamagata T et al (2002) The Indian Ocean dipole: a physical entity. Clivar Exch 7(2):15–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Yasunari T (1991) The monsoon year—a new concept of the climatic year in the tropics. Bull Am Meteor Soc 72:1331–1338

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu J-Y, Weng S-P, Farrara JD (2003) Ocean roles in the TBO transitions of the Indian-Australian monsoon system. J Climate 16:3072–3080

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the French Programme National d’Etude Du Climat (PNEDC). The NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data was provided through the NOAA Climate Center (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov) and SODA analysis data from the IRI data library server (http://iridl.columbia.edu). Wavelet software was provided by C. Torrence and G. Compo, and is available at URL: http://paos.colorado.edu/research/wavelets/. Computations were performed at the French Institute for Development and Resources in Scientific Computing (IDRIS). Graphics were prepared using the SAXO package of Sébastien Masson. We thank A.S. Fischer and G. Reverdin for final comments and careful rereading of the manuscript. We also thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor (J.C. Duplessy) for their comments that improved this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to P. Terray.

Appendix

Appendix

Definition of the acronyms used in the paper. The dynamical indices DU1, SSI1 and WSI1 are defined and discussed in Wang and Fan (1999) and Wang et al. (2001).

AIRI

All India rainfall index

AUSM

Australian summer monsoon

CMAP

Climate prediction center merged analysis of precipitation

DU1

Difference of the zonal wind anomalies

EAUS

East coast of Australia

ENSO

El Niño- Southern Oscillation

ERSST

Extended reconstruction of global SST

ETIO

Eastern tropical Indian Ocean

GCM

General circulation model

ISM

Indian summer monsoon

ITCZ

Inter-tropical convergence zone

MCR

Maritime Continent rainfall

SEIO

Southeast Indian Ocean

SLP

Sea level pressure

SODA

Simple ocean data assimilation

SPCZ

South Pacific convergence zone

SSI1

Southerly shear index

SST

Sea surface temperature

TBO

Tropospheric biennial oscillation

TIOD

Tropical Indian Ocean dipole

WPAC

Western equatorial PACific zonal wind anomaly

WSI1

Westerly shear index

WTIO

Western tropical Indian Ocean

Z20

Monthly mean 20°C thermocline depth anomaly

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Terray, P., Dominiak, S. & Delecluse, P. Role of the southern Indian Ocean in the transitions of the monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades. Clim Dyn 24, 169–195 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0480-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0480-3

Keywords

Navigation