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Sea-ice and its response to CO2 forcing as simulated by global climate models

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Abstract

The simulation of sea-ice in global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP1 and CMIP2) is analyzed. CMIP1 simulations are of the unpertubed “control” climate whereas in CMIP2, all models have been forced with the same 1% yr–1 increase in CO2 concentration, starting from a near equilibrium initial condition. These simulations are not intended as forecasts of climate change, but rather provide a means of evaluating the response of current climate models to the same forcing. The difference in modeled response therefore indicates the range (or uncertainty) in model sensitivity to greenhouse gas and other climatic perturbations. The results illustrate a wide range in the ability of climate models to reproduce contemporary sea-ice extent and thickness; however, the errors are not obviously related to the manner in which sea-ice processes are represented in the models (e.g. the inclusion or neglect of sea-ice motion). The implication is that errors in the ocean and atmosphere components of the climate model are at least as important. There is also a large range in the simulated sea-ice response to CO2 change, again with no obvious stratification in terms of model attributes. In contrast to results obtained earlier with a particular model, the CMIP ensemble yields rather mixed results in terms of the dependence of high-latitude warming on sea-ice initial conditions. There is an indication that, in the Arctic, models that produce thick ice in their control integration exhibit less warming than those with thin ice. The opposite tendency appears in the Antarctic (albeit with low statistical significance). There is a tendency for models with more extensive ice coverage in the Southern Hemisphere to exhibit greater Antarctic warming. Results for the Arctic indicate the opposite tendency (though with low statistical significance).

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Acknowledgements

This work would not have been possible without the generous contributions of the groups who developed the various climate models and provided the data for analysis. The model identifiers used in the text and the full name of the corresponding institutions are as follows: BMRC:Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (Australia), CCCma: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (Canada), CCSR: Centre for Climate System Research (Japan), CERFACS: Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (France), COLA: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (USA), CSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (Australia), GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (USA), GISS: Goddard Institute for Space Studies (USA), IAP: Institute for Atmospheric Physics (China), LMD: Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (France), MPI: Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie (Germany), MRI: Meteorological Research Institue (Japan), NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA), NRL: Naval Research Laboratory (USA), UKMO: United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UK). I also thank Steve Lambert for his assistance in processing the data, Slava Kharin for technical advice, and Curt Covey and the staff of PCMDI for facilitating the archival, quality control and distribution of the model data. George Boer, Bill Merryfield, Ron Stouffer and an anonymous reviewer provided helpful comments and suggestions.

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  1. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Meteorological Service of Canada Victoria, BC, Canada

    G. M. Flato

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  1. G. M. Flato
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Participating CMIP Modelling Groups

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Correspondence to G. M. Flato.

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A list of the CMIP modeling groups is included in the Acknowledgements section.

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Flato, G.M., Participating CMIP Modelling Groups. Sea-ice and its response to CO2 forcing as simulated by global climate models. Climate Dynamics 23, 229–241 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0436-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0436-7

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