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Seasonal predictability of ENSO teleconnections: the role of the remote ocean response

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Abstract

In this modelling study, the teleconnections of ENSO are studied using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), HadAM3. The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) remote from the tropical Pacific but teleconnected with ENSO is investigated. Composite cycles of El Niño and La Niña SSTs are created and imposed on HadAM3. These SSTs are imposed in different areas, with climatological SSTs elsewhere, in order to find the influences of SSTs in different regions. It is found that most of the reproducible response to ENSO is forced directly from the tropical Pacific before the peak of the event. However, during the peak and decay of ENSO, remote SSTs become increasingly influential throughout the tropics (at the 98% significance level). This could lead to extended ENSO-related predictability due to the memory of the remote oceans. The Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent SSTs are found to be particularly influential. Indian Ocean SSTAs dampen the teleconnections from the tropical Pacific and force the atmosphere above the tropical Atlantic. More generally, when a tropical SSTA is imposed, atmospheric anomalies are forced locally with anomalies of the opposite sign to the west. Some of the reproducible response to ENSO in the tropical Atlantic is forced, not directly from the tropical Pacific but from the Indian ocean, which in turn is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, delayed SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic damp the local response and force the atmosphere above the tropical Pacific in the opposite manner.

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Acknowledgements

Some HadAM3 model results and the GISST sea surface temperature dataset were provided by the UK Meterological Office. H. Spencer and J. Slingo acknowledge support through the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)-funded UK Universities’ Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme and H. Spencer also received support from the Meterological Office through a CASE studentship. We are very grateful to Meterological Office staff who gave access to their data and to the CGAM tropical group who helped us to understand it. Thanks also to Lisa Goddard and two anonymous reviewers for comments on the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Meteorology Department, University of Reading, UK

    H. Spencer & J. M. Slingo

  2. Meteorological Office, UK and Department of Mathematics, University College London, UK

    M. K. Davey

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  1. H. Spencer
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  2. J. M. Slingo
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  3. M. K. Davey
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Correspondence to H. Spencer.

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Spencer, H., Slingo, J.M. & Davey, M.K. Seasonal predictability of ENSO teleconnections: the role of the remote ocean response. Climate Dynamics 22, 511–526 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0393-1

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