Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Reconstructing Northern Hemisphere upper-level fields during World War II

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Monthly mean fields of temperature and geopotential height (GPH) from 700 to 100 hPa were statistically reconstructed for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere for the World War II period. The reconstruction was based on several hundred predictor variables, comprising temperature series from meteorological stations and gridded sea level pressure data (1939-1947) as well as a large amount of historical upper-air data (1939-1944). Statistical models were fitted in a calibration period (1948-1994) using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data set as predictand. The procedure consists of a weighting scheme, principal component analyses on both the predictor variables and the predictand fields and multiple regression models relating the two sets of principal component time series to each other. According to validation experiments, the reconstruction skill in the 1939-1944 period is excellent for GPH at all levels and good for temperature up to 500 hPa, but somewhat worse for 300 hPa temperature and clearly worse for 100 hPa temperature. Regionally, high predictive skill is found over the midlatitudes of Europe and North America, but a lower quality over Asia, the subtropics, and the Arctic. Moreover, the quality is considerably better in winter than in summer. In the 1945-1947 period, reconstructions are useful up to 300 hPa for GPH and, in winter, up to 500 hPa for temperature. The reconstructed fields are presented for selected months and analysed from a dynamical perspective. It is demonstrated that the reconstructions provide a useful tool for the analysis of large-scale circulation features as well as stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the late 1930s and early 1940s.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 6.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ambaum MHP, Hoskins BJ (2002) The NAO troposphere-stratosphere connection. J Clim 15: 1969-1978

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnston AG, Livezey RE (1987) Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon Weather Rev 115: 1083-1126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brönnimann S (2003a) Description of the 1939-1944 upper-air data set (UA39_44) Version 1.0. University of Arizona, Tucson, USA, pp 40

  • Brönnimann S (2003b) A historical upper-air data set for the 1939-1944 period. Int J Climatol 23: 769-791 DOI 10.1002/joc.914

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brönnimann S, Luterbacher J, Schmutz C, Wanner H, Staehelin J (2000) Variability of total ozone at Arosa, Switzerland, since 1931 related to atmospheric circulation indices. Geophys Res Lett 27: 2213-2216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christy JR, Spencer RW, Norris WB, Braswell WD Parker DE (2003) Error estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU/AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. J Atmos Oceanic Tech 20: 613-629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1994) Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology - a review and comparison of two techniques. Int J Climatol 14: 379-402

    Google Scholar 

  • Hartmann DL, Wallace JM, Limpasuvan V, Thompson DWJ, Holton JR (2000) Can ozone depletion and greenhouse warming interact to produce rapid climate change? Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 97: 1412-1417

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Imhoff M, Lawrence W, Easterling D, Peterson T, Karl T (2001) A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J Geophys Res 106: 23,947-23,963

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glascoe J, Sato M (1999) GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J Geophys Res 104: 30997-31022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell J, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (eds) (2003) The North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatic significance and environmental impact. AGU, Geophysical Monograph Series 134, Washington DC, USA

  • Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77: 437-471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl TR, Williams CN Jr, Quinlan FT, Boden TA (1990) United States Historical Climatology Network (HCN) Serial Temperature and Precipitation Data, Environmental Science Division, Publication No. 3404, Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, pp 389

  • Kington JA (1975) The construction of 500-millibar charts for the eastern North Atlantic-European sector from 1781. Meteorol Mag 104: 336-340

    Google Scholar 

  • Kistler R et al (2001) The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82: 247-267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein WH, Dai Y (1998) Reconstruction of monthly mean 700-mb heights from surface data by reverse specification. J Clim 11: 2136-2146

    Google Scholar 

  • Labitzke K, Naujokat B (2000) The lower Arctic stratosphere in winter since 1952. SPARC Newslett 15: 11-14

    Google Scholar 

  • Labitzke K et al (2002) The Berlin Stratospheric Data Series, CD from Meteorological Institute, Free University Berlin, Germany

  • Lanzante JR, Klein SA, Seidel DJ (2003) Temporal homogenization of monthly radiosonde temperature data. Part I: methodology. J Clim 16: 224-240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Limpasuvan V, Thompson DWJ, Hartmann DL (2004) On the life cycle of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming. J Clim (in press)

  • Lorenz EN (1956) Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction. M.I.T. Statistical Forecasting Project Report 1, Contract AF 19: 604-1566

  • Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E, Dietrich D, Rickli R, Jacobeit J, Beck C, Gyalistras D, Schmutz C, Wanner H (2002) Reconstruction of sea-level pressure fields over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500. Clim Dyn 18: 545-561 DOI 10.1007/s00382-001-0196-6

    Google Scholar 

  • Mears C, Schabel M, Wentz F (2003) A reanalysis of the MSU Channel 2 tropospheric temperature record. J Clim 16:3650-3664

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker DE, Gordon M, Cullum DPN, Sexton DMH, Folland CK, Rayner N (1997) A new gridded radiosonde temperature data base and recent temperature trends. Geophys Res Lett 24: 1499-1502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson TC, Vose RS (1997) An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature data base. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78: 2837-2849

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polansky BC (2002) Reconstructing 500-hPa height fields over the Northern Hemisphere. Msc Thesis, University of Washington, Seattle. USA, pp 38

  • Polvani LM, Waugh DW (2004) Upward wave activity flux as precursor to extreme stratospheric events and subsequent anomalous surface weather regimes. J Clim (in press)

  • Randel WJ, Wu F, Gaffen DJ (2000) Interannual variability of the tropical tropopause from radiosonde data and NCEP reanalysis. J Geophys Res 105: 15,509-15,523

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santer BD, Hnilo JJ, Wigley TML, Boyle JS, Doutriaux C, Fiorino M, Parker DE, Taylor KE (1999) Uncertainties in observationally based estimates of temperature change in the free atmosphere. J Geophys Res 104: 6305-6333

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmutz C, Gyalistras D, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2001) Reconstruction of monthly 700, 500 and 300 hPa geopotential height fields in the European and Eastern North Atlantic region for the period 1901-1947. Clim Res 18: 181-193

    Google Scholar 

  • Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (1998) The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys Res Lett 25: 1297-1300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Paolino DA (1980) The Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure data set: trends, errors, and discontinuities. Mon Weather Rev 108: 855-872

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wanner H, Brönnimann S, Casty C, Gyalistras D, Luterbacher J, Schmutz C, Stephenson D, Xoplaki E (2001) North Atlantic Oscillation - concept and studies. Surv Geophys 22: 321-381

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

S.B. was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation and the Holderbank-Foundation. J.L. was funded by the Swiss National Competence Center for Research in Climate. Support by the Stiftung Marchese Francseco Medici del Vascello is gratefully acknowledged. The reconstructed fields and corresponding error measures as well as the historical upper-air data and detailed documentation can be downloaded from the website http://sinus.unibe.ch/~broenn/UA39_44/. The authors wish to thank D. Dietrich (Univ. Bern) for statistical advice.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, PO Box 210092, Tucson, AZ 85721-0092, USA

    S. Brönnimann

  2. Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

    J. Luterbacher

  3. NCCR Climate, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

    J. Luterbacher

Authors
  1. S. Brönnimann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. J. Luterbacher
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to S. Brönnimann.

Electronic Supplementary Material

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Brönnimann, S., Luterbacher, J. Reconstructing Northern Hemisphere upper-level fields during World War II. Climate Dynamics 22, 499–510 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0391-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0391-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation