Soluble ST2, BCN-Bio-HF calculator and MAGGIC-HF score in long-term risk prediction after an urgent visit for heart failure

Abstract

Soluble ST2 (sST2) is the expression of a pathogenic process related to adverse remodeling that ultimately leads to increased mortality in heart failure (HF). Risk score models provide a comprehensive approach for mortality prediction, beyond the use of biomarkers alone. The objective was to determine the additional value of sST2 and two well-validated contemporary risk scores, BCN-Bio-HF and MAGGIC-HF, in predicting mortality and readmission in the acute setting. This prospective study included 129 patients (mean age 75 ± 9 years; 52% males) after an urgent HF visit. Baseline sST2 levels were measured and the two risk scores were calculated. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the secondary endpoint was HF readmissions. The follow-up period was 3.6 ± 1.9 years. Patients who died (46%) had higher sST2 concentrations (80.5 vs. 42.7 ng/ml; p < 0.001). The BCN-Bio-HF calculator with sST2 demonstrated the best discriminative ability for mortality prediction (area under the ROC curve: 0.792; p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis for each risk score, the MAGGIC-HF score retained its predictive value only in the model without sST2 (3-year risk: HR = 1.036; 95% CI 1.019–1.054; p < 0.001). However, the BCN-Bio-HF score maintained its prognostic value with sST2 (HR = 1.032; 95%CI 1.020–1.044; p < 0.001), as well as without sST2 (HR = 1.035; 95% CI 1.021–1.049; p < 0.001). sST2 was not associated with readmission, and only the BCN-Bio-HF risk of HF hospitalization showed independent predictive value (OR = 1.040; 95% CI 1.005–1.076; p = 0.023). For predicting long-term mortality in HF in the emergency department, the BCN-Bio-HF calculator with sST2 demonstrated superior discrimination and allows estimation of the risk of HF hospitalizations.