Abstract
Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina (INCSC) in recent decades. Given the areas with large gross domestic product (GDP) in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming, understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day) and the maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) is critical for adaptation planning in this region. Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5-8.5) are investigated. Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region, while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming. The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region, rather than the change of GDP. If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP, the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan in South China, as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina. Thus, timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions. Moreover, from the sub-regional average viewpoint, over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.
摘要
近几十年来, 极端降水和干旱导致华南和中南半岛地区(INCSC)遭受了严重的经济损失. 鉴于INCSC地区的经济产出的大值区集中分布在沿海地区, 并且受全球变暖影响较大, 了解未来最大连续5天降水量(RX5day)和最大连续无雨天数(CDD)可能带来的经济影响对该地区的适应规划至关重要. 基于耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6)发布的最新数据, 利用偏差校正, 研究了在共享社会经济路径(SSP5-8.5)下, 降水极端事件未来变化对INCSC地区经济的影响. 结果表明, 未来RX5day将在INCSC地区显著加强, 而在全球变暖的情况下, INCSC大多数地区的CDD将延长. 气候变化的影响始终主导着INCSC地区的经济影响. 如果仅考虑气候变化对经济的影响, 未来降水极端事件的变化将对华南的湖南、 江西、 福建、 广东和海南以及中南半岛的马来半岛和柬埔寨南部的经济带来更大的影响. 因此, 对于这些地区, 及时制定区域性适应战略至关重要. 此外, 从区域平均水平来看, 超过三分之二的CMIP6模式一致明确保持较低的全球变暖水平将减少INCSC地区由极端降水带来的经济影响.
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The work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42288101), the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB40030204), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42275032).
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• Heavy precipitation will intensify throughout the South China and Indochina, while the dry spell duration will lengthen in most regions.
• Timely adaptation strategies are urgent for specific provinces in South China, the Malay Peninsula, and southern Cambodia in Indochina.
• Maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts induced by heavy precipitation change over South China and Indochina.
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Tang, B., Hu, W., Duan, A. et al. Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 1184–1200 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3158-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3158-7