Abstract
Based on the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo-Typhoon Center best-track data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset, extratropical transitioning (ET) tropical cyclones (ETCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1951–2021 are classified into six clusters using the fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) according to their track patterns. The characteristics of the six hard-clustered ETCs with the highest membership coefficient are shown. Most tropical cyclones (TCs) that were assigned to clusters C2, C5, and C6 made landfall over eastern Asian countries, which severely threatened these regions. Among landfalling TCs, 93.2% completed their ET after landfall, whereas 39.8% of ETCs completed their transition within one day. The frequency of ETCs over the WNP has decreased in the past four decades, wherein cluster C5 demonstrated a significant decrease on both interannual and interdecadal timescales with the expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). This large-scale circulation pattern is favorable for C2 and causes it to become the dominant track pattern, owning to it containing the largest number of intensifying ETCs among the six clusters, a number that has increased insignificantly over the past four decades. The surface roughness variation and three-dimensional background circulation led to C5 containing the maximum number of landfalling TCs and a minimum number of intensifying ETCs. Our results will facilitate a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of ET events and associated environment background fields, which will benefit the effective monitoring of these events over the WNP.
摘要
基于日本东京台风中心最佳路径数据和NCEP-NCAR再分析资料, 利用模糊C均值聚类方法(FCM)将1951–2021年西北太平洋变性热带气旋(ETCs)按照其移动路径分为6类. 本文分析了隶属度系数最高的6个硬聚类的ETCs的特征. 研究结果显示: 归入C2、 C5和C6类的大部分ETCs在东亚地区登陆、 可对途经地区构成严重威胁. 93.2%的登陆ETCs登陆后变性, 其中39.8%在登陆后1天内完成变性. 过去40年, 西北太平洋ETCs数目减少, 其中C5类在年际和年代际时间尺度上均随西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)的扩大和增强而显著减少. 大多数变性后增强的热带气旋(TCs)属于C2类. 过去40年, 大尺度环流形势的变化有利于C2类ETCs的发展, 使其数目非显著性增加, 成为主导的路径型. 地表粗糙度变化和三维背景环流导致C5类包含了最多的登陆ETCs, 但是变性后增强的TCs数目最少. 本文的研究结果有助于更好地理解TCs变性事件的时空分布以及相关的环流背景场特征, 有利于西北太平洋TCs变性事件的监测.
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Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42075053 and 41975128). The authors would like to thank Mr. Hyeong-Seog Kim, Joo-Hong Kim, et al., who provided a detailed description concerning the adoption of FCM in TC tracks. We also thank the Nanjing Hurricane Translation for reviewing the English language quality of this paper.
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• The ETCs over the WNP have decreased and exhibited a poleward-migrating trend over the past several decades, especially after the 1980s.
• The influence of WPSH on the track and number of ETCs varies from cluster to cluster. Cluster C5 contributes the most to the annual and interdecadal decrease of ETCs.
• The configurations of the three-dimensional environmental fields have significant but different effects on the ET locations and their subsequent re-intensification.
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Huang, H., Wu, D., Wang, Y. et al. Track-Pattern-Based Characteristics of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 1251–1263 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2330-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2330-4