The effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity has been an important scientific issue for a few decades. Although theory and modeling suggest the intensification of tropical cyclones in a warming climate, there are uncertainties in the assessed and projected responses of tropical cyclone intensity to climate change. While a few comprehensive reviews have already provided an assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity including tropical cyclone intensity, this review focuses mainly on the understanding of the effect of climate change on basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity, including indices for basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity, historical datasets used for intensity trend detection, environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity, detection and simulation of tropical cyclone intensity change, and some issues on the assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity. In addition to the uncertainty in the historical datasets, intertwined natural variabilities, the considerable model bias in the projected large-scale environment, and poorly simulated inner-core structures of tropical cyclones, it is suggested that factors controlling the basin-wide intensity can be different from individual tropical cyclones since the assessment of the effect of climate change treats tropical cyclones in a basin as a whole.
尽管理论和数值模拟都表明, 全球变暖背景下热带气旋的强度会增加, 但是评估和预测热带气旋强度对气候变化的响应存在很多不确定性。近年来一些文章已经综述了气候变化对热带气旋活动的影响, 包括对热带气旋强度的影响, 本文主要关注在气候变化影响热带气旋强度机理认识方面的进展, 内容包括表征海盆尺度热带气旋强度的指数、用于发现热带气旋强度趋势的历史数据集、影响热带气旋强度的环境因子、热带气旋强度变化的观测分析和数值模拟, 以及气候变化影响热带气旋强度研究存在的一些问题。除了历史数据集的不确定性、交织在一起的自然变率、模式预测大尺度环境存在的偏差、模拟热带气旋内核结构能力不足等因素外, 评估和预测气候变化对热带气旋强度影响的不确定性还来自影响海盆尺度热带气旋强度的机理不太清楚, 因为影响海盆尺度热带气旋强度的机理不同于单个热带气旋。
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This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41730961, 41675051, 41675072, and 41922033).
• Our current understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity is reviewed.
• Factors controlling the basin-wide intensity can be different from individual tropical cyclones.
• Issues on the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity are discussed.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Climate Change and Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity.
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Wu, L., Zhao, H., Wang, C. et al. Understanding of the Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Intensity: A Review. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 205–221 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1026-x
- tropical cyclone
- climate change
- intensity change