Abstract
Long-term, ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic region. The fixed station was established in 1989, and conventional radiation observations started much later in 2008. In this study, a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR is developed using ground meteorological observation data, and a high-precision, long-term DGSR dataset is constructed. Then, the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station, Antarctica is analyzed. The RF model, which performs better than other models, shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R2 of 0.984, root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ m−2, and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ m−2. The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increases during 1990–2004 and then begins to decrease after 2004. Note that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurs during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this station. In addition to clouds and water vapor, bad weather conditions (such as snowfall, which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) are the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this station. The high-precision, long-term estimated DGSR dataset enables further study and understanding of the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow, ice, and atmosphere.
摘 要
自1989年起, 中国在东南极拉斯曼丘陵建立中山站, 并开始地面常规气象要素业务观测, 但辐射观测始于2008年. 长期地面辐射资料的缺失, 为定量揭示极区地表辐射特征、 长期趋势变化和极区卫星产品验证带来挑战. 本研究基于南极中山站地面气象观测数据结合随机森林(RF)模型, 构建了1989年以来高精度的长时间序列日太阳总辐射 (DGSR) 历史数据集. 本文采用的RF模型具有超高的历史估算性能, 其精度指标R2为0.984, 均方根误差为1.377 MJ m-2, 平均绝对误差为0.828 MJ m-2. 此外, 对DGSR历史数据集进行长期趋势变化及其影响因子研究的结果表明: DGSR年异常值在1990 ~ 2004年呈增加趋势, 于2005年开始下降, 且年最大年异常值出现在2004/05年, 这主要与该站的降水日数变化有关. 除了云层和水汽外, 恶劣的天气条件(如降雪, 导致能见度低, 日照时间和太阳辐射减少)也是影响该站太阳辐射变化的主因之一.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41941010, 41771064 and 41776195), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFC1400303), and the Basic Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Grant No. 2018Z001). We greatly appreciate the help from the Polar Research Institute of China and the Antarctic expeditioners at the Chinese Zhongshan Station. The long-term (March 1989-February 2020) estimated DGSR dataset can be acquired in the Mendeley data repository (data identification number: https://doi.org/10.17632/2y2mmhzvcx.1).
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Article Highlights
• A thirty-year DGSR dataset, which was produced by combining in situ meteorological observation records with a random forest model, is presented.
• The RF model shows the best performance for estimating historical DGSR with an R2 of 0.984, root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ m−2, and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ m−2.
• The long-term DGSR trend generally increases during 1990–2004 and then begins to decrease after 2004 at Zhongshan Station.
• Clouds, water vapor, and abnormal weather events in Antarctica are major factor affecting solar radiation.
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Zeng, Z., Wang, Z., Ding, M. et al. Estimation and Long-term Trend Analysis of Surface Solar Radiation in Antarctica: A Case Study of Zhongshan Station. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 38, 1497–1509 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0386-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0386-6