This study investigates the recent near-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Peninsula. We make use of available surface observations, ECMWF’s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, as well as numerical simulations, allowing us to contrast different data sources. We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km (PWRF-45) and 15 km (PWRF-15) spatial resolutions for the period 1991-2015. In addition, we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain (~50 km) for further comparisons. Results show that there is a marked windward warming trend except during summer. This windward warming trend is particularly notable in the autumn season and likely to be associated with the recent deepening of the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea low and warm advection towards the Antarctic Peninsula. On the other hand, an overall summer cooling is characterized by the strengthening of the Weddell Sea low as well as an anticyclonic trend over the Amundsen Sea accompanied by northward winds. The persistent cooling trend observed at the Larsen Ice Shelf station is not captured by ERA-Interim, whereas hindcast simulations indicate that there is a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling. Furthermore, larger temporal correlations and lower differences exhibited by PWRF-15 illustrate the existence of the added value in the higher spatial resolution simulation.
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This work was funded by FONDAPCONICYT (Grant No. 15110009). D. B. acknowledges support from CONICYT-PAI (Grant No. 77190080). This paper is Contribution Number 1588 of the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center. The authors acknowledge two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. DB acknowledges the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Expert Group on Operation Meteorology in the Antarctic (OPMet) for a partial funding award for the 14th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (WAMC) as well as the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) meeting in Charleston, SC, USA, between 25 and 28 June 2019. We thank David B. REUSCH (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, New Mexico Technology), Rodrigo Delgado URZÚA (Dirección General de Aeronáutica Civil, Chile), Kevin MANNING (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado), Andrew ORR (British Antarctic Survey) and Pranab DEB (Indian Institute of Technology) for useful discussions on the Polar-WRF simulations. We are grateful for data from the SCARREADER dataset and we wish to acknowledge ECMWF for ERAInterim and ERA5 data. The Polar-WRF simulations were performed within a project entitled “Simulaciones climáticas regionales para el continente Antártico y territorio insular Chileno” funded by the Chilean Ministry of Environment. This research was partially supported by the Basal Grant AFB 170001 and the supercomputing infrastructure of the NLHPC (ECM-02:Powered@ NLHPC). The authors appreciate the support of Amazon Web Services (AWS) for the grants PS_R_FY2019_Q1_CR2 & PS_R_ FY2019_Q2_CR2, which allowed us to execute the Polar-WRF simulations on the AWS cloud infrastructure. We thank Francisca MUÑOZ, Nancy VALDEBENITO and Mirko DEL HOYO at CR2 for post-processing of Polar-WRF simulations.
• Recent near-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Peninsula are assessed using observations, reanalysis and numerical simulations.
• Observed trends show contrasts between summer and autumn. An annual warming (cooling) trend is notable at San Martin (Larsen Ice Shelf) station.
• Unlike the reanalysis, numerical simulations indicate a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling at the annual time scale.
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Bozkurt, D., Bromwich, D.H., Carrasco, J. et al. Recent Near-surface Temperature Trends in the Antarctic Peninsula from Observed, Reanalysis and Regional Climate Model Data. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 37, 477–493 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9183-x
- dynamical downscaling
- cloud computing
- added value
- Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea
- Weddell Sea
- temperature trend