Adams, J. B., M. E. Mann, and C. M. Ammann, 2003: Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature, 426, 274–278, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02101.
Bethke, I., S. Outten, O. H. Otterå, E. Hawkins, S. Wagner, M. Sigl, and P. Thorne, 2017: Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability. Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 799–805, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3394.
Butler, A. H., L. M. Polvani, and C. Deser, 2014: Separating the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways of El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections. Environmental Research Letters, 9, 024014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024014.
Dee, S. G., K. M. Cobb, J. Emile-Geay, T. R. Ault, R. L. Edwards, H. Cheng, and C. D. Charles, 2020: No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium. Science, 367, 1477–1481, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax2000.
Ding, Y. N., J. A. Carton, G. A. Chepurin, G. Stenchikov, A. Robock, L. T. Sentman, and J. P. Krasting, 2014: Ocean response to volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 119, 5622–5637, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jc009780.
Emile-Geay, J., R. Seager, M. A. Cane, E. R. Cook, and G. H. Haug, 2008: Volcanoes and ENSO over the past millennium. J. Climate, 21, 3134–3148, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1884.1.
Fischer, E. M., J. Luterbacher, E. Zorita, S. F. B. Tett, C. Casty, and H. Wanner, 2007: European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006g1027992.
Gagné, M. È., M. C. Kirchmeier-Young, N. P. Gillett, and J. C. Fyfe, 2017: Arctic sea ice response to the eruptions of Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo. J. Geophys. Res., 122, 8071–8078, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd027038.
Gao, C. C., A. Robock, and C. Ammann, 2008: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D23111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010239.
Iles, C. E., and G. C. Hegerl, 2014: The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models. Environmental Research Letters, 9, 104012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012.
Khodri, M., and Coauthors, 2017: Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa. Nature Communications, 8, 778, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00755-6.
Kobayashi, S., and Coauthors, 2015: The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001.
Kravitz, B., and Coauthors, 2015: The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): Simulation design and preliminary results. Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 3379–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015.
Lenssen, N. J. L., G. A. Schmidt, J. E. Hansen, M. J. Menne, A. Persin, R. Ruedy, and D. Zyss, 2019: Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model. J. Geophys. Res., 124, 6307–6326, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029522.
Li, J. B., S.-P. Xie, E. R. Cook, G. Huang, R. D’Arrigo, F. Liu, J. Ma, and X.-T. Zheng, 2011: Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium. Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 114–118, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1086.
Lim, H.-G., S.-W. Yeh, J.-S. Kug, Y.-G. Park, J.-H. Park, R. Park, and C.-K. Song, 2016: Threshold of the volcanic forcing that leads the El Niño-like warming in the last millennium: Results from the ERIK simulation. Climate Dyn., 46, 3725–3736, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2799-3.
Liu, F., C. Xing, L. Y. Sun, B. Wang, D. L. Chen, and J. Liu, 2018b: How do tropical, northern hemispheric, and southern hemispheric volcanic eruptions affect ENSO under different initial ocean conditions? Geophys Res. Lett., 45, 13 041–13 049, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018g1080315.
Liu, F., J. Chai, B. Wang, J. Liu, X. Zhang, and Z. Y. Wang, 2016: Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions. Scientific Reports, 4, 24331, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep24331.
Liu, F., J. B. Li, B. Wang, J. Liu, T. Li, G. Huang, and Z. Y. Wang, 2018a: Divergent El Niño responses to volcanic eruptions at different latitudes over the past millennium. Climate Dyn., 40, 3799–3812, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3846-z.
Liu, F., T. L. Zhao, B. Wang, J. Liu, and W. B. Luo, 2018c: Different global precipitation responses to solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gas forcings. J. Geophys. Res., 123, 4060–4072, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017jd027391.
Maher, N., S. McGregor, M. H. England, and A. Sen Gupta, 2015: Effects of volcanism on tropical variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6024–6033, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015g1064751.
Man, W. M., and T. J. Zhou, 2014: Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium. Chinese Science Bulletin, 49, 4123–4129, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-014-0404-5.
McGregor, S., and A. Timmermann, 2011: The effect of explosive tropical volcanism on ENSO. J. Climate, 24, 2178–2191, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3990.1.
Miller, G. H., and Coauthors, 2012: Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011g1050168.
Newhall, C. G., and S. Self, 1982: The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism. J. Geophys. Res., 87, 1231–1238, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC087iC02p01231.
Niemeier, U., and S. Tilmes, 2017: Sulfur injections for a cooler planet. Science, 357, 246–248, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan3317.
Ohba, M., H. Shiogama, T. Yokohata, and M. Watanabe, 2013: Impact of strong tropical volcanic eruptions on ENSO simulated in a coupled GCM. J. Climate, 24, 5169–5182, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00471.1.
Otterå, O. H., M. Bentsen, H. Drange, and L. L. Suo, 2010: External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability. Nature Geoscience, 3, 688–694, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo955.
Perlwitz, J., and H.-F. Graf, 1995: The statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the northern hemisphere in winter. J. Climate, 8, 2281–2295, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2281:tscbta>2.0.co;2.
Polvani, L. M., A. Banerjee, and A. Schmidt, 2019: Northern Hemisphere continental winter warming following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption: Reconciling models and observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19, 6351–6366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6351-2019.
Predybaylo, E., G. L. Stenchikov, A. T. Wittenberg, and F. R. Zeng, 2017: Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO. J. Geophys. Res., 122, 925–947, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd025796.
Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670.
Robock, A., 2000: Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev. Geophys., 38, 191–219, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998RG000054.
Robock, A., 2002: Pinatubo eruption. The climatic aftermath. Science, 294, 1242–1244, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1069903.
Robock, A., and J. P. Mao, 1992: Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 2405–2408, https://doi.org/10.1029/92g102627.
Sato, M., J. E. Hansen, M. P. McCormick, and J. B. Pollack, 1993: Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850–1990. J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22–22 994, https://doi.org/10.1029/93jd02553.
Schneider, D. P., C. M. Ammann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, and D. S. Kaufman, 2009: Climate response to large, high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Community Climate System Model. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D15101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd011222.
Sear, C. B., P. M. Kelly, P. D. Jones, and C. M. Goodess, 1987: Global surface-temperature responses to major volcanic eruptions. Nature, 330, 365–367, https://doi.org/10.1038/330365a0.
Self, S., M. R. Rampino, J. Zhao, and M. G. Katz, 1997: Volcanic aerosol perturbations and strong El Niño events: No general correlation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1247–1250, https://doi.org/10.1029/97g101127.
Sigl, M., and Coauthors, 2015: Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2:500 years. Nature, 523, 543–549, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565.
Slawinska, J., and A. Robock, 2018: Impact of volcanic eruptions on decadal to centennial fluctuations of arctic sea ice extent during the last millennium and on initiation of the little ice age. J. Climate, 31, 2145–2167, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0498.1.
Stenchikov, G., A. Robock, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, K. Hamilton, and S. Ramachandran, 2002: Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption: Effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd002090.
Stevenson, S., B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Fasullo, and E. Brady, 2016: “El Niño Like” hydroclimate responses to last millennium volcanic eruptions. J. Climate, 29, 2907–2921, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0239.1.
Tilmes, S., and Coauthors, 2013: The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (Geo-MIP). J. Geophys. Res., 118, 11 036–11 058, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50868.
Tilmes, S., and Coauthors, 2019: Reaching 1.5°C and 2.0°C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. Earth System Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-76.
Trenberth, K. E., and A. G. Dai, 2007: Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007g1030524.
Wang, T., D. Guo, Y. Q. Gao, H. Wang, F. Zheng, Y. Zhu, J. Miao, and Y. Hu, 2018: Modulation of ENSO evolution by strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Climate Dyn., 51, 2433–2453, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4021-2.
Watanabe, M., M. Chikira, Y. Imada, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Convective control of ENSO simulated in MIROC. J. Climate, 24, 543–562, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3878.1.
Xing, C., F. Liu, B. Wang, D. L. Chen, J. Liu, and B. Liu, 2020: Boreal winter surface air temperature responses to large tropical volcanic eruptions in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 33, 2407–2426, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0186.1.
Xu, Y. Y., and Coauthors, 2020: Climate engineering to mitigate the projected 21st-century terrestrial drying of the Americas: Carbon Capture vs. Sulfur Injection? Earth System Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-2.
Zanchettin, D., C. Timmreck, H.-F. Graf, A. Rubino, S. Lorenz, K. Lohmann, K. Krüger, and J. H. Jungclaus, 2011: Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Climate Dyn., 39, 419–444, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1167-1.
Zanchettin, D., O. Bothe, H. F. Graf, S. J. Lorenz, J. Luterbacher, C. Timmreck, and J. H. Jungclaus, 2013: Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 4090–4106, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50229.
Zuo, M., T. J. Zhou, and W. M. Man, 2019: Wetter global arid regions driven by volcanic eruptions. J. Geophys. Res., 124, 13 648–13 662, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd031171.
This work was primarily supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975107 and 41971108). We would like to thank Mr. Faxin CHEN for providing the photo shown in Fig. 1a. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model outputs. This paper is ESMC Contribution No. 306.
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, F., Xing, C., Li, J. et al. Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Niño and Lead to Eurasian Warming?. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 37, 663–670 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-2041-z