Abstract
The linkage between the Arctic and midlatitudes has received much attention recently due to the rapidly changing climate. Many investigations have been conducted to reveal the relationship between the Arctic and Eurasian extreme events from the perspective of climatological statistics. As a prediction source for extreme events in Eurasia, Arctic conditions are crucial for extreme event predictions. Therefore, it is urgent to explore the Arctic influence on the predictability of Eurasian extreme events due to the large uncertainties in Arctic conditions. Considering the sensitivity and nonlinearity of the atmospheric circulations in midlatitude to Arctic conditions, it is necessary to investigate the Arctic influences on Eurasian extreme weather events in case studies at weather time scales. Previous studies indicate that only perturbations in specific patterns have fast growth. Thus, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach is recommended for exploring the uncertainties in Arctic initial and boundary conditions and their synergistic effect on Eurasian extreme events. Moreover, the mechanism for extreme event formation may differ in different cases. Therefore, more extreme cases should be investigated to reach robust conclusions.
摘要
近年来, 随着气候的快速变化, 北极与中纬度地区之间的联系得到了广泛的关注, 许多研究从气候统计的角度研究了北极与欧亚极端事件的关系. 作为欧亚极端天气事件预报的一个因子, 北极的状态对极端事件的预报有着重要的影响. 然而, 观测资料的稀少导致北极状态存在着较大的不确定性, 这也促使我们去研究北极状态的不确定性对欧亚极端事件可预报性的影响. 鉴于中纬度大气环流对北极状态的敏感性和非线性, 需要在天气时间尺度上进行个例分析, 以研究北极对欧亚极端天气事件的影响. 前人的工作表明, 具有特定结构的扰动会快速地发展. 因此, 我们推荐使用条件非线性最优扰动方法来研究北极初始条件和边界条件的不确定性以及二者协同效应对欧亚极端事件的影响. 另外, 极端事件形成的机制在不同的个例间可能存在差异, 为此, 需要研究尽可能多的个例以获得可靠的结论.
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The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers and the Executive Editor-in-Chief for their insightful comments, which have helped improve the paper. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41790475).
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Article Highlights:
• The Arctic is a prediction source for Eurasian extreme events, but data from the Arctic have large uncertainties.
• The influence of Arctic uncertainties on extreme weather events should be investigated in case studies at weather time scales.
• Uncertainties in the Arctic initial and boundary conditions and their synergistic effect on Eurasian extreme events should be studied with optimization algorithms.
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Dai, G., Mu, M. Influence of the Arctic on the Predictability of Eurasian Winter Extreme Weather Events. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 37, 307–317 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-9222-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-9222-7