Abstract
Low visibility episodes (visibility < 1000 m) were studied by applying the anomaly-based weather analysis method. A regional episode of low visibility associated with a coastal fog that occurred from 27 to 28 January 2016 over Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, Zhejiang Province, East China, was first examined. Some basic features from the anomalous weather analysis for this case were identified: (1) the process of low visibility mainly caused by coastal fog was a direct response to anomalous temperature inversion in the lower troposphere, with a warm center around the 925 hPa level, which was formed by a positive geopotential height (GPH) anomaly in the upper troposphere and a negative GPH anomaly near the surface; (2) the positive humidity anomaly was conducive to the formation of coastal fog and rain; (3) regional coastal fog formed at the moment when the southwesterly wind anomalies transferred to northeasterly wind anomalies. Other cases confirmed that the low visibility associated with coastal fog depends upon low-level inversion, a positive humidity anomaly, and a change of wind anomalies from southwesterly to northeasterly, rain and stratus cloud amount. The correlation coefficients of six-hourly inversion, 850–925-hPa-averaged temperature, GPH and humidity anomalies against visibility are −0.31, 0.40 and −0.48, respectively, reaching the 99% confidence level in the first half-years of 2015 and 2016. By applying the anomaly-based weather analysis method to medium-range model output products, such as ensemble prediction systems, the anomalous temperature-pressure pattern and humidity—wind pattern can be used to predict the process of low visibility associated with coastal fog at several days in advance.
摘要
本文应用扰动天气分析方法于低能见度事件(能见度 < 1000 m)的分析及预测. 通过分析2016年1月27–28日发生在宁波-舟山港的区域性海雾低能见度事件个例, 本文发现了下列有利于引起宁波-舟山港低能见度的大气扰动特征: (1)海雾引起的低能见度是直接对大气低层扰动逆温的响应, 而该逆温形成于高层正位势扰动与近地面负位势扰动之间; (2)大气正比湿扰动有利于产生海雾及降水; (3)区域性海雾主要出现在西南风扰动转东北风扰动的时刻. 历史个例分析再次确认了海雾相关的低能见度事件依赖于大气低层扰动逆温, 正比湿扰动, 扰动风从西南风转东北风, 降水及层云等特征. 2015–2016年宁波-舟山港的能见度与850–925 hPa 平均气温扰动, 位势扰动, 比湿扰动的相关系数分别是−0.31, 0.40, −0.48(达到99%可信度). 扰动天气分析方法与中期数值模式产品的结合可以提前几天预报未来的海雾低能见度极端事件.
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The authors wish to thank the editor and anonymous reviewers, whose constructive suggestions greatly improved the manuscript. This study was financed by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41775067).
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Article Highlights
• Anomaly-based weather analysis is a useful method for extracting and visualizing the atmospheric conditions that induce coastal fog.
• Coastal fog mainly results from lower-tropospheric anomalous temperature inversion and specific humidity.
• Coastal fog can be predicted several days in advance by applying anomaly-based weather analysis to model products.
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Qian, W., Leung, J.CH., Chen, Y. et al. Applying Anomaly-based Weather Analysis to the Prediction of Low Visibility Associated with the Coastal Fog at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in East China. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 36, 1060–1077 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8252-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8252-5