Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

, Volume 34, Issue 8, pp 977–982

Unprecedented warming revealed from multi-proxy reconstruction of temperature in southern China for the past 160 years

  • Yang Liu
  • Jingyun Zheng
  • Zhixin Hao
  • Xuezhen Zhang
Original Paper

Abstract

Using the southern limit of snowfall recorded in Chinese documents, chronologies of tree-ring width, and tree-ring stable oxygen isotope (δ18O), the annual temperature anomaly in southern China during 1850–2009 is reconstructed using the method of signal decomposition and synthesis. The results show that the linear trend was 0.47°C (100 yr)−1 over 1871–2009, and the two most rapid warming intervals occurred in 1877–1938 and 1968–2007, at rates of 0.125°C (10 yr)−1 and 0.258°C (10 yr)−1, respectively. The decadal variation shows that the temperature in the moderate warm interval of the 1910s–1930s was notably lower than that of the 1980s–2000s, which suggests that the warming since the 1980s was unprecedented for the past 160 years, though a warming hiatus existed in the 2000s. Additionally, there was a rapid cooling starting from the 1860s, followed by a cold interval until the early 1890s, with the coldest years in 1892 and 1893. A slight temperature decline was also found from the 1940s to the late 1960s. This study provides an independent case to validate the global warming for the past 160 years and its hiatus recently, because the proxy data are not affected by urbanization.

Key words

centennial warming temperature reconstruction multi-proxy southern China 

摘要

利用历史文献中的降雪南界、树轮宽度及树轮稳定氧同位素(δ18O)等多种代用资料, 通过高低频信号分解回归再合成方法, 重建了1850–2009年华南地区年平均气温变化序列. 结果显示: 1871–2009年华南气温变化的线性趋势为0.47°C (100 yr)−1, 其中1877–1938和1968–2007年两个时段升温最为强劲, 速率分别达到0.125°C (10 yr)−1和0.258°C (10 yr)−1. 年代际尺度上暖期包括1910s–1930s和1980s–2000s, 后者温暖程度显著高于前者, 是过去160年间的最暖时段, 不过2000年后增暖趋势有所停滞. 此外, 从1860s开始华南气温迅速下降, 随后的寒冷阶段持续到1890s, 其中1892和1893年达到最低值; 另一段降温期出现在1940s-1860s, 但降温速率较缓. 代用资料不受城市热岛效应影响, 基于此重建的温度序列独立于气温观测资料, 为研究20世纪全球变暖特征和近年来的增暖停滞提供了新证据.

关键词

百年尺度增暖 气温重建 多源代用资料 华南地区 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Cao, L. J., P. Zhao, Z. W. Yan, P. Jones, Y. N. Zhu, Y. Yu, and G. L. Tang, 2013: Instrumental temperature series in eastern and central China back to the nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 118(15), 8197–8207.Google Scholar
  2. Cao, S.-J., F.-X. Cao, and W.-H. Xiang, 2012: Tree-ring-based reconstruction of temperature variations from May to July since 1840 in Yanling county of Hunan province, China. Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology, 32(4), 10–14. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  3. Central Weather Bureau, 1975: Daily Precipitation Data in China during 1951 to 1970. Central Weather Bureau, Beijing, 1–681. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  4. Central Weather Bureau, 1978: Weather Days Data in China during 1961 to 1970. Central Weather Bureau, Beijing, 1–741. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  5. Chen, F., Y.-J. Yuan, W.-S. Wei, S.-L. Yu, and T.-W. Zhang, 2012: Tree ring-based winter temperature reconstruction for Changting, Fujian, subtropical region of Southeast China, since 1850: Linkages to the Pacific Ocean. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 109, 141–151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. China Meteorological Administration (CMA), 2016: China Climate Change Bulletin, 2015. Science Press, Beijing, 97 pp. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  7. Ding, L. L., Q. S. Ge, J. Y. Zheng, and Z. X. Hao, 2015: Variations in annual winter mean temperature in South China since 1736. Boreas, 45(2), 252–259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Ding, Y. H., and H. J. Wang, 2016: Newly acquired knowledge on the scientific issues related to climate change over the recent 100 years in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 61(10), 1029–1041. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  9. Editorial Committee of the Second China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change (EC-SCNARCC), 2011: The Second China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Science Press, Beijing, 711 pp. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  10. Editorial Committee of the Third China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change (EC-TCNARCC), 2015: The Third China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Science Press, Beijing, 903 pp. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  11. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1535 pp.Google Scholar
  12. Jones, P. D., D. H. Lister, T. J. Osborn, C. Harpham, M. Salmon, and C. P. Morice, 2012: Hemispheric and large-scale landsurface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2010. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05127.Google Scholar
  13. Tang, G.-L., and G.-Y. Ren, 2005: Reanalysis of surface air temperature change of the last 100 years over China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 10(4), 791–798. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  14. Wang, S. H., 2013: Reconstruction of 232 Years Montane Climate of Taiwan from Stable Oxygen Isotope Ratios in Abies kawakamii Tree Ring. M.S. thesis, NTU, 64 pp. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  15. Wang, S. W., J. L. Ye, D. Y. Gong, J. H. Zhu, and T. D. Yao, 1998: Construction of mean annual temperature series for the last one hundred years in China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 9(4), 392–401. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  16. Wu, Z. H., and N. E. Huang, 2009: Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: A noise-assisted data analysis method. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 1(1), 1–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Yan, H.-M., M. Zhong, and Y.-Z. Zhu, 2004: Determination of the degree of freedom of digital filtered time series with an application to the correlation analysis between the length of day and the Southern oscillation index. Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics, 28(1), 120–126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Yang, B., D. M. Sonechkin, N. M. Datsenko, N. N. Ivashchenko, J. J. Liu, and C. Qin, 2011: Eigen analysis of tree-ring records: Part 1, a limited representativeness of regional curve. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 2011, 106(3), 489–497.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Zhang, D. E., 2013: A Compendium of Chinese Meteorological Records of the Last 3000 Years. Jiangsu Education Press, Nanjing, 2797–3795. (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  20. Zhao, P., P. Jones, L. J. Cao, Z. W. Yan, S. Y. Zha, Y. N. Zhu, Y. Yu, and G. L. Tang, 2014: Trend of surface air temperature in eastern China and associated large-scale climate variability over the last 100 years. J. Climate, 27(12), 4693–4703.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Zheng, J. Y., Y. Liu, and Z. X. Hao, 2015: Annual temperature reconstruction by signal decomposition and synthesis from multi-proxies in Xinjiang, China, from 1850 to 2001. PLoS One, 10(12), e0144210, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Zheng, J. Y., Y. Liu, Z. X. Hao, and Q. S. Ge, 2016: Phenological cold/warm events recorded in historical documents and quantitative proxies for winter temperature in Southern China during the past 500 years. Quaternary Sciences, 36(3), 690–701. (in Chinese)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Chinese National Committee for International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yang Liu
    • 1
    • 2
  • Jingyun Zheng
    • 1
    • 2
  • Zhixin Hao
    • 1
    • 2
  • Xuezhen Zhang
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations