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Analysis of spatial autocorrelation patterns of heavy and super-heavy rainfall in Iran

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Abstract

Rainfall is a highly variable climatic element, and rainfall-related changes occur in spatial and temporal dimensions within a regional climate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial autocorrelation changes of Iran’s heavy and super-heavy rainfall over the past 40 years. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data of 664 meteorological stations between 1971 and 2011 are used. To analyze the changes in rainfall within a decade, geostatistical techniques like spatial autocorrelation analysis of hot spots, based on the Getis-Ord Gi statistic, are employed. Furthermore, programming features in MATLAB, Surfer, and GIS are used. The results indicate that the Caspian coast, the northwest and west of the western foothills of the Zagros Mountains of Iran, the inner regions of Iran, and southern parts of Southeast and Northeast Iran, have the highest likelihood of heavy and super-heavy rainfall. The spatial pattern of heavy rainfall shows that, despite its oscillation in different periods, the maximum positive spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall includes areas of the west, northwest and west coast of the Caspian Sea. On the other hand, a negative spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall is observed in central Iran and parts of the east, particularly in Zabul. Finally, it is found that patterns of super-heavy rainfall are similar to those of heavy rainfall.

摘 要

降水是一项非常灵活多变的气候影响因素, 而降水相关时空演变发生在区域气候尺度上. 本文旨在调研伊朗过去 40 年暴雨和特大暴雨空间自相关变化特征. 基于此研究目的, 使用了 1971–2011 年 664 个气象台站日降水资料. 为分析每个十年内的降水变化规律, 应用了基于 Getis-Ord Gi统计识别(简称G指数)热点分析法的空间自相关分析地质统计学技术, 以及 MATLAB 科学计算语言, Surfer 绘图软件和地理信息系统(GIS). 结果显示: 里海沿岸, 伊朗扎格罗斯山脉西侧山麓西北部和西部地区, 伊朗内陆区域, 以及伊朗东南和东北的南部地区, 均为暴雨和特大暴雨最高频发地带. 从暴雨空间分布可见, 尽管在不同时间段暴雨高频发区位置有所振荡, 暴雨空间自相关正极大值区域包括了里海西侧和西北侧海岸, 而负极大值区域位于伊朗中部和东部部分地区, 特别是扎布尔省. 进一步研究发现, 特大暴雨空间自相关格局分析结果, 与暴雨结果类似.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Iran Meteorological Organization for providing the meteorological data for this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Yazd University, Yazd, 8915818411, Iran

    Iman Rousta & Hamid Reza Ghafarian Malamiri

  2. Department of Geography, Zanjan University, Zanjan, 3879145371, Iran

    Mehdi Doostkamian

  3. Department of Geography, Tabriz University, Tabriz, 5166616471, Iran

    Esmaeil Haghighi

  4. Department of Geography, Khwarizmi University, Tehran, 1491115719, Iran

    Parvane Yarahmadi

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  1. Iman Rousta
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  4. Hamid Reza Ghafarian Malamiri
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Correspondence to Mehdi Doostkamian.

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Rousta, I., Doostkamian, M., Haghighi, E. et al. Analysis of spatial autocorrelation patterns of heavy and super-heavy rainfall in Iran. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34, 1069–1081 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6227-y

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