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Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over the arid region of northwestern China: Observation and projection

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences volume 34, pages 289–305 (2017)Cite this article

Abstract

This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and extreme climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally, the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in winter and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related extremes are consistent with warming, with decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes. The warming of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and warm nights are more evident than for cold and warm days. Extreme precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21st century. Decreases in cold extremes, increases in warm extremes, intensification of extreme precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and thank climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. This research was jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955900), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600701), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41675069).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210046, China

    Yujie Wang

  2. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Botao Zhou, Dahe Qin, Jia Wu, Rong Gao & Lianchun Song

  3. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Botao Zhou

  4. Northwest Climate Center of Gansu Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou, 730020, China

    Yujie Wang

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  1. Yujie Wang
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  2. Botao Zhou
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  3. Dahe Qin
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  4. Jia Wu
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  5. Rong Gao
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  6. Lianchun Song
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Correspondence to Botao Zhou.

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Wang, Y., Zhou, B., Qin, D. et al. Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over the arid region of northwestern China: Observation and projection. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34, 289–305 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-6160-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-6160-5

Key words

  • climate change
  • arid region
  • observation
  • CMIP5 projection