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The Southwest Indian Ocean thermocline dome in CMIP5 models: Historical simulation and future projection

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Abstract

Using 20 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the simulation of the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) thermocline dome is evaluated and its role in shaping the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode following El Ni˜no investigated. In most of the CMIP5 models, due to an easterly wind bias along the equator, the simulated SWIO thermocline is too deep, which could further influence the amplitude of the interannual IOB mode. A model with a shallow (deep) thermocline dome tends to simulate a strong (weak) IOB mode, including key attributes such as the SWIO SST warming, antisymmetric pattern during boreal spring, and second North Indian Ocean warming during boreal summer. Under global warming, the thermocline dome deepens with the easterly wind trend along the equator in most of the models. However, the IOB amplitude does not follow such a change of the SWIO thermocline among the models; rather, it follows future changes in both ENSO forcing and local convection feedback, suggesting a decreasing effect of the deepening SWIO thermocline dome on the change in the IOB mode in the future.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education, and Key Laboratory of Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China

    Xiao-Tong Zheng & Lihui Gao

  2. Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003, China

    Xiao-Tong Zheng

  3. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301, China

    Gen Li & Yan Du

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  1. Xiao-Tong Zheng
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  2. Lihui Gao
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  4. Yan Du
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Correspondence to Xiao-Tong Zheng.

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Zheng, XT., Gao, L., Li, G. et al. The Southwest Indian Ocean thermocline dome in CMIP5 models: Historical simulation and future projection. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 33, 489–503 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5076-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5076-9

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