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Trends of extreme precipitation in eastern China and their possible causes

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Abstract

Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed as possible causes of these changes. We examine data from urban and rural meteorological stations in eastern China (1955–2011) and compare them with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data (1979–2007) and reanalysis data in various latitude zones to study changes in precipitation extremes. Significant decreases in light precipitation and increases in heavy precipitation are found at both rural and urban stations, as well as low latitudes over the ocean, while total precipitation shows little change. Characteristics of these changes and changes in the equatorial zone and other latitudes suggest that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes. In eastern China, increases of annual total dry days (28 days) and ≥10 consecutive dry days (36%) are due to the decrease in light precipitation days, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher meteorological risk of floods and droughts. Further, results derived from the GPCP data and reanalysis data suggest that the causal link exists over widespread regions of the globe.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

    Run Liu, Jun Li & Yuanhang Zhang

  2. Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, 11529, Taiwan

    Shaw Chen Liu & Chein-Jung Shiu

  3. Department of Atmospheric Science, NCU, Jhongli, 32001, Taiwan

    Shaw Chen Liu

  4. National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC, 20001, USA

    Ralph J. Cicerone

  5. Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, 92697-3100, USA

    Ralph J. Cicerone

  6. Institute of Urban Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China

    Jingli Wang

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  1. Run Liu
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  2. Shaw Chen Liu
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  3. Ralph J. Cicerone
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  4. Chein-Jung Shiu
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  5. Jun Li
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  6. Jingli Wang
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  7. Yuanhang Zhang
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Correspondence to Shaw Chen Liu or Yuanhang Zhang.

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Liu, R., Liu, S.C., Cicerone, R.J. et al. Trends of extreme precipitation in eastern China and their possible causes. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 32, 1027–1037 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5002-1

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