Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Assessment of future drought in Southwest China based on CMIP5 multimodel projections

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences volume 31, pages 1035–1050 (2014)Cite this article

Abstract

In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of assessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotranspiration (PET), due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale: the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

References

  • Allen, R. G., M. Smith, A. Pereira, and L. S. Perrier, 1994: An update for the calculation of reference evapotranspiration. ICID Bull., 43(2), 1–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barriopedro, D., C. M. Gouveia, R. M. Trigo, and L. Wang, 2012: The 2009/10 drought in China: Possible causes and impacts on vegetation. J. Hydrometeor., 13, 1251–1267.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burke, E. J., S. J. Brown, and N. Christidis, 2006: Modeling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the Hadley Centre climate model. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 1113–1125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Byun, H.-R., and D. A. Wilhite, 1999: Objective quantification of drought severity and duration. J. Climate, 12, 2747–2756.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, H. P., J. Q. Sun, and X. L. Chen, 2013: Future changes of drought and flood events in China under global warming scenario. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 6(1), 8–13.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, W., L. H. Kang, and D. Wang, 2006: The coupling relationship between summer rainfall in China and global sea surface temperature. Climatic and Environmental Research, 11(3), 259–269. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris, I., P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, and D. H. Lister, 2013: Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observationsthe CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int. J. Climatol., doi: 10.1002/joc. 3711.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hayes, M. J., M. D. Svoboda, D. A. Wilhite, and O. V. Vanyarkho, 1999: Monitoring the 1996 drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 429–438.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayhoe, K., and Coauthors, 2008: Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA. Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Glob. Change, 13, 425–436.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobbins, M. T., A. G. Dai, M. L. Roderick, and G. D. Farquhar, 2008: Revisiting the parameterization of potential evaporation as a driver of long-term water balance trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12403, doi: 10.1029/2008GL033840.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang, R. H., Y. Liu, L. Wang, and L. Wang, 2012: Analyses of the causes of severe drought occurring in Southwest China from the fall of 2009 to the spring of 2010. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 36(3), 443–457. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hutchinson, M. F., 1998a: Interpolation of rainfall data with thin plate smoothing splines, Part I: Two dimensional smoothing of data with short range correlation. Journal of Geographic Information and Decision Analysis, 2(2), 139–151.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hutchinson, M. F., 1998b: Interpolation of rainfall data with thin plate smoothing splines Part II: Analysis of topographic dependence. Journal of Geographic Information and Decision Analysis, 2(2), 152–167.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, Y. H., H. M. Xu, and D. Liu, 2009: Features of the extremely severe drought in the east of Southwest China and anomalies of atmospheric circulation in summer 2006. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 25(2), 122–132.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maurer, E. P., and H. G. Hidalgo, 2008: Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: An intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 12, 551–563.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McEvoy, D. J., J. L. Huntington, J. T. Abatzoglou, and L. M. Edwards, 2012: An evaluation of multi-scalar drought indices in Nevada and eastern California. Earth Interaction, 16, 1–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, 1993: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints, 8th Conf. on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 179–184.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, 1995: Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. Preprints, 9th Conf. on Applied Climatology, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 233–236.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moss, R. H., and Coauthors, 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747–756.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nath, D., W. Chen, L. Wang, and Y. Ma, 2014: Planetary wave reflection and its impact on tropospheric cold weather over Asia during January 2008. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 31(4) doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3195-8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palmer, W. C., 1965: Meteorological drought. U.S. Department of Commerce Research Paper 45, 58 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peng, J. B., Q. Y. Zhang, and C. Bueh, 2007: On the characteristics and possible causes of a severe drought and heat wave in the Sichuan-Chongqing region in 2006. Climatic and Environmental Research, 12(3), 464–474. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Qiu, J., 2010: China drought highlights future climate threats. Nature, 465, 142–143.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren, G. Y., J. Guo, M. Z. Xu, Z. Y. Chu, L. Zhang, X. K. Zou, Q. X. Li, and X. N. Liu, 2005: Climate changes of China’s mainland over the past half century. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 63(6), 942–956. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sun, L., F. M. Ren, Z. Y. Wang, Y. Y. Liu, Y. J. Liu, P. L. Wang, and D. Q. Wang, 2012: Analysis of climate anomaly and causation in August 2011. Meteorological Monthly, 38(5), 615–622. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thornthwaite, C. W., 1948: An approach toward a rational classification of climate, Geogr. Rev., 38, 55–94.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trewin, B. C., 2007: The role of climatological normals in a changing climate.World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme, WCDMP-No.61, WMO/TD No. 1377, 34 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • van der Schrier, G., P. D. Jones, and K. R. Briffa, 2011: The sensitivity of the PDSI to the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith parameterizations for potential evapotranspiration. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D03106, doi: 10.1029/2010JD015001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Beguería, and J. I. López-Moreno, 2009: A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J. Climate, 23, 1696–1718, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI 2909.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Beguería, J. I. López-Moreno, M. Angulo, and A. El Kenawy, 2010: A new global 0.5° gridded dataset (1901–2006) of a multiscalar drought index: Comparison with current drought index datasets based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 1033–1043, doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1224.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Beguería, and J. I. López-Moreno, 2011: Comment on “Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1900–2008” by Aiguo Dai. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D19112, doi: 10.1029/2011JD016410.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano, S. M., and Coauthors, 2012: Performance of drought indices for ecological, agricultural and hydrological applications. Earth Interaction, 16, 1–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, L., and W. Chen, 2012: Characteristics of multi-timescale variabilities of the drought over last 100 years in Southwest China. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2(4), 21–26. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, L., and W. Chen, 2013: Application of bias correction and spatial disaggregation in removing model biases and downscaling over China. Advances in Earth Science, 28(10), 1144–1153. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, L., and W. Chen, 2014: Applicability analysis of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in drought monitoring in China. Plateau Meteorology, 33(2), 423–431. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, Z., F. Ren, L. Sun, Y. Liu, P. Wang, J. Tang, D. Wang, and D. Li, 2012: Analysis of climate anomaly and causation in summer 2011. Meteorological Monthly, 38(4), 448–455. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wei, K., W. Chen, and W. Zhou, 2011: Changes in the East Asian cold season since 2000. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28(1), 69–79, doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9232-y.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wells, N., S. Goddard, and M. J. Hayes, 2004: A self-calibrating palmer drought severity index. J. Climate, 17, 2335–2351.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Widmann, M., C. S. Bretherton, and E. P. Salathé, 2003: Statistical precipitation downscaling over the northwestern United States using numerically simulated precipitation as a predictor. J. Climate, 16, 799–816.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite, D., 2006: Drought monitoring and early warning: Concepts, progress and future challenges. WMO-No. 1006, 24 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wood, A. W., E. P. Maurer, A. Kumar, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2002: Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States. J. Geophys. Res., 107, doi: 10.1029/2001JD000659.

  • Wood, A. W., L. R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2004: Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Climate Change, 62, 189–216, doi: 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu, C. H., and Y. Xu, 2012: The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5(6), 527–533.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang, J., D. Gong, W. Wang, M. Hu, and R. Mao, 2012: Extreme drought event of 2009/2010 over southwestern China. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 115, 173–184, doi: 10.1007/s00703-011-0172-6a.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ye, T., P. Shi, J. Wang, L. Liu, Y. Fan, and J. Hu, 2012: China’s drought disaster risk management: Perspective of severe droughts in 2009–2010. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 3, 84–97, doi: 10.1007/s13753-012-0009-z.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yuan, F., W. Chen, and W. Zhou, 2012: Analysis of the role played by circulation in the persistent precipitation over South China in June 2010. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 29(4), 769–781, doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2018-7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, J., L. Jiang, Z. Feng, and P. Li, 2012a: Detecting effects of the recent drought on vegetation in southwestern China. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 3, 43–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, L., J. F. Xiao, J. Li, K. Wang, L. P. Lei and H. D. Guo, 2012b: The 2010 spring drought reduced primary productivity in southwestern China. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 045706, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045706.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, M., J. He, B. Wang, S. Wang, S. Li, W. Liu, and X. Ma, 2013a: Extreme drought changes in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 23(1), 3–16, doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-0989-7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, W. J., F. F. Jin, J. X. Zhao, L. Qi, and H. L. Ren, 2013b: The possible influence of a non-conventional El Niño on the severe autumn drought of 2009 in Southwest China. J. Climate, 26, 8392–8405. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00851.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou, W., C. Li, and J. C. L. Chan, 2006: The interdecadal variations of the summer monsoon rainfall over South China. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 93, 165–175, doi: 10.1007/s00703-006-0184-9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou, W., J. C. L. Chan, W. Chen, J. Ling, J. G. Pinto, and Y. Shao, 2009: Synoptic-scale controls of persistent low temperature and icy weather over southern China in January 2008. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3978–3991, doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2952.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China

    Lin Wang & Wen Chen

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Lin Wang

  3. Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Wen Zhou

Authors
  1. Lin Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wen Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wen Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wen Chen.

Electronic supplementary material

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wang, L., Chen, W. & Zhou, W. Assessment of future drought in Southwest China based on CMIP5 multimodel projections. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 31, 1035–1050 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-3223-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-3223-3

Key words

search

Navigation