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The impact of AIRS atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles on hurricane forecasts: Ike (2008) and Irene (2011)

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Abstract

Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) measurements are a valuable supplement to current observational data, especially over the oceans where conventional data are sparse. In this study, two types of AIRS-retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, the AIRS Science Team product (SciSup) and the single field-of-view (SFOV) research product, were evaluated with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis data over the Atlantic Ocean during Hurricane Ike (2008) and Hurricane Irene (2011). The evaluation results showed that both types of AIRS profiles agreed well with the ECMWF analysis, especially between 200 hPa and 700 hPa. The average standard deviation of both temperature profiles was approximately 1 K under 200 hPa, where the mean AIRS temperature profile from the AIRS SciSup retrievals was slightly colder than that from the AIRS SFOV retrievals. The mean SciSup moisture profile was slightly drier than that from the SFOV in the mid troposphere. A series of data assimilation and forecast experiments was then conducted with the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system for hurricanes Ike and Irene. The results showed an improvement in the hurricane track due to the assimilation of AIRS clear-sky temperature profiles in the hurricane environment. In terms of total precipitable water and rainfall forecasts, the hurricane moisture environment was found to be affected by the AIRS sounding assimilation. Meanwhile, improving hurricane intensity forecasts through assimilating AIRS profiles remains a challenge for further study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA

    Jing Zheng, Jun Li & Jinlong Li

  2. National Satellite Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Jing Zheng

  3. Advanced Satellite Products Branch, Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NESDIS/NOAA, Madison, WI, 53706, USA

    Timothy J. Schmit

  4. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 80305, USA

    Zhiquan Liu

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  1. Jing Zheng
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  2. Jun Li
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  4. Jinlong Li
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Correspondence to Jing Zheng.

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Zheng, J., Li, J., Schmit, T.J. et al. The impact of AIRS atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles on hurricane forecasts: Ike (2008) and Irene (2011). Adv. Atmos. Sci. 32, 319–335 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-3162-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-3162-z

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