Abstract
Winter rainfall over South China shows strong interannual variability, which accounts for about half of the total winter rainfall over South China. This study investigated the predictability of winter (December-January-February; DJF) rainfall over South China using the retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models included in the ENSEMBLES project for the period 1961–2006. It was found that the ENSEMBLES models predicted the interannual variation of rainfall over South China well, with the correlation coefficient between the observed/station-averaged rainfall and predicted/areaaveraged rainfall being 0.46. In particular, above-normal South China rainfall was better predicted, and the correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed anomalies was 0.64 for these wetter winters. In addition, the models captured well the main features of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies related to South China rainfall variation in the observation. It was further found that South China rainfall, when predicted according to predicted DJF Niño3.4 index and the ENSO-South China rainfall relationship, shows a prediction skill almost as high as that directly predicted, indicating that ENSO is the source for the predictability of South China rainfall.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adler, R. F., and Coauthors, 2003: The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-Present). Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4, 1147–1167.
Chen, W., 2002: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the cycle of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 595–610. (in Chinese)
Chen, W., S. Yang, and R.-H. Huang, 2005: Relationship between stationary planetary wave activity and the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D14110, doi: 10.1029/2004JD005669.
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., and Coauthors, 2009: Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1538–1559.
Doblas-Reyes, F. J., A. Weisheimer, T. N. Palmer, J. M. Murphy, and D. Smith, 2010: Forecast quality assessment of the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts. ECMWF/TM-No. 621, 45 pp.
Feddersen, H., A. Navarra, and M. N. Ward, 1999: Reduction of model systematic error by statistical correction for dynamical seasonal prediction. J. Climate, 12, 1974–1989.
Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40 year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471.
Kang, I.-S., J.-Y. Lee, and C.-K. Park, 2004: Potential predictability of a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction. J. Climate, 17, 834–844.
Li, C., and H. Ma, 2012: Relationship between ENSO and winter rainfall over Southeast China and its decadal variability. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1129–1141, doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1248-z.
Tao, S. Y., and Q. Zhang, 1998: Response of the Asian winter and summer monsoon to ENSO events. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 22, 399–407. (in Chinese)
van der Linden, P., and F. J. B. Mitchell, Eds., 2009: ENSEMBLES: Climate change and its impact: Summary of research and results from ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK, 160 pp.
Wang, L., and J. Feng, 2011: Two major modes of the wintertime precipitation over China. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 1105–1116. (in Chinese)
Wu, R. G., Z. Z. Hu, and B. P. Kirtman, 2003: Evolution of ENSOrelated rainfall anomalies in East Asia. J. Climate, 16, 3742–3758.
Yun, W. T., L. Stefanova, A. K. Mitra, T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, W. Dewar, and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2005: A multi-model superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecast. Tellus, 57, 280–289.
Zhang, R. H., and A. Sumi, 2002: Moisture circulation over East Asia during El Niño episode in northern winter, spring and autumn. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, 213–227.
Zhang, R. H., A. Sumi, and M. Kimoto, 1996: Impact of El Niño on the East Asian monsoon: A diagnostic study of the’ 86/87 and’ 91/92 events. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 74, 49–62.
Zhang, R. H., A. Sumi, and M. Kimoto, 1999: A diagnostic study of the impact of El Niño on the precipitation in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 16, 229–241.
Zhou, L.-T., 2011: Impact of East Asian winter monsoon on rainfall over southeastern China and its dynamical process. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 677–686.
Zhou, L.-T., and R. G. Wu, 2010: Respective impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO on winter rainfall in China. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D02107, doi: 10.1029/2009JD012502.
Zhou, L.-T., C.-Y. Tam, W. Zhou, and J. C. L. Chan, 2010: Influence of South China Sea SST and the ENSO on winter rainfall over South China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27, 832–844, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9102-7.
Zhu, C. W., C.-K. Park, W.-S. Lee, and W.-T. Yun, 2008: Statistical downscaling for multi-model ensemble prediction of summer monsoon rainfall in the Asia-Pacific region using geopotential height field. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 25, 867–884, doi: 10.1007/s00376-008-0867-x.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yang, SH., Li, C. & Lu, R. Predictability of winter rainfall in South China as demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 31, 779–786 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-013-3172-2
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-013-3172-2