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Effect of stochastic MJO forcing on ENSO predictability

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Abstract

Within the frame of the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of the uncertainties of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on ENSO predictability was studied using a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing. The results show that the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on the maximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP); compared to CNOP-type initial error, the model error caused by the uncertainties of MJO led to a smaller prediction uncertainty of ENSO, and its influence over the ENSO predictability was not significant. This result suggests that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which could provide a theoretical foundation for the data assimilation of the ENSO forecast.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Yuehua Peng  (彭跃华) & Wansuo Duan  (段晚锁)

  2. Department of Military Oceanography, Dalian Naval Academy, Dalian, 116018, China

    Yuehua Peng  (彭跃华)

  3. Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 211101, China

    Yuehua Peng  (彭跃华) & Jie Xiang  (项杰)

Authors
  1. Yuehua Peng  (彭跃华)
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  2. Wansuo Duan  (段晚锁)
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  3. Jie Xiang  (项杰)
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Correspondence to Wansuo Duan  (段晚锁).

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Peng, Y., Duan, W. & Xiang, J. Effect of stochastic MJO forcing on ENSO predictability. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28, 1279–1290 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-011-0126-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-011-0126-4

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