Abstract
In this study, the accuracy of a Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (PSU/NCAR MM5) for predicting heavy summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula was investigated. A total of 1800 simulations were performed using this model for 30 heavy rainfall events employing four cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS), two grid-scale resolvable precipitation schemes (GRS), and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in three model resolutions (90 km, 30 km, and 10 km). The heavy rainfall events were mesoscale convective systems developed under the influence of mid-latitude baroclinic systems with low-level moisture transport from the ocean.
The predictive accuracy for maximum rainfall was approximately 80% for 10-km resolution and was 60% for 30-km resolution. The predictive accuracy for rainfall position extended to ∼150 km from the observed position for both resolutions. Simulated rainfall was most sensitive to CPS, then to PBL schemes, and then to GRS. In general, the Grell (GR) scheme and the Anthes and Kuo (AK) scheme showed a better prediction capability for heavy rainfall than did the Betts-Miller (BM) scheme and the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme. The GR scheme also performed well in the 24-h and 12-h precipitation predictions: the parameterized convective rainfall in GR is directly related to synoptic-scale forcing. The models without CPS performed better for rainfall amounts but worse for rainfall position than those with CPS. The MM5 model demonstrated substantial predictive capacity using synoptic-scale initial conditions and lateral boundary data because heavy summer rainfall in Korea occurs in a strong synoptic-scale environment.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anthes, R. A., 1977: A cumulus parameterization scheme utilizing a one-dimensional cloud model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 270–286.
Betts, A. K., and M. J. Miller, 1986: A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: Single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, ATEX, and Arctic air-mass data sets. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 112, 693–709.
Bright, D. R., and S. L. Mullen, 2002: The sensitivity of the numerical simulation of the southwest monsoon boundary layer to the choice of PBL turbulence scheme in MM5. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 99–114.
Ebert, E., 2009: Neighborfood verification: A strategy for rewarding close forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1498–1510.
Ferrier, B. S., W.-K. Tao, and J. Simpson, 1995: A double-moment multiple-phase four-class bulk ice scheme. Part II: Simulations of convective storms in different large-scale environments and comparisons with other bulk parameterizations. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1001–1033.
Fowle, M. A., and P. J. Roebber, 2003: Short-range (0–48 h) numerical prediction of convective occurrence, mode, and location. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 782–794.
Gilleland, E., D. Ahijevych, and B. G. Brown, 2009: Intercomparison of spatial forecast verification methods. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1416–1430.
Gilmore, M. S., J. M. Straka, and E. N. Rasmussen, 2004: Precipitation and evolution sensitivity in simulated deep convective storms: Comparisons between liquid-only and simple ice and liquid phase microphysics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1897–1916.
Grell, G. A., 1993: Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 764–787.
Grell, G. A., J. Dudhia, and D. R. Stauffer, 1994: A description of the fifth generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-398+STR, 138pp.
Hong, S.-Y., 2004: Comparison of heavy rainfall mechanisms in Korea and the central US. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 1469–1479.
Kain, J. S., and J. M. Frisch, 1993: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain-Fritsch scheme. The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models, Meteor. Monogr., No. 46, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 165–170.
Kuo, Y.-H., R. J. Reed, and Y. Liu, 1996: The ERICA IOP 5 Storm. Part III: Mesoscale cyclogenesis and precipitation parameterization. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1409–1434.
Lee, D.-K., and S.-Y. Hong, 1989: Numerical experiments of the heavy rainfall event occurred over Korea during 1–3 September 1984. J. Korean Meteor. Soc., 25, 233–260.
Lee, D.-K., and S.-J. Choi, 2010: Observation and numerical prediction of torrential rainfall over Korea caused by typhoon Rusa (2002). J. Geophys. Res., 115, D12105.
Lee, D.-K., J.-G. Jhun, S.-Y. Hong, and H.-R. Kim, 1993: Numerical simulations of a heavy rainfall case occurred over central Korea during 10–12 September 1990. J. Korean Meteor. Soc., 29, 147–169.
Lee, D.-K., H. -R. Kim, and S. -Y. Hong, 1998: Heavy rainfall over Korea during 1980–1990. Korean J. Atmos. Sci., 1(1), 32–50.
Lee, D.-K., J.-G. Park, and J.-W. Kim, 2008: Heavy rainfall events lasting 18 days from July 31 to August 17, 1998, over Korea. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86, 313–333.
Lee, S.-W., D.-K. Lee, and D.-E. Chang, 2010: Impact of horizontal resolution and cumulus parameterization scheme on the simulation of heavy rainfall events over the Korean Peninsula. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28(1), 1–15, doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9217-x.
Liu, C., and M. W. Moncrieff, 2007: Sensitivity of cloudresolving simulations of warm-season convection to cloud microphysics parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2854–2868.
McCumber, M., W.-K. Tao, J. Simpson, R. Penc, and S.-T. Soong, 1991: Comparison of ice-phase microphysical parameterization schemes using numerical simulations of tropical convection. J. Appl. Meteor., 30, 985–1004.
Mlawer, E. J., S. J. Taubman, P. D. Brown, M. J. Iacono, and S. A. Clough, 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 16663–16682.
National Emergency Management Agency, 2009: Disaster yearbook. National Emergency Management Agency, Korea, 755pp.
Park, S.-U., C.-H. Joung, S.-S. Kim, D.-K. Lee, S.-C. Yoon, Y.-K. Joung, and S.-G. Hong, 1986: Synoptic scale features of the heavy rainfall occurred over Korea. J. Korean Meteor. Soc., 22(1), 42–81.
Sato, T., T. Yoshikane, M. Satoh, H. Miura, and H. Fujinami, 2008: Resolution dependency of the diurnal cycle of convective clouds over the Tibetan Plateau in a mesoscale model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86A, 17–31.
Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, 2005: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 2. NCAR Tech. Note TN-468+STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo.
Stephens, G. L., 1984: The parameterization of radiation for numerical weather prediction and climate models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 826–867.
Sun, J., and T.-Y. Lee, 2002: A numerical study of an intense quasi-stationary convection band over the Korean peninsula. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, 1221–1245.
Yang, M.-J., and Q.-C. Tung, 2003: Evaluation of rainfall forecasts over Taiwan by four cumulus parameterization schemes. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 81, 1163–1183.
Wang, W., and N. L. Seaman., 1997: A comparison study of convective parameterization schemes in a mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 252–278.
Wisse, J. S. P., and J. Vila-Guerau de Arellano, 2004: Analysis of the role of the planetary boundary layer schemes during a severe convective storm. Ann. Geophys., 22, 1861–1874.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Park, JG., Lee, DK. Evaluation of heavy rainfall model forecasts over the Korean Peninsula using different physical parameterization schemes and horizontal resolution. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28, 1233–1245 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-011-0058-z
Received:
Revised:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-011-0058-z