Skip to main content
Log in

A correction method suitable for Dynamical Seasonal Prediction

  • Published:
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Based on the hindcast results of summer rainfall anomalies over China for the period 1981–2000 by the Dynamical Climate Prediction System (TAP-DCP) developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a correction method that can account for the dependence of model’s systematic biases on SST anomalies is proposed. It is shown that this correction method can improve the hindcast skill of the IAP-DCP for summer rainfall anomalies over China, especially in western China and southeast China, which may imply its potential application to real-time seasonal prediction.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bengtsson, L., U. Schlese, E. Roeckner, M. Latif, T. P. Barnett, and N. Graham, 1993: A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting. Science, 261, 1026–1029.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feddersen H., A. Navarra, and M. Neil Ward, 1999: Reduction of model systematic error by statistical correction for dynamical seasonal predictions. J. Climate, 12(7), 1971–1980.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fennessy, M. J., and J. Shukla, 1991: Comparison of the impact of the 1982/83 and 1986/87 Pacific anomalies on time-mean predictions of atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 4, 407–423.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang, R., and F. Sun, 1992: Impacts of the tropical western Pacific on the Eastern Asian summer monsoons. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70(1), 113–136.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang Ronghui, and Wu Yifang, 1989: The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 6, 21–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lau, N. C., and M. J. Nath, 1990: A general circulation model study of the atmospheric response to extratropical SST anomalies observed in 1950–79. J. Climate, 3, 965–989.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Xu, 1992: Studies on numerical simulation and prediction of short-term climate anomalies. Ph. D. dissertation, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 136pp. (in Chinese)

  • Lin Zhaohui, and Zeng Qingcun, 1997: Simulation of East Asian summer monsoon by using an Improved AGCM. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 14(4), 513–526.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin Zhaohui, Li Xu, Zhao Yan, Zhou Guangqing, Wang Huijun, Yuan Chongguang, Kuo Yufu, and Zeng Qingcun, 1998: An improved short-term climate prediction system and its application to the extra-seasonal prediction of rainfall anomaly in China for 1998. Climatic and Environmental Research, 3(4), 339–348. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin Zhaohui, Zhao Yan, Zhou Guangqing, and Zeng Qingcun, 2000: Prediction of summer climate anomaly over China for 1999 and its verification. Climatic and Environmental Research, 5(2), 97–108. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin Zhaohui, Zhao Yan, Zhou Guangqing, and Zeng Qingcun, 2002: Dynamical prediction of summer monsoon precipitation anomalies over China for 2000. Progress in Natural Science, 12(7), 771–774. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Montroy, D. L., M. B. Richma, and P. L. Lamb, 1998: Observed nonlinearities of monthly teleconnections between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and central and eastern North American precipitation. J. Climate, 11(7), 1812–1835.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer, T. N., and D. L. T. Anderson, 1994: The prospects for seasonal forecasting. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 20, 755–793.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tennant, W., 1999: Numerical forecasting of monthly climate in southern Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 19(12), 1316–1336.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth, K. E., 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771–2777.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Huijun, Zhou Guangqing, and Zhao Yan, 2000: An effective method for correcting the seasonal-interannual prediction of summer climate anomaly. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 17(2), 234–240.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeng Qingcun, Zhang Banglin, Yuan Chongguang, Lu Peisheng, Yang Fanglin, Li Xu, and Wang Huijun, 1994: A note on some methods suitable for verifying and correcting the prediction of climate anomaly. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 11(2), 121–127.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeng Qingcun, Yuan Chongguang, Wang Wanqiu, and Zhang Ronghua, 1990: Experiments in numerical extra-seasonal prediction of climate anomalies. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 14(1), 10–25. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeng Qingcun, and Coauthors, 1997: Seasonal and extraseasonal prediction of summer monsoon precipitation by GCMs. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 14, 163–176.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeng Qingcun, Lin Zhaohui, and Zhou Guangqing, 2003: Dynamical extra-seasonal climate prediction system IAP DCP-II. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 27(2), 101–117.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao Yan, Li Xu, Yuan Chongguang, and Guo Yufu, 1999: Quantitative assessment and improvement to correction technology on prediction system of short-term climate anomaly. Climatic and Environmental Research, 4(4), 353–364. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Feng, Chen Hong, Lin Zhaohui, and Zeng Qingcun, 2004: Improvement of horizontal resolutions of IAP AGCM-I and its influence on the simulations of global and East Asian climate. Climatic and Environmental Research, 9(2), 396–408. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Chen, H., Lin, Z. A correction method suitable for Dynamical Seasonal Prediction. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 23, 425–430 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-006-0425-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-006-0425-3

Key words

Navigation