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Effects of climate change on the potential habitat distribution of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus under the species distribution model

  • Ecology
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Abstract

Over the last decades, the species distribution model (SDM) has become an essential tool for studying the potential effects of climate change on species distribution. In this study, an ensemble SDM was developed to predict the changes in species distribution of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus across different seasons in the future (2050s and 2100s) under the climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5. Results of the ensemble SDM indicate that the distribution of this species will move northward and exhibit evident seasonal variations. Among the four seasons, the suitable habitat for this species will be significantly reduced in summer, with loss rates ranging from 45.23% (RCP4.5) to 88.26% (RCP.8.5) by the 2100s. The loss of habitat will mostly occur in the East China Sea and the southern part of the Yellow Sea, while a slight increase in habitat will occur in the northern part of the Bohai Sea. These findings provide an information forecast for this species in the future. Such forecast will be helpful in improving fishery management under climate change.

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Data Availability Statement

The datasets generated and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Author notes

  1. Xingyu LIU and Xiaolu HAN contributed equally to this work and should be regarded as co-first authors.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fishery College, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan, 316002, China

    Xingyu Liu, Xiaolu Han & Zhiqiang Han

Authors
  1. Xingyu Liu
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  2. Xiaolu Han
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zhiqiang Han.

Additional information

Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Nos. 2017YFA0604902, 2017YFA0604904), the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No. LR21D060003), the New Talent Program for College Students in Zhejiang Province (No. 2016R411011), and the Innovation Training Program for University students of Zhejiang Ocean University (No. 2020-03)

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Liu, X., Han, X. & Han, Z. Effects of climate change on the potential habitat distribution of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus under the species distribution model. J. Ocean. Limnol. 40, 1556–1565 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-021-1082-1

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