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Modeling the potential spread of the non-native regal demoiselle, Neopomacentrus cyanomos, in the western Atlantic

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Abstract

Predicting the potential distribution of a non-native species can assist management efforts to mitigate impacts on recipient ecosystems. However, such predictions are lacking for marine species, such as the non-native regal demoiselle, Neopomacentrus cyanomos, that is currently expanding its distribution in the western Atlantic. We used correlative species distribution models with three common algorithms to predict suitable habitat for N. cyanomos in the region. We compared models developed using native, non-native, and global occurrences to differentiate drivers across separate ranges using a suite of 12 environmental characteristics. While final models included an ensemble of variables, the majority ranked the combined effect of temperature variables as a key predictor correlated with the distribution of N. cyanomos. Habitat suitability increased as water temperatures increased beyond 16 °C and where annual thermal ranges were greater than 10 °C at the shallowest depth with substrate within a study cell (~ 9.2 km2 resolution). Habitat suitability also increased where maximum surface temperatures were greater than 27 °C. In the non-native range, the proportion of reef available in each cell was another important variable increasing the suitable habitat for N. cyanomos. Our models predicted high habitat suitability for N. cyanomos throughout the Greater Caribbean, in higher latitudes along North and South American Atlantic coasts, in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and highlights key areas where managers can monitor and target potential removal efforts. The distribution of this non-native species is likely to continue expanding throughout the region with little known about potential implications on native communities.

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Data availability

Data supporting the findings of this study come from publicly available datasets or are provided in the supplementary materials. Ensemble map results are provided in the supplementary materials and those hoping to use these results for research should contact the corresponding author to discuss collaboration.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Ross Robertson at the Smithsonian for his advisement in organizing fieldwork for this project and supporting the financial application. We also thank the Australian Institute of Marine Science and their Long-Term Monitoring Program for contributing data for the creation of this work. This is contribution #1693 from the Institute of Environment at Florida International University. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Funding

This work was supported by the Smithsonian, startup funds from Florida International University to Alastair R. Harborne, and the Tinker Foundation with the Kimberly Green Latin American Caribbean Center at Florida International University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Environment and Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, North Miami, FL, 33181, USA

    Melanie M. Esch & Alastair R. Harborne

  2. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Melanie M. Esch

  3. U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    Catherine S. Jarnevich

  4. Facultad de Ciencias, Unidad Multidisciplinaria de Docencia e Investigación Sisal, UNAM, Sisal, Mexico

    Nuno Simões

  5. Laboratorio Nacional de Resiliencia Costera (LANRESC), Sisal, México

    Nuno Simões

  6. International Chair for Coastal and Marine Studies, Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX, USA

    Nuno Simões

  7. Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Marine Programs, Bronx, NY, 10460, USA

    Timothy R. McClanahan

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  1. Melanie M. Esch
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  2. Catherine S. Jarnevich
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  4. Timothy R. McClanahan
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Contributions

Melanie M. Esch conceived the study with Alastair R. Harborne, received funding, and conducted the fieldwork. Nuno Simões assisted with fieldwork. Timothy R. McClanahan contributed data to the study. Melanie M. Esch and Catherine S. Jarnevich developed models and figures. Melanie M. Esch wrote the manuscript and all authors provided edits.

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Correspondence to Melanie M. Esch.

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Visual surveys using SCUBA were approved by the FIU IACUC ethics committee under protocol number IACUC-19-041.

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Esch, M.M., Jarnevich, C.S., Simões, N. et al. Modeling the potential spread of the non-native regal demoiselle, Neopomacentrus cyanomos, in the western Atlantic. Coral Reefs (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-024-02490-z

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