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Pre-operative radiomics model for prognostication in resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma with external validation

  • Hepatobiliary-Pancreas
  • Published:
European Radiology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Objectives

In resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), few pre-operative prognostic biomarkers are available. Radiomics has demonstrated potential but lacks external validation. We aimed to develop and externally validate a pre-operative clinical-radiomic prognostic model.

Methods

Retrospective international, multi-center study in resectable PDAC. The training cohort included 352 patients (pre-operative CTs from five Canadian hospitals). Cox models incorporated (a) pre-operative clinical variables (clinical), (b) clinical plus CT-radiomics, and (c) post-operative TNM model, which served as the reference. Outcomes were overall (OS)/disease-free survival (DFS). Models were assessed in the validation cohort from Ireland (n = 215, CTs from 34 hospitals), using C-statistic, calibration, and decision curve analyses.

Results

The radiomic signature was predictive of OS/DFS in the validation cohort, with adjusted hazard ratios (HR) 2.87 (95% CI: 1.40–5.87, p < 0.001)/5.28 (95% CI 2.35–11.86, p < 0.001), respectively, along with age 1.02 (1.01–1.04, p = 0.01)/1.02 (1.00–1.04, p = 0.03). In the validation cohort, median OS was 22.9/37 months (p = 0.0092) and DFS 14.2/29.8 (p = 0.0023) for high-/low-risk groups and calibration was moderate (mean absolute errors 7%/13% for OS at 3/5 years). The clinical-radiomic model discrimination (C = 0.545, 95%: 0.543–0.546) was higher than the clinical model alone (C = 0.497, 95% CI 0.496–0.499, p < 0.001) or TNM (C = 0.525, 95% CI: 0.524–0.526, p < 0.001). Despite superior net benefit compared to the clinical model, the clinical-radiomic model was not clinically useful for most threshold probabilities.

Conclusion

A multi-institutional pre-operative clinical-radiomic model for resectable PDAC prognostication demonstrated superior net benefit compared to a clinical model but limited clinical utility at external validation. This reflects inherent limitations of radiomics for PDAC prognostication, when deployed in real-world settings.

Key Points

At external validation, a pre-operative clinical-radiomics prognostic model for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) outperformed pre-operative clinical variables alone or pathological TNM staging.

Discrimination and clinical utility of the clinical-radiomic model for treatment decisions remained low, likely due to heterogeneity of CT acquisition parameters.

Despite small improvements, prognosis in PDAC using state-of-the-art radiomics methodology remains challenging, mostly owing to its low discriminative ability. Future research should focus on standardization of CT protocols and acquisition parameters.

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Abbreviations

AI:

Artificial intelligence

AJCC:

American Joint Committee on Cancer

CI:

Confidence intervals

CPH:

Cox proportional hazard

CT:

Computed tomography

DCA:

Decision curve analysis

DICOM:

Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine

GLCM:

Gray-level co-occurrence matrix

HR:

Hazard ratio

IBSI:

Image Biomarker Standardization Initiative

ISI:

Image-to-surgery time interval in days

LASSO:

Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator

MVA:

Multivariate analysis

OS:

Overall survival

PACS:

Picture archiving and communication system

PDAC:

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

PV:

Portal venous

QIBA:

Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance

RIS:

Radiology information system

TNM:

Tumor Node Metastasis staging system

TRIPOD:

Transparent Reporting of multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis statement

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Funding

M.A.H receives funding from the Ontario Institute for Cancer Research (OICR) Translational Research Initiative in Pancreatic Cancer and the Clinical Investigator Program. GMH is a Clinical Research Fellow who is funded by a research grant from the Faculty of Radiologists, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. DD is a research fellow who is funded by a DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) Fellowship DE 3207/1–1 (DD).

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Correspondence to Masoom A. Haider.

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Guarantor

The scientific guarantor of this publication is Dr Masoom Haider

Conflict of interest

The authors of this manuscript declare no relationships with any companies whose products or services may be related to the subject matter of the article.

Statistics and biometry

Xin Dong and Rahi Jain (both co-authors) kindly provided statistical advice for this manuscript.

Informed consent

The need for informed consent was waived by research ethics boards.

Ethical approval

Institutional Review Board approval was obtained.

Study subjects or cohorts overlap

Fifty-five patients within the North-American cohort have been previously used in a PDAC Radiomics prognostication study which generated three publications.

Methodology

• Retrospective

• Diagnostic or prognostic study

• Performed at multiple institutions

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Healy, G.M., Salinas-Miranda, E., Jain, R. et al. Pre-operative radiomics model for prognostication in resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma with external validation. Eur Radiol 32, 2492–2505 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00330-021-08314-w

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