Abstract
Objectives
In resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), few pre-operative prognostic biomarkers are available. Radiomics has demonstrated potential but lacks external validation. We aimed to develop and externally validate a pre-operative clinical-radiomic prognostic model.
Methods
Retrospective international, multi-center study in resectable PDAC. The training cohort included 352 patients (pre-operative CTs from five Canadian hospitals). Cox models incorporated (a) pre-operative clinical variables (clinical), (b) clinical plus CT-radiomics, and (c) post-operative TNM model, which served as the reference. Outcomes were overall (OS)/disease-free survival (DFS). Models were assessed in the validation cohort from Ireland (n = 215, CTs from 34 hospitals), using C-statistic, calibration, and decision curve analyses.
Results
The radiomic signature was predictive of OS/DFS in the validation cohort, with adjusted hazard ratios (HR) 2.87 (95% CI: 1.40–5.87, p < 0.001)/5.28 (95% CI 2.35–11.86, p < 0.001), respectively, along with age 1.02 (1.01–1.04, p = 0.01)/1.02 (1.00–1.04, p = 0.03). In the validation cohort, median OS was 22.9/37 months (p = 0.0092) and DFS 14.2/29.8 (p = 0.0023) for high-/low-risk groups and calibration was moderate (mean absolute errors 7%/13% for OS at 3/5 years). The clinical-radiomic model discrimination (C = 0.545, 95%: 0.543–0.546) was higher than the clinical model alone (C = 0.497, 95% CI 0.496–0.499, p < 0.001) or TNM (C = 0.525, 95% CI: 0.524–0.526, p < 0.001). Despite superior net benefit compared to the clinical model, the clinical-radiomic model was not clinically useful for most threshold probabilities.
Conclusion
A multi-institutional pre-operative clinical-radiomic model for resectable PDAC prognostication demonstrated superior net benefit compared to a clinical model but limited clinical utility at external validation. This reflects inherent limitations of radiomics for PDAC prognostication, when deployed in real-world settings.
Key Points
• At external validation, a pre-operative clinical-radiomics prognostic model for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) outperformed pre-operative clinical variables alone or pathological TNM staging.
• Discrimination and clinical utility of the clinical-radiomic model for treatment decisions remained low, likely due to heterogeneity of CT acquisition parameters.
• Despite small improvements, prognosis in PDAC using state-of-the-art radiomics methodology remains challenging, mostly owing to its low discriminative ability. Future research should focus on standardization of CT protocols and acquisition parameters.
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Abbreviations
- AI:
-
Artificial intelligence
- AJCC:
-
American Joint Committee on Cancer
- CI:
-
Confidence intervals
- CPH:
-
Cox proportional hazard
- CT:
-
Computed tomography
- DCA:
-
Decision curve analysis
- DICOM:
-
Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine
- GLCM:
-
Gray-level co-occurrence matrix
- HR:
-
Hazard ratio
- IBSI:
-
Image Biomarker Standardization Initiative
- ISI:
-
Image-to-surgery time interval in days
- LASSO:
-
Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator
- MVA:
-
Multivariate analysis
- OS:
-
Overall survival
- PACS:
-
Picture archiving and communication system
- PDAC:
-
Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma
- PV:
-
Portal venous
- QIBA:
-
Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance
- RIS:
-
Radiology information system
- TNM:
-
Tumor Node Metastasis staging system
- TRIPOD:
-
Transparent Reporting of multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis statement
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Funding
M.A.H receives funding from the Ontario Institute for Cancer Research (OICR) Translational Research Initiative in Pancreatic Cancer and the Clinical Investigator Program. GMH is a Clinical Research Fellow who is funded by a research grant from the Faculty of Radiologists, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. DD is a research fellow who is funded by a DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) Fellowship DE 3207/1–1 (DD).
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The scientific guarantor of this publication is Dr Masoom Haider
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The authors of this manuscript declare no relationships with any companies whose products or services may be related to the subject matter of the article.
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Xin Dong and Rahi Jain (both co-authors) kindly provided statistical advice for this manuscript.
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Study subjects or cohorts overlap
Fifty-five patients within the North-American cohort have been previously used in a PDAC Radiomics prognostication study which generated three publications.
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• Retrospective
• Diagnostic or prognostic study
• Performed at multiple institutions
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Healy, G.M., Salinas-Miranda, E., Jain, R. et al. Pre-operative radiomics model for prognostication in resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma with external validation. Eur Radiol 32, 2492–2505 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00330-021-08314-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00330-021-08314-w