Abstract
The Chukchi Sea pelagic ecosystem continues to undergo dramatic oceanographic changes associated with reductions in sea ice and increasing temperatures over the last decades. Impacts of these changes on polar cod (Boreogadus saida), an ice-associated pelagic fish that constitutes a key energetic link between lower and upper trophic levels, remain uncertain. Here, we use 4 years (2016–2019) of high-resolution acoustic and oceanographic data from the Chukchi Ecosystem Observatory to characterize temporal patterns in polar cod densities and identify its environmental drivers in years with contrasting sea ice and temperature conditions. Polar cod densities were 2–16 times greater with peaks occurring 14–60 days earlier in years with early sea ice retreat and higher water temperatures (2017 and 2019). The variance to mean relationship showed a decrease in variance for larger abundances in warmer years. Increased densities occurring earlier in the summer are attributed to a combination of earlier and increased transport of polar cod eggs and larvae from spawning areas, enhanced local primary and secondary production, and increased growth rates of fish due to higher temperatures. Earlier sea ice retreat and increases in temperature could temporarily benefit polar cod production in the NE Chukchi Sea but potential changes in prey quality, mismatch between polar cod and its prey, and increased competition with boreal fish species could have detrimental effects on polar cod populations with further warming. Such effects on polar cod populations could propagate through pelagic Arctic food webs impacting higher trophic levels and human communities.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the captains and crews of the M/V Norseman II, R/V Sikuliaq, R/V Ocean Starr, and USCGC Healy for CEO mooring turnarounds, along with chief scientists C. Ashjian, R. Hopcroft, K. Iken, R. McCabe, and P. Winsor. Timothy E. Essington is thanked for his valuable comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. We also thank Dr. George Divoky for constructive comments when reviewing the manuscript. SGG would like to acknowledge the support of a NPRB Graduate Student Research Award, an Oil Spill Research Institute Graduate Research Fellowship and a Fulbright-ANII Graduate Fellowship Program, and the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean Graduate Student Award for support during her PhD Research Program. SLD acknowledges CEO support from AOOS Grants G9046 and G11133 and NPRB Projects #1426 and L36-00A (NPRB Publication # 1901). AMS acknowledges support from ANII Project FCE_3_2020_1_162710. This is the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies Contribution Number 2022-118.
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SG received support from North Pacific Research Board Graduate Student Research Award, and Oil Spill Research Institute Graduate Research Fellowship. The Chukchi Ecosystem Observatory receives operations and equipment funding from the North Pacific Research Board via Project #1426 and #19 and the Alaska Ocean Observing System via Awards #NA11NOS0120020.
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SG and JKH conceived and designed this study, with input from SLD. SLD provided the Chukchi Ecosystem Observatory datasets. SG processed and analyzed the data, advised by JKH, AMS, and SLD. GL analyzed the chlorophyll a data. SG wrote the manuscript, JKH, AMS, SLD and GL revised the manuscript.
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Gonzalez, S., Horne, J.K., Danielson, S.L. et al. Temporal dynamics and environmental drivers of polar cod (Boreogadus saida) densities in the northeast Chukchi Sea. Polar Biol 46, 573–588 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-023-03150-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-023-03150-8