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Contrast of warm and cold phases in the Bering Sea to understand spatial distributions of Arctic and sub-Arctic gadids

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Abstract

The influence of climate on the dynamics of Arctic gadids is of increasing interest, particularly as research and survey effort expands in the Pacific Arctic. Understanding species-specific thermal tolerance may inform models of species distribution and projections of available habitat and also clarify implications of warming for ecological communities. Analyzing shifts in species distribution in warm and cold periods, this study considers the effects of a warming climate on the distribution of two keystone Arctic gadids (polar cod, saffron cod) and two commercially important sub-Arctic gadids (walleye pollock, Pacific cod). Shifts in distribution were used to derive temperature tolerance thresholds and to project how these species might react to a warming Arctic. Significant shifts were noted in comparisons of warm (2002–2005, 2014–2016, 2017–2018) and cold (2006–2013) periods. Sub-Arctic species expanded and contracted their range as environmental conditions shifted. In contrast, Arctic species appeared constrained, such that population densities increased or decreased within the same core geographic area. Additionally, species with a demersal life history were able to tolerate a wider range of thermal conditions. These results provide important insights on relative thermal tolerance of each species, differential influence of temperature on pelagic versus demersal life histories, and depth as thermal refuge. This study demonstrates both the need to understand the spatial response of fish to changing ocean conditions in polar regions and the utility of distributional analyses to inform that effort.

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adapted from RACE bottom trawl survey analyses (Conner et al. 2017; Conner and Lauth 2018)

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adapted from RACE bottom trawl survey analyses (Conner et al. 2017; Conner and Lauth 2018)

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Acknowledgements

This research would not be possible without the consistent and dedicated efforts of the scientists, technicians, and contractors of the Resource Assessment and Conservation Engineering (RACE) Division of the NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center, specifically the Groundfish Assessment Program (GAP) and the Bering Sea bottom trawl survey group. A great debt is owed to R. Lauth, particularly, for data collection, curation, query development, and consultation. A. Hollowed provided important guidance and review of preliminary analyses and G. Hunt and B. Norcross provided useful comments on the completed manuscript. This paper benefited from discussion at the Annual Science meetings of the Ecosystem Studies of the Sub-Arctic and Arctic Seas (ESSAS) in Tromso, Norway (2017) and Fairbanks, Alaska (2018). These meetings were coordinated by K. Drinkwater, N. Harada, G. Hunt, F. Mueter, B. Planque, and S.I. Saitoh. Useful advice and comments on presented research and/or the submitted manuscript were provided by L. Eisner, L. Logerwell, F. Mueter, and J. Marsh.

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    Matthew R. Baker

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Baker, M.R. Contrast of warm and cold phases in the Bering Sea to understand spatial distributions of Arctic and sub-Arctic gadids. Polar Biol 44, 1083–1105 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-021-02856-x

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