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Statistical power: an important consideration in designing community-based monitoring programs for Arctic and sub-Arctic subsistence fisheries

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Abstract

Polar communities and management agencies require well-designed monitoring systems to determine whether harvesting is biologically sustainable. While it is known that life history traits such as length-at-age and fecundity will vary with population density, cost-efficient monitoring requires that these metrics be incorporated into monitoring programs only if their statistical power is high to detect change due to fishing. We present a simple computer-simulated power analysis technique to compare the ability of monitoring designs to detect changes in fish length-at-age and fecundity, after adding effects of exploitation. We developed a methodology for estimating statistical power from first principles using computer simulation techniques which can be applied regardless of the statistical variance pattern in the data. Statistical power increased when more fish were sampled and when larger effects were added. Initially, power increased rapidly by increasing the sample size, regardless of the effect added. However, after 40–50 fish were included in the sample, smaller increments of increased power were obtained; highlighting that a cost-benefit analysis would be necessary. When compared to exploitation experiments in the literature, the stock-specific power analysis used here was able to correctly predict the outcome (significant change observed or not) of the literature studies in most cases. This technique advances the ability of designers of monitoring programs to assess the efficiency of any type of monitoring metric. Further, the simplicity of this power analysis technique allows it to be tailored to different species, life history traits, or potential disturbances to the population.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the staff of the Gwich’in Renewable Resource Board and the Fort McPherson Renewable Resource Council for helping to coordinate the field project. We would also like to thank the community fish monitors, whose work and expertise were invaluable to the field project; F. Koe, W. Teya, W. Alexie, L. Snowshoe, and R. Elias all freely shared their extensive knowledge about fish in the Peel River and often worked in challenging environmental conditions. Thanks also to A. Firth for helping with project logistics, T. Loewen for age determination of fish, and M. Johnson for counting fish eggs. Funding for the project was provided by the Gwich’in Renewable Resource Board, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Freshwater Institute), and the University of Manitoba. The Polar Continental Shelf Project (Environment Canada) provided helicopter transportation to field camps (PCSP publication # 02508).

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  1. M. VanGerwen-Toyne

    Present address: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, MB, R3T 2N6, Canada

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, R3T 2N2, Canada

    M. VanGerwen-Toyne

  2. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, MB, R3T 2N6, Canada

    R. F. Tallman

  3. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, 212B Bio-Sci Bldg., 50 Sifton Road, Winnipeg, MB, R3T 2N2, Canada

    D. M. Gillis

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  1. M. VanGerwen-Toyne
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Correspondence to R. F. Tallman.

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VanGerwen-Toyne, M., Gillis, D.M. & Tallman, R.F. Statistical power: an important consideration in designing community-based monitoring programs for Arctic and sub-Arctic subsistence fisheries. Polar Biol 37, 1435–1444 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-014-1533-7

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