Abstract
Climate change will cause large-scale plant migration. Seedling recruitment constitutes a bottleneck in the migration process but is itself climate-dependent. We tested the effect of warming on early establishment of three Arctic pioneer species, while holding other environmental variables constant. Seeds and bulbils were sown in artificial gaps in dry Arctic tundra and subjected to a 13-day heating of the soil surface by 2–8°C, simulating temperature increases ranging from the general summer warming to heat waves projected to occur more frequently with global warming. All species showed decreased establishment with increasing soil surface temperature. The short-term heat pulse decreased establishment of Polygonum viviparum and Saxifraga cernua, whereas establishment of Cerastium alpinum decreased with temperature due to more permanent natural variation in micro-climate. The treatment effects increased by the quadrat of the temperature increase. Warming and in particular heat waves may result in declining establishment of Arctic plants in dry tundra regions.
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Acknowledgments
Jørgen Meisfjord is thanked for helpful suggestions regarding nonlinear mixed-effects models, Melanie Pantz for assistance in the field, and two anonymous reviewers and Angela Moles for suggesting very valuable improvements on earlier versions of the manuscript. The study was supported by a grant to BJG by The National Science Foundation in Denmark 21-02-0515 and by project G.0357.02 of the Research Foundation—Flanders. Ann Milbau holds a postdoctoral research grant and Anna Shevtsova a visiting postdoctoral fellowship from the Research Foundation—Flanders.
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300_2009_608_MOESM1_ESM.tif
Supplementary material 1 Observations of seedling numbers in micro-plots along days in 2003 shown with the predictions of the NLME-model. Above each panel is indicated the modelled soil surface temperature increase from the linear mixed-effects model (Fig. 1). (TIFF 657 kb)
300_2009_608_MOESM2_ESM.eps
Supplementary material 2 Observation of number of seedlings of the three species recorded in the microplots at day 55 after warming began plottet against the manipulated temperature increase. Averages for seedling number for each temperature increase are indicated (-). (EPS 12 kb)
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Graae, B.J., Ejrnæs, R., Marchand, F.L. et al. The effect of an early-season short-term heat pulse on plant recruitment in the Arctic. Polar Biol 32, 1117–1126 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-009-0608-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-009-0608-3