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The dynamics of cocirculating influenza strains conferring partial cross-immunity

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 We develop a model that describes the dynamics of a finite number of strains that confer partial cross-protection among strains. The immunity structure of the host population is captured by an index-set notation where the index specifies the set of strains to which the host has been exposed. This notation allows us to derive threshold conditions for the invasion of a new strain and to show the existence of an endemic multi-strain equilibrium in a special case. The dynamics of systems consisting of more than two strains can exhibit sustained oscillations caused by an overshoot in the immunity to a specific strain if cross-protection is sufficiently strong.

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Received 15 January 1996; received in revised form 24 June 1996

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Andreasen, V., Lin, J. & Levin, S. The dynamics of cocirculating influenza strains conferring partial cross-immunity. J Math Biol 35, 825–842 (1997).

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