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Prediction of patients with multiple myeloma eligible for second- or third-line treatment in France

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Abstract

Multiple myeloma (MM) is one of the most common hematological malignancies, with an estimated 4888 incident cases in France in 2012. The management of patients with MM has changed considerably in recent years. We proposed an approach to predict the number of patients with multiple myeloma eligible for second- and third-line treatment for the period 2012–2020. The input parameters of this model were incident cases of multiple myeloma from the Basse-Normandie French Regional Registry of Hematological Malignancies (RRHMBN) for the period 2000–2012 and survival rates among patients under and over age 65 from the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). In addition, data on mortality rates and progression-free survival (PFS) were extracted from the literature. Our analyses showed that the total incidence of MM in France is predicted to increase by 29 % between 2012 and 2020. We used the proposed approach to predict that at least 47.8 % of first-line MM patients will be eligible for second-line treatment (and 45.6 % will be eligible for third-line treatment). Predicting the number of patients with MM eligible for a new treatment is a prerequisite to planning healthcare and calculating treatment costs.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Anaïs Billard, Yves Hennequin, and Dimitri Verza from Kephren Publishing for their valuable comments regarding this work. The authors are also very grateful to the Association of the French Cancer Registries (FRANCIM) and the Basse-Normandie Regional Registry of Hematological Malignancies (RRHMBN).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. INSERM, CR1219 (Biostatistics), 146 rue Léo Saignat, 33076, Bordeaux CEDEX, France

    Virginie Rondeau

  2. ISPED, Université de Bordeaux, 146 rue Léo Saignat, 33076, Bordeaux CEDEX, France

    Virginie Rondeau

  3. Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Caen, Caen, France

    Edouard Cornet & Xavier Troussard

  4. Registre Régional des Hémopathies Malignes de Basse-Normandie, Caen, France

    Edouard Cornet & Xavier Troussard

  5. Department of Hematology, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nantes, Nantes, France

    Philippe Moreau

Authors
  1. Virginie Rondeau
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  2. Edouard Cornet
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  3. Philippe Moreau
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  4. Xavier Troussard
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Correspondence to Virginie Rondeau.

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Rondeau, V., Cornet, E., Moreau, P. et al. Prediction of patients with multiple myeloma eligible for second- or third-line treatment in France. Ann Hematol 95, 1307–1313 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00277-016-2688-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00277-016-2688-9

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