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Evaluation of the effects of climate change on field-water demands using limited ground information: a case study in Balkh province, Afghanistan

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Abstract

Climate change is a significant global issue that will affect regional agriculture and water management of irrigation supplies. In this study, we project climate change impacts on water and irrigation requirements for major crops—wheat, cotton, and apricots—in Balkh province, Afghanistan. The methodology utilizes satellite imagery to overcome limitations in ground measurements necessary to understand current crop conditions and cultivation schedules for the study site. The climate model-averaged results project an increasing trend in both crop water and irrigation requirements for the study area, with larger trends for the climate model and scenario combinations that project the largest temperature increases. Future trends in the year-to-year variability of field water requirements do not contain a clear trend for most crops. The magnitude of projected changes vary significantly between individual climate models, demonstrating the importance of applying multiple climate models to project future conditions in agricultural water management. The results demonstrate the efficacy of using globally available data, including satellite imagery and global climate model information, to overcome lack of in situ observations. The findings also highlight challenges to current agricultural paradigms in areas such as Afghanistan that are arid to semi-arid and do not have adequate irrigation infrastructure.

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Acknowledgements

This study is conducted as a part of a World Bank Project, “Pilot Climate Change Impact Analysis on Hydrology and Agriculture in Afghanistan (P160070)” and JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP18K05886. Authors acknowledge Ms. Akiko Nakagawa, Mr. Shoaib Saboory, and other World Bank members for collaborative support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sustained Rural Development Programme (SRDP) Phase IV, Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development, Balkh, Afghanistan

    Abdullah Jami

  2. Department of Forest and Environmental Sciences, University of Miyazaki, 1-1, Gakuen Kibanadai-Nishi, Miyazaki, 889-2192, Japan

    Masahiro Tasumi

  3. Energy and Environment Science and Technology, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, USA

    Thomas Michael Mosier

  4. Graduate School of Environmental and Life Science, Okayama University, Okayama, Japan

    Hiroaki Somura

  5. The World Bank, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Toru Konishi

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  1. Abdullah Jami
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Correspondence to Masahiro Tasumi.

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Jami, A., Tasumi, M., Mosier, T.M. et al. Evaluation of the effects of climate change on field-water demands using limited ground information: a case study in Balkh province, Afghanistan. Irrig Sci 37, 583–595 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00271-019-00638-2

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