Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Landscape Change Scenarios: Developing Participatory Tools for Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change

  • Published:
Environmental Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on people and ecosystems have been studied at both local and global levels. The environment is expected to change significantly, and the role of local communities in shaping more resilient landscapes is considered crucial. This research focuses on rural regions highly susceptible to climate change impacts. The objective was to enhance conditions for climate resilient development on a microlocal level by encouraging diverse stakeholders to participate in developing sustainable landscape management. This paper introduces a novel interdisciplinary mixed-method approach to landscape scenario development, combining research-driven and participatory approaches and integrating quantitative methods with qualitative ethnographic inquiry. Two scenarios for 2050 were built: a research-driven, business-as-usual scenario accounting for mandatory adaptation policies and an optimistic scenario combining research-driven and participatory approaches, including additional feasible community-based measures. While the differences between the projected land use seem to be relatively subtle, the optimistic scenario would in fact lead to a considerably more resilient landscape. The results highlight the role of interdisciplinarity and ethnography in gaining good local knowledge and building an atmosphere of trust. These factors supported the research credibility, strengthened the legitimacy of the intervention in local affairs, and contributed to the active participation of the stakeholders. We argue that despite its time, intense effort and limited direct policy impact, the mixed-method approach is highly suitable for the microlocal level. It encourages citizens to think about how their environment is threatened by climate change impacts and increases their willingness to contribute to climate resilience.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Absar SM, Preston BL (2015) Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies. Glob Environ Change 33:83–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.004.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aggrey JJ, Ros-Tonen MAF, Asubonteng KO (2021) Using Participatory Spatial Tools to Unravel Community Perceptions of Land-Use Dynamics in a Mine-Expanding Landscape in Ghana. Environ Manag 68:720–737. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-021-01494-7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Angrosino M (2007) Doing Ethnographic and Observational Research. SAGE Publications, London.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bernard J (2018) Rural quality of life - poverty, satisfaction and opportunity deprivation in different types of rural territories. Eur Ctry 10:191–209. https://doi.org/10.2478/euco-2018-0012.

  • Best L, Fung-Loy K, Ilahibaks N, et al. (2021) Toward inclusive landscape governance in contested landscapes: exploring the contribution of participatory tools in the Upper Suriname River Basin. Environ Manag 68. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-021-01504-8.

  • Bhaskar R, Frank C, Hoyer K-G, Naess P, Parker JE (2010) Interdisciplinarity and Climate Change: transforming knowledge and practice for our global future. Taylor and Francis Group, London and New York.

  • Binek J, Synková K, Svobodová H, Šilhan Z, Šerý O (2018) Strategie rozvoje mikroregionu Hustopečsko. GAREP, Brno (in Czech).

  • Butler JRA, Bergseng AM, Bohensky E, Pedde S, Aitkenhead M, Hamden R (2020) Adapting scenarios for climate adaptation: Practitioners’ perspectives on a popular planning method. Environ Sci Pol 104:13–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.10.014.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Čarková A, Kolařík T, Horňáková H (2016) Strategie vedeného místního rozvoje regionu Kyjovské Slovácko na období 2014 – 2020. MAS Kyjovské Slovácko, Kyjov (in Czech).

  • Čarková A, Kolařík T, Horňáková H (2021) Strategie komunitně vedeného místního rozvoje MAS Kyjovské Slovácko v pohybu, z.s. na období 2021 – 2027. MAS Kyjovské Slovácko, Kyjov (in Czech).

  • Cerreta M, Panaro S (2017) From perceived values to shared values: a multi-stakholder spatial decision analysis (M-SSDA) for resilient landscape. Sustainability 9:1113. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071113.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Císař O, Linek L, Petrúšek I, Vráblíková K (2018) Občanství a politická participace v České Republice. SLON, Praha (in Czech).

  • Crate S, Nuttall M (2016a) Anthropology and Climate Change: From Encounters to Actions. Routledge, London and New York.

  • Crate S, Nuttall M (2016b) Anthropology and Climate Change: From Actions to Transformations. Routledge, London and New York.

  • Čejka T, Trnka M, Krusic PJ, Stobbe U, Oliach D, Václavík T, Tegel W (2020) Predicted climate change will increase the truffle cultivation potential in Central Europe. Sci Rep. 10:21281. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76177-0.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • DeWalt KM, DeWalt BR (2002) Participant observation: a guide for fieldworkers. AltaMira Press: Walnut Creek, CA.

  • Do TH, Vu TP, Catacutan D, Nguyen VT (2021) Governing landscapes for ecosystem services: a participatory land-use scenario development in the Northwest Montane Region of Vietnam. Environ Manag 68. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-020-01378-2.

  • Dockerty T, Lovett A, Appleton K, Bone A, Sünnenberg G (2006) Developing scenarios and visualization to illustrate potential policy and climatic influences on future agricultural landscapes. Agric, Ecosyst Environ 114:103–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.008.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dove MR (ed) (2014) The Anthropology of Climate Change: An Historical Reader. Part IV: Knowledge and its Circulation. Wiley Blackwell: Malden, MA.

  • Duguma DW, Schultner J, Abson DJ, Fischer J (2022) From stories to maps: translating participatory scenario narratives into spatially explicit information. Ecol Soc 27:13. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13200-270213.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Escobar A (1998) Whose Knowledge, Whose Nature Diversity, Conservation, and the Political Ecology of Social Movements. J Polit Ecol 5:53–81.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eilola S, Käyhkö N, Fagerholm N (2021) Lessons learned from participatory land use planning with high-resolution remote sensing images in Tanzania: Practitioners’ and participants’ perspectives. Land Use Policy 109:105649. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105649.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • European Commission (2018) Proposal for a regulation of the European parliament and the council establishing rules on support for strategic plans to be drawn up by Member States under the Common agricultural policy (CAP Strategic Plans) and finance by the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF) and by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) and repealing Regulation (EU) No 1305/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council and Regulation (EU) No 1307/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council. COM (2018), 392.

  • European Commission (2019) The European Green Deal. COM(2019), 640.

  • European Commission (2021) ‘Fit for 55’: delivering the EU’s 2030 Climate Target on the way to climate neutrality. COM(2021), 550.

  • Fagerholm N, Käyhkö N (2009) Participatory mapping and geographical patterns of the social landscape values of rural communities in Zanzibar. Tanzan Fenn – Int J Geogr 187:43–60. https://fennia.journal.fi/article/view/3703/3491.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fiske SJ, Crate SA, Crumley CL, Galvin K, Lazars H, Lucero L Oliver-Smith A, Orlove B, Strauss S, Wilk R (2014) Changing the Atmosphere. Anthropology and Climate Change. Final report of the AAA Global Climate Change Task Force. American Anthropological Association, Arlington.

  • Flick U ed (2022) The SAGE Handbook of qualitative data analysis. Sage, Los Angeles.

    Google Scholar 

  • Flynn M, Ford JD, Pearce T, Harper SL (2018) Participatory scenario planning and climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research in the Arctic. Environ Sci Pol 79:45–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.10.012.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forsyth T (2017) Community-Based Adaptation to Climate Change. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. Retrieved 6 Jan 2023, from https://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-602.

  • Gay y Blasco P, Wardle H (2019) How to read ethnography (Second). Routledge Taylor and Francis Group, London.

  • Gondo T (2013) Anchoring climate change action in regional and local context through participatory GIS: A developing country perspective. 3rd International conference on ecological, environmental and biological sciences, April 29-30, Singapore. Retrieved 6 Jan 2023 from https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1andtype=pdfanddoi=9a9a0fd8933077fa84f815d537cab2545852fd4a.

  • Harmáčková ZV, Blättler L, Aguiar APD et al. (2022) Linking multiple values of nature with future impacts: value-based participatory scenario development for sustainable landscape governance. Sustain Sci 17:849–864. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-00953-8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harmáčková ZV, Vačkář D (2018) Future uncertainty in scenarios of ecosystem services provision: Linking differences among narratives and outcomes. Ecosyst Serv 33(Part B):134–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hammersley M, Atkinson P (2019) Ethnography: Principles in Practice, Fourth edition. Routledge, London.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Hausfather Z, Peters G (2020) Emissions—the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading. Nature 577: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3.

  • Heinze A, Bongers F, Marcial NR, Barrios LEG, Kuyper TW (2022) Farm diversity and fine scale matter in the assessment of ecosystem services and land use scenarios. Agric Syst 196:103329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103329.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houet T, Loveland TR, Hubert-Moy L, Gaucherel C, Napton D, Barnes CA, Sayler K (2009) Exploring subtle land use and land cover changes: a framework for future landscape studies. Landsc Ecol 25:249–266. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-009-9362-8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hügel S, Davies AR (2020) Public participation, engagement, and climate change adaptation: a review of the research literature. WIREs Clim Change 11:e645. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.645.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huglin P (1978) Nouveau mode d’évaluation des possibilités héliothermiques d’un milieu viticole. Comptes Rendus de l’Académie d’Agriculture de Fr 64:1117–1126.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hyytiäinen K, Kolehmainen L, Amelung B, Kok K, Lonkila K-M, Malve O, Similä J, Sokero M, Zandersen M (2022) Extending the shared socioeconomic pathways for adaptation planning of blue tourism. Futures 137:102917. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2022.102917.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC-TGICA (2007) General Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Version 2. Retrieved 6 Jan 2023, from https://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/TGICA_guidance_sdciaa_v2_final.pdf.

  • IPCC (2014) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.

  • IPCC (2021) Summary for Policymakers. In: Pörtner H-O, Roberts DC, Poloczanska ES, Mintenbeck K, Tignor M, Alegría M, Craig M, Langsdorf S, Löschke S, Möller V, Okem A (eds.): Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, p. 3–33. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.001.

  • Kok K, van Vliet M, Bärlund I, Dubel A, Sendzimir J (2011) Combining participative backcasting and explorative scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project. Technol Forecast Soc Change 78:835–851. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.004.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kok K, Pedde S, Gramberger M, Harrison PA, Holman IP (2019) New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways. Reg Environ Change 19:643–654. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1400-0.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krick E (2022) Participatory Governance Practices at the Democracy-Knowledge-Nexus. Minerva 60:467–487. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11024-022-09470-z.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krkoška Lorencová E, Whitham CEL, Bašta P, Harmáčková ZV, Štěpánek P, Zahradníček P, Farda A, Vačkář D (2018) Participatory Climate Change Impact Assessment in Three Czech Cities: The Case of Heatwaves. Sustainability 10:1906. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10061906.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larrain AA, McCall MK (2019) Participatory mapping and participatory GIS for historical and archaeological landscape studies: a critical review. J Archaeol Method Theory 26:643–678. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10816-018-9385-z.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lechner AM, Brown G, Raymond CM (2015) Modelling the impact of future development and public conservation orientation on landscape connectivity for conservation planning. Lands Ecol 30:699–713. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0153-0.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lehtonen HS, Aakkula J, Fronzek S, Helin J, Hildén M, Huttunen S, Kaljonen M, Niemi J, Palosuo T, Pirttioja N, Rikkonen P, Varho V, Carter TR (2021) Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture. Reg Environ Change 21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2.

  • Madden R (2010) Being ethnographic. A guide to the theory and practice of ethnography. Sage, Los Angeles.

    Google Scholar 

  • Malek Ž, Boerboom L (2015) Participatory scenario development to address potential impacts of land use change: An example from the Italian Alps. Mt Res Dev 35:126–138. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-14-00082.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mallick SK (2021) Prediction-Adaptation-Resilience (PAR) approach—A new pathway towards future resilience and sustainable development of urban landscape. Geogr Sustainability 2:127–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2021.06.002.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mapedza E, Wright J, Fawcett R (2003) An investigation of land cover change in Mafungautsi Forest, Zimbabwe, using GIS and participatory mapping. Appl Geogr 23:1–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0143-6228(02)00070-X.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MŽP (2015) Strategy for adapting to climate change in the conditions of the Czech Republic. MŽP, Praha (in Czech).

  • MŽP (2017a) National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change. MŽP, Praha (in Czech).

  • MŽP (2017b) Climate Protection Policy of the Czech Republic. MŽP, Praha (in Czech).

  • Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nalau J, Cobb J (2022) The strengths and weaknesses of future visioning approaches for climate change adaptation: A review. Glob Environ Change 74:102527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102527.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nautiyal S, Klinsky S (2022) The knowledge politics of capacity building for climate change at the UNFCCC. Clim Pol 22:576–592. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2042176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Němec R, Vymazalová M, Skokanová H (2022) The impact of fine-scale present and historical land cover on plant diversity in Central European National Parks with heterogeneous landscapes. Land 11:814. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11060814.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nilsson AE, Bay-Larsen I, Carlsen H, van Oort B, Bjørkan M, Jylhä K, Klyuchnikova E, Masloboev V, van der Watt L-M (2017) Towards extended shared socioeconomic pathways: A combined participatory bottom-up and top-down methodology with results from the Barents region. Glob Environ Chang 45:124–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.06.001.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nilsson AE, Carson M, Cost DS, Forbes BC, Haavisto R, Karlsdottir A, Nymand Larsen J, Paasche Ø, Sarkki S, Vammen Larsen S, Pelyasov A (2021) Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic. Polar Geog 44:75–89. https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2019.1648583.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olesen JE, Trnka M, Kersebaum KC, Skjelvag AO, Seguin B, Peltonen-Sinio P, Rossi F, Kozyra J, Micale F (2011) Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change. Eur J Agron 34:96–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2010.11.003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Neill BC, Carter TR, Ebi K et al. (2020) Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nat Clim Chang 10:1074–1084. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oteros-Rozas E, Martín-López B, Daw T, Bohensky EL, Butler J, Hill R, Martin-Ortega J, Quinlan A, Ravera F, Ruiz-Mallén I, Thyresson M, Mistry J, Palomo I, Peterson GD, Plieninger T, Waylen KA, Beach D, Bohnet IC, Hamann M, Hanspach J, Hubacek K, Lavorel S, Vilardy S (2015) Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies. Ecol Soc 20:32. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07985-200432.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palazzo A, Vervoort JM, Mason-D’Croz D, Rutting L, Havlík P, Islam S, Bayala J, Valin H, Kadi Kadi HA, Thornton P, Zougmore R (2016) Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and limate futures in a global context. Glob Environ Change 45:227–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.002.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Patton MQ (2015) Qualitative research and evaluation methods: integrating theory and practice: the definitive text of qualitative inquiry frameworks and options (4th ed.). SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, USA.

  • Piccolella A (2013) Participatory mapping for adaptation to climate change: the case of Boe Boe, Solomon Islands. Knowl Manag Dev J 9:24–36.

    Google Scholar 

  • Podhrázská J, Novotný I (2007) Evaluation of the Wind Erosion Risks in GIS. Soil Water Res 2:10–13.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reed M (2008) Stakeholder Participation for Environmental Management: A Literature Review. Biol Conserv 141:2417–2431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.07.014.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Riahi K, van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E, Edmonds J, O’Neill BC, Fujimori S, Bauer N, Calvin K, Dellink R, Fricko O, Lutz W, Popp A, Crespo Cuaresma J, Samir KC, Leimbach M, Jiang L, Kram T, Rao S, Emmerling J, Ebi K, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Humpenöder F, Aleluia Da Silva L, Smith S, Stehfest E, Bosetti V, Eom J, Gernaat D, Masui T, Rogelj J, Strefler J, Drouet L, Krey V, Luderer G, Harmsen M, Takahashi K, Baumstark L, Doelman JC, Kainuma M, Klimont Z, Marangoni G, Lotze-Campen H, Obersteiner M, Tabeau A, Tavoni M (2017) The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Glob Environ Change 42:153–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ros-Tonen MAF, Willemen L (2021) Editorial: Spatial tools for integrated and inclusive landscape governance. Environ Manag 68:605–610. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-021-01548-w.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schipper ELF, Dubash NK, Mulugetta Y (2021) Climate change research and the search for solutions: rethinking interdisciplinarity. Climatic Change 168:18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03237-3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schroth O, Pond E, Sheppar SRJ (2015) Evaluating presentation formats of local climate change in community planning with regard to process and outcomes. Landsc Urban Plan 142:147–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.03.011.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skokanová H (2008) The Impact of River Engineering Works on the Dyje River Floodplain in the Czech Republic. Global Environ. A J Hist Nat Soc Sci 1:82–11.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skokanová H, Netopil P, Havlíček M, Šarapatka B (2020) The role of traditional agricultural landscape structures in changes to green infrastructure connectivity. Agric Ecosyst Environ 302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2020.107071.

  • Somuah DP, Ros-Tonen MAF, Baud ISA (2021) Local spatialized knowledge of threats to forest conservation in Ghana’s high forest zone. Environ Manag 68. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-021-01455-0.

  • Star J, Rowland E, Black M, Enquist C, Garfin G, Hoffman C, Hartmann H, Jacobs K, Moss R, Waple A (2016) Supporting Adaptation Decisions through Scenario Planning: Enabling the Effective Use of Multiple Methods. Climate Risk Manag 13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.08.001.

  • Suchá L, Vaňo S, Jančovič M, Aubrechtová T, Bašta P, Duchková H, Krkoška Lorencová E (2022) Collaborative scenario building: Engaging stakeholders to unravel opportunities for urban adaptation planning. Urban Climate 45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101277.

  • Šejnoha J, Pavlík J, Malíková M (2014) Integrovaná strategie Mistní akční skupiny Mikulovsko na období 2014-2020. MAS Mikulovsko, Mikulov (in Czech).

  • Štěpánek P, Zahradníček P, Farda A (2013) Experiences with data quality control and homogenization of daily records of various meteorological elements in the Czech Republic in the period 1961-2010. Ijödárás 117:123–141.

    Google Scholar 

  • Štěpánek P, Zahradníček P, Huth R (2011) Interpolation techniques used for data quality control and calculation of technical series: an example of Central European daily time series. Idöjárás 150:87–98.

    Google Scholar 

  • Trnka M, Bartošová L, Grammatikopoulou I et al. (2022) The Possibility of Consensus Regarding Climate Change Adaptation Policies in Agriculture and Forestry among Stakeholder Groups in the Czech Republic. Environ Manag 69:128–139. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-021-01499-2.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trnka M, Balek J, Brázdil R, Dubrovský M, Eitzinger J, Hlavinka P, Chuchuma F, Možný M, Prášil I, Růžek P, Semerádová D, Štěpánek P, Zahradníček P, Žalud Z (2021) Observed changes in the agroclimatic zones in the Czech Republic between 1961 and 2019. Plant Soil Environ 67:154–163. https://doi.org/10.17221/327/2020-PSE.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trnka M, Olesen JE, Kersebaum KC, Skjelvag AO, Eitzinger J, Seguin B, Peltonen-Sainio P, Rötter R, Ilgesias A, Orlandini S, Dumbrovský M, Hlavinka P, Balek J, Eckersten H, Cloppet E, Calanca P, Gobin A, Vučetič V, Nejedlik P, Kumar S, Lalic B, Mestre A, Rossi F, Kozyra J, Alexandrov V, Semerádová D, Žalud Z (2011) Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change. Glob Change Biol 17:2298–2318. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02396.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trnka M, Kocmánková E, Balek J, Eitzinger J, Ruget F, Formayer H, Hlavinka P, Schaumberger A, Horáková V, Možný M, Žalud Z (2010) Simple snow cover model for agrometeorological applications. Agr For Meteorol 150:1115–1127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.04.012.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeh E (2015) How can experience of local residents be “knowledge”?’ Challenges in interdisciplinary climate change research. Area: 48. https://doi.org/10.1111/area.12189.

  • van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Miller D, Brown I, Jiang Y, Castellazzi M (2016) Visualisation techniques to support public interpretation of future climate change and land-use choices: a case study from N-E Scotland. Internat J Digit Earth 9. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2015.1111949.

  • Wartmann FM, Purves RS (2017) What’s (Not) on the Map: Landscape Features from Participatory Sketch Mapping Differ from Local Categories Used in Language. Land 6:79. https://doi.org/10.3390/land6040079.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • West CT, Ilboudo Nébié EK, Moody AJ (2020) Participatory mapping with high-resolution satellite imagery: a mixed method assessment of land degradation and rehabilitation in northern Burkina Faso. J Ecol Anthropol 22:1–19. https://doi.org/10.5038/2162-4593.22.1.1261.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willis R, Curato N, Smith G (2022) Deliberative democracy and the climate crisis. Wiley Interdiscip Rev: Clim Change 13:e759. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.759.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We would like to sincerely thank all participants in our research who generously shared their time, experiences, and insights with us. We would also like to thank the reviewers for their detailed and valuable comments. The work is part of the project TL02000048/Stories of Drought, which was co-financed from the state budget by the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic under the ÉTA Programme. The authors took advantage of climate change scenarios developed by MT within the research program SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions“ (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797). The authors would also like to thank Monika Bláhová and Daniela Semerádová (CzechGlobe) for preparing Fig. 3 maps.

Author contributions

M.Z., H.S. and M.T. wrote the main manuscript text, H.S. prepared Figs. 1, 2, 4 and 5, M.T. prepared Figs. 3 and 6. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hana Skokanová.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zandlová, M., Skokanová, H. & Trnka, M. Landscape Change Scenarios: Developing Participatory Tools for Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change. Environmental Management 72, 631–656 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-023-01840-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-023-01840-x

Keywords

Navigation