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Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulting from Rapid Climate Change

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Abstract

Climate-change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, and invasive species. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types, and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late-century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low—B1, moderate—A1B, and high—A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess installation vulnerability (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation, and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States, and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of training, and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat, and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision-support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

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Data availability

Data are available on request from authors.

Notes

  1. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.

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Acknowledgements

Special thanks to S. Brasfield, N. Bean, and E. Britzke for project assistance throughout this effort. M. Adams and G. Nowacki reviewed an earlier draft of this paper. Funding for this work was provided by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center’s Environmental Quality and Installation Research Program to Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.

Funding

This project was funded by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center’s Environmental Quality and Installation Research Program.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geospatial and Environmental Analysis Program, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA

    Richard H. Odom

  2. U.S. Geological Survey, Virginia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA

    W. Mark Ford

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  1. Richard H. Odom
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Contributions

WMF acquired project support. RHO and WMF co-designed the study. RHO was responsible for data analysis and interpretation. RHO and WMF co-wrote the paper.

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Correspondence to W. Mark Ford.

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Appendix

Appendix

Table 3 Department of defense installations in the continental United States (Source: Military Installations, Ranges, and Training Areas (point locations and boundaries), Version 1.0, June 21, 2010, accessed 11/16/2012 from http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/bei/opengov/installations_ranges.zip)
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Table 4 General circulation models (GCM) available at Climatewizard.org that were used collectively to generate temperature and precipitation projections to formulate Holdridge Life Zones (Girvetz et al. 2009)
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Odom, R.H., Ford, W.M. Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulting from Rapid Climate Change. Environmental Management 66, 564–589 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-020-01331-3

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