Skip to main content

Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulting from Rapid Climate Change

Abstract

Climate-change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, and invasive species. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types, and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late-century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low—B1, moderate—A1B, and high—A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess installation vulnerability (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation, and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States, and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of training, and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat, and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision-support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Data availability

Data are available on request from authors.

Notes

  1. 1.

    Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.

References

  1. Abatzoglou JT, Kolden CA (2011) Climate change in western US deserts: potential for increased wildfire and invasive annual grasses. Range Ecol Manag 64:471–478

    Google Scholar 

  2. AchutaRao K, Covey C, Doutriaux C, Fiorino M, Gleckler P, Phillips T, Sperber K, Taylor K (2004) An appraisal of coupled climate model simulations. Bader D, ed. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, UCRL-TR-202550, August 16, 2004, 197pp. http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/appraisal.php. Accessed 10 April 2017

  3. Alexander HD, Arthur MA (2014) Increasing red maple leaf litter alters decomposition rates and nitrogen cycling in historically oak-dominated forests of the eastern. U S Ecosys 17:1371–1383

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Araujo MB, Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Erhard M (2005) Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change. Glob Change Biol 11:1504–1513

    Google Scholar 

  5. Bagne KE, Finch DM (2012) Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-284. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, p 139

    Google Scholar 

  6. Bagne KE, Finch DM (2013) Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at Fort Huachuca, Arizona. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-302. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, p 183

    Google Scholar 

  7. Balmaseda MA, Trenberth KE, Källén E (2013) Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content. Geophys Res Lett 40:1754–1759

    Google Scholar 

  8. Beckage B, Osborne B, Gavin DG, Pucko C, Siccama T, Perkins T (2008) A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(11):4197–4202

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Bergengren JC, Waliser DE, Yung YL (2011) Ecological sensitivity: a biospheric view of climate change. Climatic Change 107:433–457

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Blomberg EJ, Sedinger JS, Atamian MT, Nonne DV (2012) Characteristics of climate and landscape disturbance influence the dynamics of greater sage-grouse populations. Ecosphere 3(6):55

    Google Scholar 

  11. Bonan GB (2008) Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Sci 320:1444–1449

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Botkin DB, Saxe H, Araújo MB, Betts R, Bradshaw RHW, Cedhagen T, Chesson P, Dawson TP, Etterson JR, Faith DP, Ferrier S, Guisan A, Hansen AS, Hilbert DW, Loehle C, Margules C, New M, Sobel MJ, Stockwell DRB (2007) Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. BioSci 57:227–236

    Google Scholar 

  13. Braun E (1950) Deciduous forests of eastern North America: The Blakiston Co., Philadelphia, 596 p

  14. Breshears DD, Cobb NS, Rich PM, Price KP, Allen CD, Balice RG, Romme WH, Kastens JH, Floyd ML, Belnap J, Anderson JJ, Myers OB, Meyer CW (2005) Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change type drought. Proc Nat Acad Sci 102:15144–15148

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Briggs JM, Knapp AK, Blair JM, Heisler JL, Hoch GA, Lett MS, McCarron JK (2005) An ecosystem in transition: causes and consequences of the conversion of mesic grassland to shrubland. BioSci 55:243–254

    Google Scholar 

  16. Campbell JL, Rustad LE, Boyer W, Christopher SF, Driscoll CT, Fernandez IJ, Groffman PM, Houle D, Kiekbusch J, Magill AH, Mitchell MJ, Scott V, Ollingeri SV (2009) Consequences of climate change for biogeochemical cycling in forests of northeastern North America. Can J Res 39:264–284

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Canham CD, Thomas RQ (2010) Frequency, not relative abundance, of temperate tree species varies along climate gradients in eastern North America. Ecol 91(12):3433–3440

    Google Scholar 

  18. Clark JS (1998) Why trees migrate so fast: confronting theory with dispersal biology and the paleorecord. Am Nat 152:204–224

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Clark JS, Carpenter SR, Barber M, Collins S, Dobson A, Foley JA, Lodge DM, Pascual M, Pielke Jr R, Pizer W, Pringle C, Reid WV, Rose KA, Sala O, Schlesinger WH, Wall DH, Wear D (2001) Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Sci 293(5530):657–660

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Clark JS, Gelfand AE, Woodall CW, Zhu K (2014) More than the sum of the parts: forest climate response from joint species distribution models. Ecol Appl 24(5):990–999

    Google Scholar 

  21. Cleland DT, Avers PE, McNab WH, Jensen ME, Bailey RG, King T, Russell WE (1997) National hierarchical framework of ecological units. In: Boyce MS, Haney A (eds.) Ecosystem Management Applications for Sustainable Forest and Wildlife Resources. Yale University Press, New Haven, p 181–200

    Google Scholar 

  22. Comer PJ, Faber-Langendoen D, Evans R, Gawler SC, Josse C, Kittel G, Menard S, Pyne M, Reid M, Schulz K, Snow K, Teague J (2003) Ecological systems of the United States: a working classification of U.S. terrestrial systems. NatureServe, Arlington, VA

    Google Scholar 

  23. Cook BI, Ault TR, Smerdon JE (2015) Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. SciAdv 1(Feb):e1400082

    Google Scholar 

  24. Crimmins SM, Dobrowski SZ, Greenberg JA, Abatzoglou JT, Mynsberge AR (2011) Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species’ optimum elevations. Sci 331:324–327

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Dale VH, Tharp ML, Lannom KO, Hodges DG (2010) Modeling transient response of forests to climate change. Sci Total Environ 408:1888–1901

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Daly C, Neilson RP, Phillips DL (1994) A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. J Appl Meteor 33:140–158

    Google Scholar 

  27. Daly C, Halbleib M, Smith JI, Gibson WP, Doggett MK, Taylor GH, Curtis J, Pasteris PA (2008) Physiographically-sensitive mapping of temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. Int J Climatol 28:2031–2064

    Google Scholar 

  28. Davis MB, Shaw RG (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Sci 292(5517):673–679

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Deser C, Knutti R, Solomon S, Phillips AS (2012) Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat Clim Change 2:775–779

    Google Scholar 

  30. Dukes JS, Pontius J, Orwig DA, Garnas JR, Rodgers VL, Brazee NJ, Cooke BJ, Theoharides KA, Stange EE, Harrington RA, Ehrenfeld JG, Gurevitch J, Lerdau M, Stinson K, Wick R, Ayres MP (2009) Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: What can we predict? in NE Forests 2100: a synthesis of climate change impacts on forests of the Northeastern U.S. and Eastern Canada. Can J For Res 39:231–248

    Google Scholar 

  31. Duveneck MJ, Scheller RM, White MA, Handler SD, Ravenscroft C (2014) Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: a case for preserving diversity. Ecosphere 5:1–20

    Google Scholar 

  32. Dyer JM (2006) Revisiting the deciduous forests of eastern North America. BioSci 56:341–352

    Google Scholar 

  33. Elliott GP (2012) Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, USA. Ecology 93(7):1614–1625

    Google Scholar 

  34. Emanuel WR, Shugart HH, Stevenson MP (1985) Climate change and the broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem complexes. Clim Change 7:29–43

    Google Scholar 

  35. ERDC (2010) Climate change-induced biome shifts and contaminant management for DoD lands, Project Management Plan 6.2/6.3. Unpublished internal document available from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental Lab, Vicksburg, MS, p 22

    Google Scholar 

  36. Fangxing F, Bradley RS, Rawlins MA (2013) Climate change in the northeastern U.S.: regional climate model validation and climate change projections. Clim Dynam 43:145–161

    Google Scholar 

  37. Finch DM (2012) Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, p 139

    Google Scholar 

  38. Foster DR, Motzkin G, Slater B (1998) Land-use history as long-term broad-scale disturbance: regional forest dynamics in central New England. Ecosys 1:96–119

    Google Scholar 

  39. Frost C (2006) History and future of the longleaf pine ecosystem. In: Jose S, Jokela EJ, Miller DL (eds) The longleaf pine ecosystem: ecology, silviculture, and restoration. Springer, New York, NY, p 9–49

    Google Scholar 

  40. Gibson WP, Daly C, Kittel T, Nychka D, Johns C, Rosenbloom N, McNab A, Taylor G (2002) Development of a 103-year high-resolution climate data set for the conterminous United States. Proc.13th AMS Conf. Appl Clim 16:181–183

    Google Scholar 

  41. Girvetz EH, Zganjar C, Raber GT, Maurer EB, Kareiva P, Lawler JL (2009) Applied climate-change analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool. PLoS ONE 4(12):e8320. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0008320.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Gleckler PJ, Taylor KE, Doutriaux C (2008) Performance metrics for climate models. J Geophys Res 113:D06104. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Grzybowski JA, Tazik DJ, Schnell GD (1994) Regional analysis of black-capped vireo breeding habitats. Condor 96:512–544

    Google Scholar 

  44. Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8:993–1009

    Google Scholar 

  45. Hall A (2014) Projecting regional change. Sci 346(6216):1461–1462

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  46. Hamburg SP, Cogbill CV (1988) Historical decline of red spruce populations and climatic warming. Nature 331(6155):428–431

    Google Scholar 

  47. Hanberry B, Palik B, He H (2012) Comparison of historical and current forest surveys for detection of homogenization and mesophication of Minnesota forests. Land Ecol 27:1495–1512

    Google Scholar 

  48. Hansen AJ, Neilson RP, Dale VH, Flather CH, Iverson LR, Currie DJ, Shafer S, Cook R, Bartlein PJ (2001) Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes: interactions between climate change and land use are projected to cause large shifts in biodiversity. BioSci 51:765–779

    Google Scholar 

  49. Hayhoe K, Wake CP, Huntington TG, Luo L, Schwartz MD, Sheffield J, Wood E, Anderson B, Bradbury J, DeGaetano A, Troy TJ, Wolfe D (2007) Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the U.S. Northeast. Clim Dyn 28:381–407

    Google Scholar 

  50. Herr A, Dambacher JM, Pinkard E, Glen M, Mohammed C, Wardlaw T (2016) The uncertain impact of climate change on forest ecosystems—How qualitative modelling can guide future research for quantitative model development. Envir Model Softw 76:95–107

    Google Scholar 

  51. Hinzman LD, Bettez ND, Bolton WR, Chapin FS, Dyurgerov MB, Fastie CL, Griffith B, Hollister RD, Hope A, Huntington HP, Jensen AM, Jia GJ, Jorgenson T, Kane DL, Klein DR, Kofinas G, Lynch AH, Lloyd AH, McGuire AD, Nelson FE, Oechel WC, Osterskamp TE, Racine CH, Romanovsky VE, Stone RS, Stow DA, Sturm M, Tweedie CE, Vourlitis GL, Walker MD, Walker DA, Webber PJ, Welker JM, Winker KS, Yoskikawa K (2005) Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other Arctic Regions. Climatic Change 72(3):251–298

    Google Scholar 

  52. Hof C, Levinsky I, Araujo MB, Rahbek C (2011) Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change. Glob Change Biol 17:2987–2990

    Google Scholar 

  53. Holdridge LR (1947) Determination of world plant formations from simple climatic data. Sci 108:367–368

    Google Scholar 

  54. Holdridge LR (1965) Life zone ecology, Revised Edition. Tropical Science Center, San Jose, Costa Rica, p 149

    Google Scholar 

  55. Hovick TJ, Elmore RD, Allred BW, Fuhlendorf SD, Dahlgren DK (2014) Landscapes as a moderator of thermal extremes: a case study from an imperiled grouse. Ecosphere https://doi.org/10.1890/ES13-00340.1

  56. Huntington TG, Richardson AD, McGuire KJ, Hayhoe K (2009) Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems. Can J Res 39:199–212

    Google Scholar 

  57. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. contribution of working groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, p 104

  58. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds.) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p 1–32

  59. Iverson LR, Prasad AM (1998) Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecol Monogr 68:465–485

    Google Scholar 

  60. Iverson LR, Prasad AM, Matthews SN, Peters M (2008) Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern U.S. tree species under six climate scenarios. Ecol Manag 254:390–406

    Google Scholar 

  61. Jia M, Liu D, Song K, Wang Z, Ren C (2012) Mapping biomes of Australia based on the Holdridge Life Zone Model. Intl Conf Comp Vision Remote Sens IEEE 2012:362–365

    Google Scholar 

  62. Jain AK (2010) Data clustering: 50 years beyond K-means. Pattern Recog Lett 31:651–666

    Google Scholar 

  63. Johnson KL, Wickersham L, Neville T et al. (2011) Habitat use at multiple scales by pinyon-juniper birds on Department of Defense lands: landscape scale. Natural Heritage New Mexico Publication 10-GTR-360, Albuquerque NM, p 49

    Google Scholar 

  64. Jung M, Reichstein M, Ciais P, Seneviratne SI, Sheffield J, Bonan G, Chen J, Cescatti A, de Jeu RAM, Dolman AJ, Eugster W, Gerten D, Gianelle D, Gobron N, Goulden ML, Heinke J, Kimball J, Law BE, Montagnani J, Mu Q, Mueller B, Oleson K, Papale D, Richardson A, Roupsard O, Running S, Tomelleri E, Viovy N, Weber U, Williams C, Wood E, Zaehle S, Zhang K (2010) Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nat 467:951–954

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  65. Kaye MW, Woodhouse CA, Jackson JT (2010) Persistence and expansion of ponderosa pine woodlands in the west-central Great Plains during the past two centuries. J Biogeog 37(9):1668–1683

    Google Scholar 

  66. Kelly AE, Goulden ML (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proc Nat Acad Sci 105:11823–11826

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  67. Keys Jr J, Carpenter C, Hooks S, Koenig F, McNab WH, Russell W, Smith ML (1995) Ecological units of the eastern United States – First Approximation (CD-ROM). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. GIS coverage in ARCINFO format, selected imagery, and map unit tables, Atlanta, GA

    Google Scholar 

  68. Klos RJ, Wang GG, Bauerle WL, Rieck JR (2009) Drought impact on forest growth and mortality in the southeast USA: an analysis using Forest Health and Monitoring data. Ecol Appl 19:669–708

    Google Scholar 

  69. Kruskal WH, Wallis WA (1952) Use of ranks in one-criterion variance analysis. J Am Stat Assoc 47(260):583–621

    Google Scholar 

  70. Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, Ackerly DD (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature 462:1052–1055

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  71. Loeb SC, Winters EA (2013) Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates. Ecol Evol 3:103–114

    Google Scholar 

  72. Lovett GM, Canham CD, Arthur MA, Weathers KC, Fitzhugh RD (2006) Forest ecosystem responses to exotic pests and pathogens in eastern North America. BioSci 56(5):395–405

    Google Scholar 

  73. Luce CH, Vose JM, Pederson N, Campbell J, Millar C, Kormos P, Woods R (2016) Contributing factors for drought in United States forest ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty. Ecol Manag 380:299–308

    Google Scholar 

  74. Lugo AE, Brown SL, Dodson R, Smith TS, Shugart HH (1999) Special Paper: The Holdridge life zones of the conterminous United States in relation to ecosystem mapping. J Biogeog 26:1025–1038

    Google Scholar 

  75. Malanson G, Butler DR, Fagre DB, Walsh SJ, Tomback DF, Daniels LD, Resler LM, Smith WK, Weiss DJ, Peterson DL, Bunn AG, Hiemstra CA, Liptzin D, Bourgerson PS, Shen Z, Millar CI (2007) Alpine treeline of western North America: linking organism-to-landscape dynamics. Phys Geog 28:378–396

    Google Scholar 

  76. Maurer EP, Brekke L, Pruitt T, Duffy PB (2007) Fine-resolution climate change projections enhance regional climate change impact studies. Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 88(47):504. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO470006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  77. McFarland TM, Mathewson HA, Groce JE, Morrison ML, Wilkins RN (2013) A range-wide survey of the endangered black-capped vireo in Texas. Southeast Nat 12:41–60

    Google Scholar 

  78. McNulty SP, Caldwell P, Doyle T, Johnsen K et al. (2013) Forests and climate change in the southeast USA. In: Ingram K, Dow K, Carter L, Anderson J eds. 2013. Climate of the southeast United States: variability, change, impacts, and vulnerability. Island Press, Washington, DC, p 165–189

  79. McKenney DW, Pedlar JH, Hutchinson MF, Lawrence K, Campbell K (2007) Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of North American trees. BioSci 57:939–948

    Google Scholar 

  80. McKenney DW, Pedlar JH, Rood RB, Price D (2011) Revisiting projected shifts in the climate envelopes of North American trees using updated general circulation models. Glob Change Biol 17:2720–2730

    Google Scholar 

  81. Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RI, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteor Soc 88:1383–1394

    Google Scholar 

  82. Memmott J, Craze PG, Waser NM, Price MV (2007) Global warming and the disruption of plant pollinator interactions. Ecol Lett 10:710–717

    Google Scholar 

  83. Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N, Koch E, Assa A, Ahas R, Alm-Kubler K, Bissolli P, Braskvaska O, Briede A, Chmielewski F, Crepinsek Z, Curnel Y, Dahl A, Defila C, Donnelly A, Filella Y, Jatczak K, Mage F, Mestre A, Nordli O, Penuelas J, Pirinen P, Remisova V, Scheifinger H, Striz M, Susnik A, Van Vliet AJH, Wielgolaski F, Zach S, Zust A (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob Change Biol 12:1969–1976

    Google Scholar 

  84. Menzel MA, Menzel JM, Carter TC, Ford WM, Edwards JW (2001) Review of the forest habitat relationships of the Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station. Report NE-284. Newtown Square, PA. 21 p

  85. Millar CN, Stephenson N, Stephens S (2007) Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol Appl 17(8):2145–2151

    Google Scholar 

  86. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and Minnesota Army National Guard. 2015. Minnesota Army National Guard, Camp Ripley Training Center and Arden Hills Army Training Site, 2014 Conservation Program Report, January 1-December 31, 2014. Compiled by Dietz NJ, Dirks BJ, Camp Ripley Series Report No. 24, Little Falls, MN. 208 pp.

  87. Mohan JE, Cox RM, Iverson LR (2009) Composition and carbon dynamics of forests in northeastern North America in a future, warmer world. Can J Res 39:213–230

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  88. Moritz C, Agudo R (2013) The future of species under climate change: resilience or decline? Sci 341:504–508

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  89. Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grubler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p 599

    Google Scholar 

  90. Notz D, Stroeve J (2016) Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission. Sci 354(6313):747–750

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  91. Nowacki GJ, Abrams MD (2008) The demise of fire and “mesophication” of forests in the eastern United States. BioSci 58(2):123–138

    Google Scholar 

  92. Nowacki GJ, Abrams MD (2015) Is climate an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the Eastern United States? Glob Change Biol 21:314–334

    Google Scholar 

  93. Odom RH, Ford WM (2020) Developing species-age cohorts from forest inventory and analysis data to parameterize a forest landscape model. For Res. (in review)

  94. Olson DM, Dinerstein E, Wikramanayake ED, Burgess ND, Powell GVN, Underwood EC, D’amico JA, Itoua I, Stand HE, Morrison JC, Loucks CJ, Allnutt TF, Ricketts TH, Kura Y, Lamoreux JF, Wettengel WW, Hedao P, Kassem KR (2001) Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on earth: a new global map of terrestrial ecoregions provides an innovative tool for conserving biodiversity. BioSci 51:933–938

    Google Scholar 

  95. Omernik JM, Griffith GE (2014) Ecoregions of the conterminous United States: evolution of a hierarchical spatial framework. Enviro Manag 54(6):1249–1266

    Google Scholar 

  96. Overpeck JT, Bartleinz PJ, Webb T (1991) Potential magnitude of future vegetation change in eastern North America: comparisons with the past. Sci 254(5032):692–695

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  97. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nat 421:37–42

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  98. Peery MZ, Gutiérrez RJ, Kirby R, LeDee OE, LaHaye W (2012) Climate change and spotted owls: potentially contrasting responses in the Southwestern United States. Glob Change Biol 18:865–880

    Google Scholar 

  99. Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Santer BD, Gleckler PJ (2009) Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proc Nat Acad Sci 106:8441–8446

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  100. Pielke Sr. RA, Adegoke JO, Chase TN, Marshall CH, Matsui T, Niyogi D (2007) A new paradigm for assessing the role of agriculture in the climate system and in climate change. Agricul Meteor 142(2–4):234–254

    Google Scholar 

  101. Post E, Forchhammer MC, Bret-Harte MS, Callaghan TV, Christensen TR, Elberling B, Fox AD, Gilg O, Hik DS, Høye TT, Ims RA, Jeppsesn E, Klein DR, Madson J, McGuire AD, Rysgaard S, Schindler DE, Stirling I, Tamstorf MP, Nicholas NJC, van der Wal R, Welker J, Wookey PA, Schmidt NM, Aastrup P (2009) Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change. Sci 325:1355–1358

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  102. Potter C, Li S, Huang S, Crabtree RL (2012) Analysis of sapling density regeneration in Yellowstone National Park with hyperspectral remote sensing data. Remote Sens. Environ 121:61–68

    Google Scholar 

  103. Prasad AM, Iverson LR, Matthews S, Peters M (2007) A climate change atlas for 134 forest tree species of the eastern United States [database]. Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH, http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree

  104. Pucko C, Beckage B, Perkins T, Keeton WS (2011) Species shifts in response to climate change: Individual or shared responses? J Torre Bot Soc 138:156–176

    Google Scholar 

  105. Radeloff VC, Mladenoff DJ, He HS, Boyce MS (1999) Forest landscape change in the northwestern Wisconsin Pine Barrens from pre-European settlement to the present. Can J Res 29:1649–1659

    Google Scholar 

  106. Ralston J, Kirchmann JJ (2013) Predicted range shifts in North American boreal forest birds and the effect of climate change on genetic diversity in blackpoll warblers (Setophaga striata). Conserv Genet 14:453–555

    Google Scholar 

  107. Rehfeldt GE, Crookston NL, Warwell MV, Evans JS (2006) Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States. Int J Plant Sci 167:1123–1150

    Google Scholar 

  108. Rodenhouse NL, Matthews SN, McFarland KP, Lambert JD, Iverson LR, Prasad A, Sillett TS, Holmes RT (2008) Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. Mitig Adap Strat Glob Change 13(5-6):517–540

    Google Scholar 

  109. Rodenhouse NL, Christenson LM, Parry D, Green LE (2009) Climate change effects on native fauna of northeastern forests. Can J Res 39:249–263

    Google Scholar 

  110. Rogers TR, Russel FL (2014) Historical patterns of oak population expansion in the Chautauqua Hills, Kansas. J Biogeog 41:2105–2114

    Google Scholar 

  111. Seager R, Ting M, Held I, Kushnir Y, Lu J, Vecchi G, Huang H, Harnik N, Leetmaa A, Lau N, Lil C, Veleze J, Naik N (2007) Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Sci 316:1181

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  112. Seneviratne SI, Luthi D, Litschi M, Schar C (2006) Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nat 443:205–209

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  113. Silvis A, Perry RW, Ford WM (2016) Relationships of three species of white-nose syndrome-impacted bats to forest condition and management. U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station General Technical Report. SRS–214, Ashville, NC, p 57

    Google Scholar 

  114. Sisneros R, Huang J, Ostrouchov G, Hoffman F (2011) Visualizing life zone boundary sensitivities across climate models and temporal spans. Proced Comp Sci 4(2011):1582–1591

    Google Scholar 

  115. Snell RS, Cowling SA (2015) Consideration of dispersal processes and northern refugia can improve our understanding of past plant migration rates in North America. J Biogeogr 42:1677–1688

    Google Scholar 

  116. Vadeboncoeur MA, Hamburg SP, Cogbill CV, Sugimura WY (2012) A comparison of presettlement and modern forest composition in central New Hampshire. Can J Res 42:190–202

    Google Scholar 

  117. Van Mantgem PJ, Stephenson NL (2007) Apparent climatically induced increase of tree mortality rates in a temperate forest. Ecol Lett 10:909–916

    Google Scholar 

  118. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJ, Fromentin JM, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389–395

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  119. Washington WM, Weatherly JM, Meehl GA, Semtner AJ, Bettge TW, Craig AP, Strand WG, Arblaster J, Wayland VB, James R, Zhang Y (2000) Parallel Climate Model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Clim Dynam 16:755–774

    Google Scholar 

  120. Weiss JL, Overpeck JT (2005) Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool? Glob Change Biol 11:2065–2077

    Google Scholar 

  121. Williams AP, Allen CD, Macalad AK, Griffin D, Woodhouse CA, Meko DM, Swetnam TW, Rauscher SA, Seager R, Grissino-Mayer HD, Dean JD, Cook ER, Gangodagamage C, Cai M, McDowell NG (2012) Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Nat Clim Change 3:292–297

    Google Scholar 

  122. Williams JW, Shuman B, Bartlein PJ (2009) Rapid responses of the prairie-forest ecotone to early Holocene aridity in mid-continental North America. Glob Planet Change 66:195–207

    Google Scholar 

  123. Wood EM, Pidgeon AM, Gratton C, Wilder TT (2011) Effects of oak barrens habitat management for Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides samuelis) on the avian community. Biol Cons 144:3117–3126

    Google Scholar 

  124. Woodall CW, Oswalt CM, Westfall JA, Perry CH, Nelson MD, Finley AO (2009) An indicator of tree migration in forests of the eastern United States. Ecol Manag 257:1434–1444

    Google Scholar 

  125. Woodall CW, Oswalt CM, Westfall JA, Perry CH, Nelson MD, Finley AO (2010) Selecting tree species for testing climate change migration hypotheses using forest inventory data. Ecol Manag 259(2010):778–785

    Google Scholar 

  126. Woolfenden GE, Fitzpatrick JW (1984) The Florida scrub-jay: demography of a cooperative-breeding bird. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ

    Google Scholar 

  127. Zar JH (2010) Biostatistical analysis, 5th edition. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

    Google Scholar 

  128. Zhu K, Woodall C, Clark J (2012) Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change. Glob Change Biol 18:1042–1052

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Special thanks to S. Brasfield, N. Bean, and E. Britzke for project assistance throughout this effort. M. Adams and G. Nowacki reviewed an earlier draft of this paper. Funding for this work was provided by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center’s Environmental Quality and Installation Research Program to Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.

Funding

This project was funded by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center’s Environmental Quality and Installation Research Program.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

WMF acquired project support. RHO and WMF co-designed the study. RHO was responsible for data analysis and interpretation. RHO and WMF co-wrote the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to W. Mark Ford.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Consent for Publication

Both authors, U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University support publication.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 3 Department of defense installations in the continental United States (Source: Military Installations, Ranges, and Training Areas (point locations and boundaries), Version 1.0, June 21, 2010, accessed 11/16/2012 from http://www.acq.osd.mil/ie/bei/opengov/installations_ranges.zip)
Table 4 General circulation models (GCM) available at Climatewizard.org that were used collectively to generate temperature and precipitation projections to formulate Holdridge Life Zones (Girvetz et al. 2009)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Odom, R.H., Ford, W.M. Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulting from Rapid Climate Change. Environmental Management 66, 564–589 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-020-01331-3

Download citation

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Forests
  • Holdridge life zones
  • Military installations
  • North America