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Accounting for Uncertainty and Time Lags in Equivalency Calculations for Offsetting in Aquatic Resources Management Programs

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Abstract

Biodiversity offset programs attempt to minimize unavoidable environmental impacts of anthropogenic activities by requiring offsetting measures in sufficient quantity to counterbalance losses due to the activity. Multipliers, or offsetting ratios, have been used to increase the amount of offsets to account for uncertainty but those ratios have generally been derived from theoretical or ad-hoc considerations. I analyzed uncertainty in the offsetting process in the context of offsetting for impacts to freshwater fisheries productivity. For aquatic habitats I demonstrate that an empirical risk-based approach for evaluating prediction uncertainty is feasible, and if data are available appropriate adjustments to offset requirements can be estimated. For two data-rich examples I estimate multipliers in the range of 1.5:1 – 2.5:1 are sufficient to account for the uncertainty in the prediction of gains and losses. For aquatic habitats adjustments for time delays in the delivery of offset benefits can also be calculated and are likely smaller than those for prediction uncertainty. However, the success of a biodiversity offsetting program will also depend on the management of the other components of risk not addressed by these adjustments.

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Notes

  1. Applications for Authorization under Paragraph 35(2)(b) of the Fisheries Act Regulations (SOR/2013-191)

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Acknowledgements

I thank Bronwyn Keatley, Keith Clarke, Karen Smokorowski, and Melisa Wong of Fisheries and Oceans Canada for their contributions to this project and participants of the Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat’s November 2014 meeting on equivalency metrics for offsetting for discussion. This work was supported by funds provided by the Ecosystem and Ocean Science Sector, Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

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  1. Fisheries and Oceans Canada and, School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A-1S6, Canada

    Michael J. Bradford

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Correspondence to Michael J. Bradford.

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Bradford, M.J. Accounting for Uncertainty and Time Lags in Equivalency Calculations for Offsetting in Aquatic Resources Management Programs. Environmental Management 60, 588–597 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-017-0892-6

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