Skip to main content

Planning for the Maintenance of Floristic Diversity in the Face of Land Cover and Climate Change

Abstract

Habitat loss and climate change are primary drivers of global biodiversity loss. Species will need to track changing environmental conditions through fragmented and transformed landscapes such as KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Landscape connectivity is an important tool for maintaining resilience to global change. We develop a coarse-grained connectivity map between protected areas to aid decision-making for implementing corridors to maintain floristic diversity in the face of global change. The spatial location of corridors was prioritised using a biological underpinning of floristic composition that incorporated high beta diversity regions, important plant areas, climate refugia, and aligned to major climatic gradients driving floristic pattern. We used Linkage Mapper to develop the connectivity network. The resistance layer was based on land-cover categories with natural areas discounted according to their contribution towards meeting the biological objectives. Three corridor maps were developed; a conservative option for meeting minimum corridor requirements, an optimal option for meeting a target amount of 50% of the landscape and an option including linkages in highly transformed areas. The importance of various protected areas and critical linkages in maintaining landscape connectivity are discussed, disconnected protected areas and pinch points identified where the loss of small areas could compromise landscape connectivity. This framework is suggested as a way to conserve floristic diversity into the future and is recommended as an approach for other global connectivity initiatives. A lack of implementation of corridors will lead to further habitat loss and fragmentation, resulting in further risk to plant diversity.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

References

  • Ackerly DD, Loarie SR, Cornwell WK, Weiss SB, Hamilton H, Branciforte R, Kraft NJB (2010) The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Divers Distrib 16:476–487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson MG, Ferree CE (2010) Conserving the stage: Climate change and the geophysical underpinnings of species diversity. PLoS ONE 5 (7):e11554

  • Anderson MG, Clark M, Sheldon AO (2014) Estimating climate resilience for conservation across geophysical settings. Conserv Biol 28:959–970

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bazelet CS, Samways MJ (2011) Relative importance of management vs. design for implementation of large-scale ecological networks. Landscape Ecol 26:341–353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beier P, Brost B (2010) The use of land facets to plan for climate change: conserving the arenas, not the actors. Conserv Biol 24:701–710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beier P, Spencer W, Baldwin RF, McRae BH (2011) Toward best practices for developing regional connectivity maps. Conserv Biol 25:879–892

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bowers MA, Harris LC (1994) A large-scale metapopulation model of interspecific competition and environmental change. Ecol Model 72:251–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carpenter S, Walker B, Anderies JM, Abel N (2001) From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what? Ecosystems 4:765–781

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CBD [Convention on Biological Diversity] (2011) Strategic plan for biodiversity 2011-2020 and the Aichi targets. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Available from https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets. Accessed 29 April 2016

  • Collingham YC, Huntley B (2000) Impacts of habitat fragmentation and patch size upon migration rates. Ecol Appl 10:131–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cousins SAO, Lavorel S, Davies I (2003) Modelling the effects of landscape pattern and grazing regimes on the persistence of plant species with high conservation value in grasslands in south-eastern Sweden. Landscape Ecol 18:315–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cowling RM, Pressey RL, Rouget M, Lombard AT (2003) A conservation plan for a global biodiversity hotspot—the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. Biol Conserv 112:191–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cumming GS (2011) Spatial resilience: integrating landscape ecology, resilience, and sustainability. Landscape Ecol 26:899–909

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cumming GS, Olsson P, Chapin III FS, Holling CS (2013) Resilience, experimentation, and scale mismatches in social-ecological landscapes. Landscape Ecol 28:1139–1150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC, Mace GM (2011) Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 332:53–58

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dellas E, Pattberg P (2013) Assessing the political feasibility of global options to reduce biodiversity loss. Int J Biodivers Sci Ecosyst Serv Manage 9:347–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife (2013) KwaZulu-Natal land cover 2011 v1 (clp_KZN_2011_LC_v1_grid_w31.zip). [GIS coverage]. Pietermaritzburg: Biodiversity Research and Assessment, Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife

  • Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife (2015) KZN Landform (Derived from modified 30m SRTM DEM). (landform_30mSRTMDEM_w31.zip. [GIS coverage]. Pietermaritzburg: Biodiversity Conservation Planning Division, Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife

  • Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife and GeoTerraImage (2013) 2011 KZN province land-cover mapping (from SPOT5 satellite imagery circa 2011): Data users report and metadata (version 1d). Pietermaritzburg: Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, unpublished report

  • Fahrig L (2003) Effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 34:487–515

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferrier S (2002) Mapping spatial pattern in biodiversity for regional conservation planning: where to from here? Syst Biol 51:331–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fitzpatrick MC, Sanders NJ, Normand S, Svenning J-C, Ferrier S, Gove AD, Dunn RR (2013) Environmental and historical imprints on beta diversity: insights from variation in rates of species turnover along gradients. P R Soc B 280:20131201. doi:10.1098/rspb.2013.1201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flather CH, Bevers M (2002) Patchy reaction-diffusion and population abundance: the relative importance of habitat amount and arrangement. Am Nat 159:40–56

    Google Scholar 

  • Fourie L, Rouget M, Lötter M (2015) Landscape connectivity of the grassland biome in Mpumalanga, South Africa. Austral Ecol 40:67–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freedman AH, Buermann W, Mitchard ETA, DeFries RS, Smith TB (2010) Human impacts flatten rainforest-savanna gradient and reduce adaptive diversity in a rainforest bird. PloS ONE 5(9):e13088. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0013088

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groves CR, Game ET, Anderson MG, Cross M, Enquist C, Ferdaña Z, Girvetz E, Gondor A, Hall KR, Higgins J, Marshall R, Popper K, Schill S, Shafer SL (2012) Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning. Biodivers Conserv 21:1651–1671

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hannah L, Midgley G, Andelman S, Araújo M, Hughes G, Martinez-Meyer E, Pearson R, Williams P (2007) Protected area needs in a changing climate. Front Ecol Environ 5:131–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harris LD, Scheck J (1991) From implications to applications: the dispersal corridor principle applied to the conservation of biological diversity. In: Saunders DA, Hobbs RJ (eds) Nature Conservation 2: the role of corridors. Surrey Beatty & Sons, Sydney, NSW, pp 189–220

    Google Scholar 

  • Heller NE, Zavaleta ES (2009) Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol Conserv 142:14–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holling CS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 4:1–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunter ML, Jacobson GL, Webb T (1988) Paleoecology and the coarse-filter approach to maintaining biological diversity. Conserv Biol 2:375–385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jewitt D (2014) KZN vegetation types: targets, statistics and conservation status (December 2014). Unpublished report, Biodiversity Research and Assessment, Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, Pietermaritzburg

  • Jewitt D, Erasmus BFN, Goodman PS, O’Connor TG, Hargrove WW, Maddalena DM, Witkowski ETF (2015a) Climate-induced change of environmentally defined floristic domains: a conservation based vulnerability framework. Appl Geogr 63:33–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jewitt D, Goodman PS, Erasmus BFN, O’Connor TG, Witkowski ETF (2015b) Systematic land-cover change in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Implications for biodiversity. S Afr J Sci 111(9/10):9. doi:10.17159/sajs.2015/20150019. 2015Art. #2015-0019pages

    Google Scholar 

  • Jewitt D, Goodman PS, O’Connor TG, Witkowski ETF (2015c) Floristic composition in relation to environmental gradients across KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Austral Ecol 40:287–299

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jewitt D, Goodman PS, O’Connor TG, Erasmus BFN, Witkowski EF (2016) Mapping landscape beta diversity of plants across KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, for aiding conservation planning. Biodivers Conserv 25:2641–2654

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones-Farrand DT, Fearer TM, Thogmartin WE, Thompson III FR, Nelson MD, Tirpak JM (2011) Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction. Ecol Appl 21:2269–2282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joppa LN, O’Connor B, Visconti P, Smith C, Geldmann J, Hoffmann M, Watson JEM, Butchart SHM, Virah-Sawmy M, Halpern BS, Ahmed SE, Balmford A, Sutherland WJ, Harfoot M, Hilton-Taylor C, Foden W, Di Minin E, Pagad S, Genovesi P, Hutton J, Burgess ND (2016) Filling in biodiversity threat gaps. Science 352:416–418. doi:10.1126/science.aaf3565

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kark S, van Rensburg BJ (2006) Ecotones: marginal or central areas of transition? Isr J Ecol Evol 52:29–53

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koen EL, Garroway CJ, Wilson PJ, Bowman J (2010) The effect of map boundary on estimates of landscape resistance to animal movement. PLoS ONE 5(7):e11785. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0011785

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laliberté E, Wells JA, DeClerck F, Metcalfe DJ, Catterall CP, Queiroz C, Aubin I, Bonser SP, Ding Y, Fraterrigo JM, McNamara S, Morgan JW, Sánchez Merlos D, Vesk PA, Mayfield MM (2010) Land-use intensification reduces functional redundancy and response diversity in plant communities. Ecol Lett 13:76–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lawler JJ (2009) Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning. Ann NY Acad Sci 1162:79–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Wood JT, McBurney L, MacGregor C, Youngentob K, Banks SC (2011) How to make a common species rare: a case against conservation complacency. Biol Conserv 144:1663–1672

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maciejewski K, Cumming GS (2016) Multi-scale network analysis shows scale-dependency of significance of individual protected areas for connectivity. Landscape Ecol 31:761–774

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Margules CR, Pressey RL (2000) Systematic conservation planning. Nature 405:243–253

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCune B, Grace JB (2002) Analysis of Ecological Communities. MjM Software Design, Gleneden Beach, OR

    Google Scholar 

  • McKnight MW, White PS, McDonald RI, Lamoreux JF, Sechrest W, Ridgely RS, Stuart SN (2007) Putting beta-diversity on the map: broad-scale congruence and coincidence in the extremes. PLoS Biol 5(10):e272. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0050272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McRae BH (2012a) Pinchpoint Mapper Connectivity Analysis Software. The Nature Conservancy, Seattle, WA, Available at: http://www.circuitscape.org/linkagemapper

    Google Scholar 

  • McRae BH (2012b) Centrality Mapper Connectivity Analysis Software. The Nature Conservancy, Seatlle, WA, Available at: http://www.circuitscape.org/linkagemapper

    Google Scholar 

  • McRae BH, Dickson BG, Keitt TH, Shah VB (2008) Using circuit theory to model connectivity in ecology, evolution, and conservation. Ecology 89(10):2712–2724

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McRae BH, Kavanagh DM (2011) Linkage Mapper Connectivity Analysis Software. The Nature Conservancy, Seattle, WA, Available at: http://www.circuitscape.org/linkagemapper

    Google Scholar 

  • McRae BH, Shah VB, Mohapatra TK (2013) Circuitscape 4 User Guide. The Nature Conservancy. Available at: http://www.circuitscape.org

  • Midgley GF, Hannah L, Millar D, Thuiller W, Booth A (2003) Developing regional and species-level assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region. Biol Conserv 112:87–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Monzón J, Moyer-Horner L, Palamar MB (2011) Climate change and species range dynamics in protected areas. BioScience 61:752–761

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nelson DR, Adger WN, Brown K (2007) Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework. Annu Rev Environ Resour 32:395–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Noss RF, Dobson AP, Baldwin R, Beier P, Davis CR, Dellasala DA, Francis J, Locke H, Nowak K, Lopez R, Reining C, Trombulak SC, Tabor G (2012) Bolder thinking for conservation. Conserv Biol 26:1–4. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01738.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nuñez TA, Lawler JJ, McRae BH, Pierce DJ, Krosby MB, Kavanagh DM, Singleton PH, Tewksbury JJ (2013) Connectivity planning to address climate change. Conserv Biol 27:407–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Connor TG (2005) Influence of land use on plant community composition and diversity in Highland Sourveld grassland in the southern Drakensberg, South Africa. J Appl Ecol 42:975–988

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Connor TG, Kuyler P (2009) Impact of land use on the biodiversity integrity of the moist sub-biome of the grassland biome, South Africa. J Environ Manage 90:384–395

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37:637–669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Partridge TC (1997) Evolution of landscapes. In: Cowling RM, Richardson DM, Pierce SM (eds) Vegetation of Southern Africa. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 5–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Pausas JG, Austin MP (2001) Patterns of plant species richness in relation to different environments: an appraisal. J Veg Sci 12:153–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2005) Long-distance plant dispersal and habitat fragmentation: identifying conservation targets for spatial landscape planning under climate change. Biol Conserv 123:389–401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pressey R, Watts ME, Barrett TW, Ridges ML (2008) The C-Plan conservation planning system: origins, applications, and possible futures. In: Moilanen A, Wilson KA, Possingham HP (eds) Spatial Conservation Prioritization: Quantitative methods and computational tools. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 211–234

    Google Scholar 

  • Pressey RL (2004) Conservation planning and biodiversity: assembling the best data for the job. Conserv Biol 18:1677–1681

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pressey RL, Watts M, Ridges M, Barrett T (2005) C-Plan conservation planning software. User Manual. NSW Department of Environment and Conservation

  • Sala OE, Chapin III FS, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloomfield J, Dirzo R, Huber-Sanwald E, Huenneke LF, Jackson RB, Kinzig A, Leemans R, Lodge DM, Mooney HA, Oesterheld M, Poff NL, Sykes MT, Walker BH, Walker M, Wall DH (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287:1770–1774

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saura S, Pascual-Hortal L (2007) A new habitat availability index to integrate connectivity in landscape conservation planning: comparison with existing indices and application to a case study. Landscape Urban Plan 83(2–3):91–103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schaffers AP, Raemakers IP, Sýkora KV, ter Braak CJF (2008) Arthropod assemblages are best predicted by plant species composition. Ecology 89:782–794

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scholes RJ, Biggs R (2005) A biodiversity intactness index. Nature 434:45–49

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott-Shaw CR (1999) Rare and threatened plants of KwaZulu-Natal and Neighbouring regions. KwaZulu-Natal Nature Conservation Service, Pietermaritzburg

    Google Scholar 

  • Simberloff D, Farr JA, Mehlman DW (1992) Movement corridors: conservation bargains or poor investments? Conserv Biol 6:493–504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) (2015) Red list of South African plants version 2015.1. http://redlist.sanbi.org Accessed 14 Jan 2016

  • Statistics South Africa (2015) Mid-year population estimates 2015. Statistical release P0302. Pretoria: Statistics South Africa. Available from www.statssa.gov.za

  • Tikka PM, Koski PS, Kivelä RA, Kuitunen MT (2000) Can grassland plant communities be preserved on road and railway verges? Appl Veg Sci 3:25–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams P, Hannah L, Andelman S, Midgley G, Araújo M, Hughes G, Manne L, Martinez-Meyer E, Pearson R (2005) Planning for climate change: identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae. Conserv Biol 19:1063–1074. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00080.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • With KA, Crist TO (1995) Critical thresholds in species’ responses to landscape structure. Ecology 76:2446–2459

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Worboys GL, Ament R, Day JC, Locke H, McClure M, Tabor G, Woodley S (2015) Consultation draft, Guidelines for Connectivity Conservation: Part One, Definition: Connectivity Conservation Area, IUCN, 28 Rue Mauverney, Gland, Switzerland

  • Zeller KA, McGarigal K, Whiteley AR (2012) Estimating landscape resistance to movement: a review. Landscape Ecol 27:777–797

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

DJ is supported by grant B8749.R01 from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, to the Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand. The South African Environmental Observation Network is thanked for the generous support of a study bursary. BFNE is supported by the Exxaro Company of South Africa. The following people are thanked for their assistance with this project, specifically for the conservation plan data: R. Scott-Shaw developed the plant species distribution models and species targets, B. Naidoo assisted with preparing the data for the systematic conservation plan, H. Snyman and B. Escott developed the planning unit layer, H. Snyman prepared the protected area and stewardship layers, and assisted with verifying the corridors. A. Gomez assisted with data extraction and preparation. T. Khomo, I. Mlonyeni, S. Manqele, A. Mnikathi and M. Sosibo assisted with cleaning the historical field’s layer. The botanists and ecologists who contributed plant data to the Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife database over many years are thanked for their contributions, without which a project such as this could never have been undertaken.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Debbie Jewitt.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Human of Animal Rights

This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors

Informed consent

This research did not involve human participants

Electronic supplementary material

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Jewitt, D., Goodman, P.S., Erasmus, B.F. et al. Planning for the Maintenance of Floristic Diversity in the Face of Land Cover and Climate Change. Environmental Management 59, 792–806 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-017-0829-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-017-0829-0

Keywords

  • Beta diversity
  • Climate refugia
  • Corridors
  • Ecological processes
  • Gradients
  • Protected areas