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Potential Effects of Climate Change on Florida’s Everglades

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Abstract

Restoration efforts in Florida’s Everglades focus on preserving and restoring this unique wetland’s natural landscape. Because most of the Everglades is a freshwater peatland, it requires surplus rainfall to remain a peatland. Restoration plans generally assume a stable climate, yet projections of altered climate over a 50-year time horizon suggest that this assumption may be inappropriate. Using a legacy regional hydrological model, we simulated combinations of a temperature rise of 1.5 °C, a ± 10 % change in rainfall, and a 0.46 m sea level rise relative to base conditions. The scenario of increased evapotranspiration and increased rainfall produced a slight increase in available water. In contrast, the more likely scenario of increased evapotranspiration and decreased rainfall lowered median water depths by 5–114 cm and shortened inundation duration periods by 5–45 %. Sea level rise increased stages and inundation duration in southern Everglades National Park. These ecologically significant decreases in water depths and inundation duration periods would greatly alter current ecosystems through severe droughts, peat loss and carbon emissions, wildfires, loss of the unique ridge and slough patterns, large shifts in plant and animal communities, and increased exotic species invasions. These results suggest using adaptive restoration planning, a method that explicitly incorporates large climatic and environmental uncertainties into long-term ecosystem restoration plans, structural design, and management. Anticipated water constraints necessitate alternative approaches to restoration, including maintaining critical landscapes and facilitating transitions in others. Accommodating these uncertainties may improve the likelihood of restoration success.

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Acknowledgments

This analysis was initiated by a Florida Atlantic University-CES, U.S. Geological Survey and Florida Sea Grant Sponsored workshop, “Predicting Ecological Changes in the Florida Everglades in a Future Climate Scenario,” held February 14–15, 2013, at the Florida Atlantic University Boca Raton Campus. Dr. Karl Havens of the Florida Sea Grant, University of Florida; G. Ronnie Best of Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science at the U.S. Geological Survey; and Dr. Leonard Berry, Director, CES, of Florida Atlantic University organized the workshop and coordinated the manuscripts submitted from this workshop. Modeling and staff time were supported by the South Florida Water Management District. We appreciate the comments and contributions by reviewers Dr. Fred Sklar, Dr. Thomas Dreschel, Dr. Ronnie Best, Dr. Nicholas Aumen, two anonymous reviewers, and the journal’s Editor-in-Chief, Rebecca Efroymson.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. South Florida Water Management District, 3301 Gun Club Rd., West Palm Beach, FL, 33406, USA

    M. Nungesser, C. Saunders, C. Coronado-Molina & J. Obeysekera

  2. The Institute for Regional Conservation, 100 East Linton Boulevard, Suite 302B, Delray Beach, FL, 33483, USA

    J. Johnson

  3. CMV and Co., 1514 15th Ave. N., Lake Worth, FL, 33460, USA

    C. McVoy

  4. Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Davie, FL, 33314, USA

    B. Benscoter

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  1. M. Nungesser
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  2. C. Saunders
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  3. C. Coronado-Molina
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  4. J. Obeysekera
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  5. J. Johnson
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  6. C. McVoy
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Correspondence to M. Nungesser.

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Nungesser, M., Saunders, C., Coronado-Molina, C. et al. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Florida’s Everglades. Environmental Management 55, 824–835 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-014-0417-5

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