Abstract
It is important to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida and to determine the resilience and robustness of greater Everglades restoration plans under future climate change. The current climate models, at both global and regional scales, are not ready to deliver specific climatic datasets for water resources investigations involving future plans and therefore a scenario based approach was adopted for this first study in restoration planning. We focused on the general implications of potential changes in future temperature and associated changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and sea levels at the regional boundary. From these, we developed a set of six climate and sea level scenarios, used them to simulate the hydrologic response of the greater Everglades region including agricultural, urban, and natural areas, and compared the results to those from a base run of current conditions. The scenarios included a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, ±10 % change in precipitation, and a 0.46 m (1.5 feet) increase in sea level for the 50-year planning horizon. The results suggested that, depending on the rainfall and temperature scenario, there would be significant changes in water budgets, ecosystem performance, and in water supply demands met. The increased sea level scenarios also show that the ground water levels would increase significantly with associated implications for flood protection in the urbanized areas of southeastern Florida.
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Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the support provided by Moysey Ostrovsky. We also appreciate the encouragement of the steering committee of the climate change and sea level rise workshops organized by the Florida Atlantic University Center for Environmental Studies. The committee encouraged us to conduct this analysis as a focus of discussion on the ecological impacts of climate change in south Florida. This work was conducted by the South Florida Water Management District.
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Obeysekera, J., Barnes, J. & Nungesser, M. Climate Sensitivity Runs and Regional Hydrologic Modeling for Predicting the Response of the Greater Florida Everglades Ecosystem to Climate Change. Environmental Management 55, 749–762 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-014-0315-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-014-0315-x