Advertisement

Environmental Management

, Volume 49, Issue 5, pp 968–979 | Cite as

Simulating Land-Cover Change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia

  • Jefferson FoxEmail author
  • John B. Vogler
  • Omer L. Sen
  • Thomas W. Giambelluca
  • Alan D. Ziegler
Article

Abstract

We used the conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE-s) model to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in Montane mainland southeast Asia (MMSEA), a region in the midst of transformation due to rapid intensification of agriculture and expansion of regional trade markets. Simulated changes affected approximately 10 % of the MMSEA landscape between 2001 and 2025 and 16 % between 2001 and 2050. Roughly 9 % of the current vegetation, which consists of native species of trees, shrubs, and grasses, is projected to be replaced by tree plantations, tea, and other evergreen shrubs during the 50 years period. Importantly, 4 % of this transition is expected to be due to the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), a tree plantation crop that may have important implications for local-to-regional scale hydrology because of its potentially high water consumption in the dry season.

Keywords

Land cover CLUE-s Land change modeling Rubber Southeast Asia 

References

  1. Bruun TB, De Neergaard A, Lawrence D, Ziegler AD (2009) Environmental consequences of the demise in swidden agriculture in SE Asia: soil nutrients and carbon stocks. Hum Ecol 37:375–388CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Castella J, Verburg PH (2007) Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam. Ecol Model 202:410–420CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Dickinson RE, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy JP (1993) Biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (bats) version 1e as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. In: Technical report, National Center for Atmospheric Research, BoulderGoogle Scholar
  4. Economic Intelligence Unit (2004a) Country profile 2004: Myanmar (Burma). The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, LondonGoogle Scholar
  5. Economic Intelligence Unit (2004b) Country profile 2004: Vietnam. The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, LondonGoogle Scholar
  6. Economic Intelligence Unit (2005a) Country profile 2005: Cambodia. The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, LondonGoogle Scholar
  7. Economic Intelligence Unit (2005b) Country profile 2005: China. The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, LondonGoogle Scholar
  8. Economic Intelligence Unit (2005c) Country profile 2005: Laos. The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, LondonGoogle Scholar
  9. Economic Intelligence Unit (2005d) Country profile 2005: Thailand. The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, LondonGoogle Scholar
  10. Engelsman W (2002) Simulating land-use changes in an urbanizing area in Malaysia: an application of the CLUE-s model in the Selangor river basin. Research thesis paper. Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, WageningenGoogle Scholar
  11. Fox J, Vogler J (2005) Land-use and land-cover change in Montane mainland southeast Asia. Environ Manage 36(3):394–403CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Fox J, McMahon D, Poffenberger M, Vogler J (2008) Land use and tenure change in Ratanakiri: 1989–2007. Community Forestry International, Phnom PenhGoogle Scholar
  13. Friedl MA, McIver DK, Hodges JCF, Zhang XY, Muchoney D, Strahler AH, Woodcock CE, Gopal S, Schneider A, Cooper A, Baccini A, Gao F, Schaaf C (2002) Global land cover mapping from MODIS: algorithms and early results. Remote Sens Environ 83(1–2):287–302CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Fujita Y, Phanvilay K (2008) Land and forest allocation in Lao people’s democratic republic: comparison of case studies from community-based natural resource management research. Soc Nat Res 21(2):120–133CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Giambelluca TW, Tran LT, Ziegler AD, Menard TP, Nullet MA (1996) Soil-vegetation-atmosphere processes: simulation and field measurement for deforested sites in northern Thailand. J Geophys Res 101:25867–25885CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Guardiola-Claramonte M, Troch PA, Ziegler AD, Giambelluca TW, Vogler JB, Nullet MA (2008) Local hydrologic effects of introducing non-native vegetation in a tropical catchment. Ecohydrology 1:13–22. doi: 10.1002/eco.3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Guardiola-Claramonte M, Troch PA, Ziegler AD, Giambelluca TW, Durcik M, Vogler JB, Nullet MA (2010) Modeling basin-scale hydrologic effects of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) in a tropical catchment. Ecohydrology 3(3):306–314CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Guo H, Padoch C, Coffey K, Aiguo C, Yongneng F (2002) Economic development, land use and biodiversity change in the tropical mountains of Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, southwest China. Environ Sci Policy 5:471–479CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Li HM, Aide TM, Ma YX, Liu XJ, Cao M (2007) Demand for rubber is causing the loss of high diversity rainforest in SW China. Biodivers Conserv 16:1731–1745CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Maekawa T (2002) Road link makes dream possible. ADB Rev 9–10Google Scholar
  21. Padoch C, Coffey K, Mertz O, Leisz S, Fox J, Wadley R (2007) The demise of swidden in southeast Asia? Local realities and regional ambiguities. Dan J Geogr 107(1):29–42Google Scholar
  22. Rerkasem K, Lawrence D, Padoch C, Schmidt-Vogt D, Ziegler AD (2009) Consequences of swidden transitions for crop and fallow biodiversity. Hum Ecol 37:347–360CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Rigg J (2006) Land, farming, livelihoods and poverty: rethinking the links in the rural south. World Dev 34(1):180–202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Rigg J, Nattapoolwat S (2001) Embracing the global in Thailand: activism and pragmatism in an era of de-agrarianisation. World Dev 29(6):945–960CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Schneider RR (1994) Government and the economy on the Amazon frontier. In: Latin America and the Caribbean technical department. World Bank, Washington D.CGoogle Scholar
  26. Sen OL, Bozkurt D, Fox J, Vogler JB, Giambelluca TW, Ziegler AD (2011a) Projected impacts of global warming on regional climate in southeast Asia. Clim Dyn (in review)Google Scholar
  27. Sen OL, Vogler JB, Ziegler AD, Fox J, Giambelluca TW (2011b) Climatic effects of anthropogenic changes in Montane mainland southeast Asia: land cover / land use change simulations. Clim Chang (in review)Google Scholar
  28. Sen OL, Wang L, Wang B (2004) Impact of Indochina deforestation on the East-Asian summer monsoon. J Climate 17:1366–1380Google Scholar
  29. Soepboer W (2001) CLUE-s: an application for Sibuyan island, the Philippines. Research thesis paper. Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, WageningenGoogle Scholar
  30. Sturgeon JC (2010) Governing minorities and development in Xishuangbanna, China: Akha and Dai rubbers farmers as entrepreneurs. Geoforum 42(2):318–328CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Sunderlin W, Huynh TB (2005) Poverty alleviation and forests in Vietnam. CIFOR, JakartaGoogle Scholar
  32. Thant M, Nair O (2002) Linking nations coast to coast. ADB Rev 14–16Google Scholar
  33. Thomas D, Ekasingh B, Ekasingh M, Lebel L, Ha HM, Ediger L, Thongmanivong S, Xu J, Sangchyoswat C, Nyberg Y (2008) Comparative assessment of resource and market access of the poor in upland zones of the greater Mekong region. World Agroforestry Center, Chiang MaiGoogle Scholar
  34. Thongmanivong S, Fujita Y, Fox J (2005) Resource use dynamics and land-cover change in Ang Nhai village and Phou Phanang national reserve forest, Lao PDR. Environ Manag 36(3):382–393CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. UNEP-WCMC (2005) World database on protected areas. http://www.wdpa.org/
  36. Veldkamp A, Fresco L (1996) CLUE-CR: an integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica. Ecol Model 91:231–248CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Veldkamp A, Fresco L (1997a) Exploring land use scenarios: an alternative approach based on actual land use. Agric Syst 55:1–17CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Veldkamp A, Fresco L (1997b) Reconstructing land use drivers and their spatial scale dependence for Costa Rica (1973 and 1984). Agric Syst 55:19–43CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Verburg PH (2006) Conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE) model. In: Geist H (ed) Our earth’s changing land: an encyclopedia of land-use and land-cover change, vol 1(A–K). Greenwood Press, Westport, pp 144–146Google Scholar
  40. Verburg PH, Veldkamp A (2004) Projecting land use transitions at forest fringes in the Philippines at two spatial scales. Landsc Ecol 19:77–98CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Verburg PH, de Koning GHJ, Kok K, Veldkamp TA, Bouma J (1999a) A spatial allocation procedure for the modeling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use. Ecol Model 116:45–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Verburg PH, Veldkamp A, Fresco LO (1999b) Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China. Appl Geogr 19:211–233CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Verburg PH, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A, Limpiada R, Espaldon V, Mastura SSA (2002) Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-s model. Environ Manag 30(3):391–405CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Verburg PH, de Groot WT, Veldkamp A (2003) Methodology for multi-scale land-use change modelling: concepts and challenges. In: Dolman AJ, Verhagen A, Rovers CA (eds) Global environmental change and land use. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston/London, pp 17–51Google Scholar
  45. Verburg PH, Schulp CJE, Witte N, Veldkamp A (2006) Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:39–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Wassenaar T, Gerber P, Verburg PH, Rosales M, Ibrahim M, Steinfeld H (2007) Projecting land use changes in the neotropics: the geography of pasture forest expansion. Glob Environ Change 17:86–104CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Willemen L (2002) Modelling of land-cover changes with CLUE-s in Bac Kan province, Vietnam. Research thesis paper. Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, WageningenGoogle Scholar
  48. Xu J (2006) The political, social and ecological transformation of a landscape: the case of rubber in Xishuangbanna, China. Mt Res Dev 26(3):254–262CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Xu J, Fox J, Zhang P, Fu Y, Yang L, Qian J, Leisz S, Vogler J (2005) Land-use/land-cover change and farmer vulnerability in Xishuangbanna. Environ Manag 36(3):404–413CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Ziegler AD, Bruun TB, Guardiola-Claramonte M, Giambelluca TW, Lawrence D, Lam Nguyen Thanh (2009a) Environmental consequences of the demise in swidden agriculture in SE Asia: hydrology and geomorphology. Hum Ecol 37:361–373CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Ziegler AD, Fox JM, Xu J (2009b) The rubber juggernaut. Science 324:1024–1025CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Ziegler AD, Fox JM, Webb EL, Padoch C, Leisz S, Cramb RA, Mertz O, Bruun TT, Vien TD (2011) Rapid land use changes and the role of swiddening in SE Asia. Conserv Biol 25:846–848CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jefferson Fox
    • 1
    Email author
  • John B. Vogler
    • 2
  • Omer L. Sen
    • 3
  • Thomas W. Giambelluca
    • 4
  • Alan D. Ziegler
    • 5
  1. 1.East–West CenterHonoluluUSA
  2. 2.Geography and Earth SciencesUniversity of North CarolinaCharlotteUSA
  3. 3.Eurasia Institute of Earth SciencesIstanbul Technical UniversityIstanbulTurkey
  4. 4.Department of GeographyUniversity of HawaiiManoaUSA
  5. 5.Department of GeographyNational University SingaporeSingaporeSingapore

Personalised recommendations