Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

  • Published:
Environmental Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households’ income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adams WM, Aveling R, Brockington D, Dickson B, Elliott J, Hutton J, Roe D, Vira B, Wolmer W (2004) Biodiversity conservation and the eradication of poverty. Science 306:1146–1149

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Alexandratos N (2005) Countries with rapid population growth and resource constraints: issues of food, agriculture, and development. Population and Development Review 31:237–258

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amsalu A, de Graaff J (2006) Farmers’ views of soil erosion problems and their conservation knowledge at Beressa watershed, Central highlands of Ethiopia. Agriculture and Human Values 23:99–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Argaw M (2005) Forest conversion, soil degradation, farmers’ perception nexus: implications for sustainable land use in the south-west of Ethiopia. PhD Thesis, University of Bonn

  • Bishaw B (2001) Deforestation and land degradation in the Ethiopian highlands: a strategy for physical recovery. Northeast African Studies 8:7–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bogale A, Taeb M, Endo M (2006) Land ownership and conflicts over the use of resources: implication for household vulnerability in eastern Ethiopia. Ecological Economics 58:134–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell BM, Sayer J, Cowling R, Kassa H, Knight A, Sandker M, Suwarno A (2008) The role of participatory modelling in landscape approaches to reconcile conservation and development, IUCN and CIFOR

  • Carr DL, Suter L, Barbieri A (2005) Population dynamics and tropical deforestation: state of the debate and conceptual challenges. Population & Environment 27:89–113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan K, Pringle R, Ranganathan J, Boggs C, Chan Y, Ehrlich P, Haff P, Heller N, Al-Khafaji K, Macmynowski DP (2007) When agendas collide: human welfare and biological conservation. Conservation Biology 21:59–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costanza R, Voinov A (2001) Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA: part III. Ecological Modelling 143:1–7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crewett W, Bogale A, Korf B (2008) Land tenure in Ethiopia: continuity and change, shifting rulers, and the quest for state control. CAPRi Working Paper 91. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington

  • Deininger K, Ayalew D, Holden S, Zevenbergen J (2008) Rural land certification in Ethiopia: process, initial impact, and implications for other African countries. World Development 36:1786–1812

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dessie G, Christiansson C (2008) Forest decline and its causes in the South-Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: human impact over a one hundred year perspective. Ambio 37:263–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doerr HM (1996) Stella ten years later: a review of the literature. International Journal of Computers for Mathematical Learning 1:201–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ellis F (2000) Rural livelihoods and diversity in developing countries. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Ellis F, Allison E (2004) Livelihood diversification and natural resource access. Livelihood Support Programme Working Paper 9. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

  • Ezra M (2001) Ecological degradation, rural poverty, and migration in Ethiopia: a contextual analysis. Policy Research Division Working Paper no. 149. Population Council, New York

  • Feoli E, Vuerich LG, Zerihun W (2002) Evaluation of environmental degradation in northern Ethiopia using GIS to integrate vegetation, geomorphological, erosion and socio-economic factors. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 91:313–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garedew E, Sandewall M, Söderberg U, Campbell B (2009) Land-use and Land-cover dynamics in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Environmental Management 44:683–694

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grau HR, Gasparri NI, Aidew TM (2008) Balancing food production and nature conservation in the Neotropical dry forests of northern Argentina. Global Change Biology 14:985–997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haile S (2004) Population, development, and environment in Ethiopia. ECSP Report Issue 10

  • Hans H, Kebede T, Gete Z (2005) The implications of changes in population, land use, and land management for surface runoff in the upper Nile Basin area of Ethiopia. Mountain Research and Development 25:147–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartemink AE, Veldkamp T, Bai Z (2008) Land cover change and soil fertility decline in tropical regions. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry 32:195–213

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Helldén U (2008) A coupled human-environment model for desertification simulation and impact studies. Global and Planetary Change 64:158–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • High Performance Systems Inc (1996) STELLA software technical documentation

  • Hutton J, Adams WM, Murombedzi JC (2005) Back to the barriers? Changing narratives in biodiversity conservation. Forum for Development Studies 2:341–370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jayne TS, Yamano T, Weber MT, Tschirley D, Benfica R, Chapoto A, Zulu B (2003) Smallholder income and land distribution in Africa: implications for poverty reduction strategies. Food Policy 28:253–275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jha S, Bawa KS (2006) Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. Conservation Biology 20:906–912

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kassa H, Campbell B, Sandewall M, Kebede M, Tesfaye Y, Dessie G, Seifu A, Tadesse M, Garedew E, Sandewall K (2009) Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo forest, Central Ethiopia. Journal of Environmental Management 90:1004–1013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirwan BE, McMillan M (2007) Food aid and poverty. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89:1152–1160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lamb D, Erskine PD, Parrotta JA (2005) Restoration of degraded tropicat forest landscapes. Science 310:1628–1632

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lambin EF, Geist HJ, Lepers E (2003) Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in Tropical regions. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28:205–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahmud Y, Mekonnen A, Kassie M, Pender J (2005) Cost of Land Degradation in Ethiopia: a critical review of past studies, EEPFE/EFPRI

  • Mengistu T, Teketay D, Hultén H, Yemshaw Y (2005) The role of communities in closed area management in Ethiopia. Mountain Research and Development 25:44–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MoFED (2007) Ethiopia: building on progress: a plan for accelerated and sustained development to end poverty (PASDEP). Annual Progress Report 2006/07, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED), Addis Ababa

  • Nyssen J, Poesen J, Moeyersons J, Deckers J, Haile M, Lang A (2004) Human impact on the environment in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands—a state of the art. Earth-Science Reviews 64:273–320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nyssen J, Poesen J, Deckers J (2009) Land degradation and soil and water conservation in tropical highlands. Soil & Tillage Research 103:197–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robbins P, McSweeney K, Waite T, Rice J (2006) Even conservation rules are made to be broken: implementation for biodiversity. Environmental Management 37:162–169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romero C, Andrade G (2004) Internation conservation organizations and the fate of local tropical conservation initiatives. Conservation Biology 18:578–580

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sanderson S, Redford K (2003) Contested relationships between biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation. Oryx 37:389–390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sandewall M, Nilsson NE (2001) The area production model: a tool and concept for sustainable land-use and forest-resource management. Journal of Environmental Management 62:415–427

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sayer JA, Campbell BM (2004) The science of sustainable development: local livelihoods and the global environment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Sayer J, Campbell B, Petheram L, Aldrich M, Perez M, Endamana D, Dongmo Z-L, Defo L, Mariki S, Doggart N, Burgess N (2007) Assessing environment and development outcomes in conservation landscapes. Biodiversity and Conservation 16:2677–2694

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 89:153–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh S (2008) Social challenges to integrating conservation and development: the case of wildlife use in Laos. Society and Natural resources 21:952–955

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stéphenne N, Lambin EF (2001) A dynamic simulation model of land-use changes in Sudano-sahelian countries of Africa (SALU). Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 85:145–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sunderland T, Ehringhaus C, Campbell B (2008) Conservation and development in tropical forest landscapes: a time to face the trade-offs? Environmental Conservation 34:276–279

    Google Scholar 

  • Taddese G (2001) Land degradation: a challenge to Ethiopia. Environmental Management 27:815–824

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tegenu T (2003) Socio-economic and environmental effects of age transition in Ethiopia, 1950-2000. Institute for Future Studies Stockholm. Paper presented at the first international conference on the Ethiopian economy, Addis Ababa

  • Teketay D (2001) Deforestation, wood famine, and environmental degradation in Ethiopia’s highland ecosystems: urgent need for action. Northeast African Studies 8:53–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNFCCC (2007) Climate change: impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in developing countries United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Bonn, Germany.

  • United Nations Population Division (2009) Population division of the department of economic and social affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. http://esa.un.org/unpp. Accessed 13 August 2009.

  • Verdoodt A, Mureithi SM, Ye L, Ranst EV (2009) Chronosequence analysis of two enclosure management strategies in degraded rangeland of semi-arid Kenya. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 129:332–339

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to Professor Bruce M. Campbell and Dr. Neil Collier for their helpful professional support and Neil Cory editing the paper. We would like to thank the farmers and field-guides for their valuable participation and time. Special thanks go to Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resources and the Swedish International Development Agency (Sida) for financing the study.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umea, 901-83, Sweden

    Efrem Garedew, Mats Sandewall & Ulf Soderberg

  2. School of Forestry, Wondo Genet College of Forestry & Natural Resources, Hawasa University, Shashemene, P.O. Box 128, Ethiopia

    Efrem Garedew

Authors
  1. Efrem Garedew
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mats Sandewall
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ulf Soderberg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Efrem Garedew.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Garedew, E., Sandewall, M. & Soderberg, U. A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Environmental Management 49, 151–162 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-011-9783-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-011-9783-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation