Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Sustainability Assessment of Future Scenarios: Methodology and Application to Mountain Areas of Europe

  • Published:
Environmental Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

BioScene (scenarios for reconciling biodiversity conservation with declining agriculture use in mountain areas in Europe) was a three-year project (2002–2005) funded by the European Union’s Fifth Framework Programme, and aimed to investigate the implications of agricultural restructuring and decline for biodiversity conservation in the mountain areas of Europe.

The research took a case study approach to the analysis of the biodiversity processes and outcomes of different scenarios of agri-environmental change in six countries (France, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) covering the major biogeographical regions of Europe. The project was coordinated by Imperial College London, and each study area had a multidisciplinary team including ecologists and social and economic experts, which sought a comprehensive understanding of the drivers for change and their implications for sustainability.

A key component was the sustainability assessment (SA) of the alternative scenarios. This article discusses the development and application of the SA methodology developed for BioScene. While the methodology was objectives-led, it was also strongly grounded in baseline ecological and socio-economic data. This article also describes the engagement of stakeholder panels in each study area and the use of causal chain analysis for understanding the likely implications for land use and biodiversity of strategic drivers of change under alternative scenarios for agriculture and rural policy and for biodiversity management. Finally, this article draws conclusions for the application of SA more widely, its use with scenarios, and the benefits of stakeholder engagement in the SA process.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abaza H, Hamwey R (2001) Integrated assessment as a tool for achieving sustainable trade policies, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 21:481–510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arbter K (2005) Sustainable Policies and Legislation: International Survey and Development of a Procedure for Austria, Executive Summary, Report for the Austrian Federal Ministry for Agriculture and Forestry, Environment and Water Management, Vienna, April 2005; available at http://www.arbter.at/pdf/Sustainable_policies_legislation_summary.pdf (accessed 25.7.2006)

  • Audsley E, Pearn KR, Simota C, Cojacaru G, Kousidou E, Rounsevell MDA, Trinka M, Alexandrov V (2006) What can scenario modeling tell us about future European scale land use, and what not?, Environmental Science and Policy 9:148–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baumann H, Cowell SJ (1999) An Evaluative Framework for Environmental Management Approaches. Greener Management International, 26:109–122

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker B (1997) Sustainability Assessment: A Review of Values, Concepts, and Methodological Approaches - Issues in Agriculture 10, Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research (CGIAR), The World Bank, http://www.worldbank.org/html/cgiar/publications/issues/issues10.pdf (07/09/05)

  • Burström F (1999) Material Accounting and Enivronmental Management in Municipalities, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management: 1(3):297–327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buselich K (2002) An outline of current thinking on sustainability assessment - A background paper prepared for the Western Australian State Sustainability Strategy, Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy, Murdoch University, Australia, August 2002, http://www.sustainability.dpc.wa.gov.au/docs/BGPapers/KathrynBuselich.pdf (07/09/05)

  • CAG Consultants and Centre for City and Regional Studies. (2003) Briefing on Selected Sustainable Development Tools - Final report to the English Regions Network, June 2003

  • Cash D, Clark W (2001) “From Science to Policy: Assessing the Assessment Process”, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Working Paper

  • CEC (Commission of the European Communities). (1998) Communication of the European Commission to the Council and to the Parliament on a European Community Biodiversity Strategy, Com (98) 42, available at http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/docum/9842sm.htm

  • CEC (Commission of the European Communities). (2001) Directive 2001/42/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Assessment of the Effects of Certain Plans and Programmes on the Environment, Luxembourg, 27 June 2001, available at http://europa.eu.int/eur-lex/pri/en/oj/dat/2001/l_197/l_19720010721en00300037.pdf (24/4/06)

  • CEC (Commission of the European Communities). (2002) Communication from the Commissions on Impact Assessment, COM2002 276 final (5.6.2002) Commission of the European Communities, Brussels

  • EC (European Council). (2005) Council Regulation (EC) No 1698/2005 of 20 September 2005 on support for rural development by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), available at http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/rur/index_en.htm (24/4/06)

  • Dalal-Clayton B, Sadler B (2005) Sustainability Appraisal - A Review of International Experience and Practice, Earthscan Publications, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Devuyst D (1999) Sustainability Assessment: The Approach of a Methodological Framework, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management 1(4):459–487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emilsson S, Tyskeng S, Carlsson A (2004) Potential Benefits of Combining Environmental Management Tools in a Local Authority Context, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management, 6(6):131–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ESPON. (2004) The Territorial Impact of CAP and Rural Development Policy, ESPON Project 2.1.3, Final Report, August 2004, www.espon.lu/online/documentation/projects/policy_impact/1861/fr-2.1.3.pdf (20/9/04)

  • George C, Nafti R, Curran J (2001) Capacity building for trade impact assessment: lessons from the development of environmental impact assessment, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 194:311–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gibson RB, Hassan S, Holtz S, Tansey J Whitelaw G (2005) Sustainability Assessment: Criteria, Processes and Applications, Earthscan Publications, London. pp240

    Google Scholar 

  • Gibson RB (2006) Beyond the Pillars: Sustainability Assessment as a Framework for Effective Integration of Social, Economic and Ecological Consideration in Significant Decision-Making, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management, 8(3):259–280

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hacking T, Guthrie P (2006) Sustainable Developmetn objectives in Impact Assessment: Why are They Needed and where Do They Come From? Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management 8(3):341–371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harridge C, MacTavish A, McAlister I, Nicholson S (2002) Guide to Sustainability Appraisal, Town and Country Planning Association (TCPA) Tomorrow Series, Paper 12, TCPA, London, http://www.entecuk.com/downloads/sustain.pdf (11/09/05)

  • Hawkins V, Selman P (2002) Landscape scale planning: exploring alternative land use scenarios, Landscape and Urban Planning 60:211–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IAIA (International Association for Impact Assessment). (1999) Principles of Environmental Impact Assessment Best Practice, January 1999, available at http://www.iaia.org/Members/Publications/Guidelines_Principles/Principles%20of%20IA.PDF (accessed 24 March 2006)

  • Jacob K, Hertin J, Bartolomeo M, Volkery A, Cirillo M, Wilkinson D (2004) Ex-ante sustainability appraisal of national-level policies: A comparative study of assessment practice in seven countries, Paper presented at the 2004 Berlin Conference “Greening of Policies? Interlinkages and Policy Integration”, http://www.fu-berlin.de/ffu/akumwelt/bc2004/download/jacob_hertin_et_al.pdf (10/09/05)

  • James P, Donaldson S (2001) Action for Sustainability: Northwest England’s Tools for Regional Strategic Sustainability Appraisal, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management 3(3):413–430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins B, Annandale D, Morrison-Saunders A (2003) The evolution of sustainability assessment strategy for Western Australia, Environmental and Planning Law Journal, 20(1):56–65

    Google Scholar 

  • Keough HL, Blahna DJ (2006) Achieving Integrative, Collaborative Ecosystem Management, Conservation Biology 20(5):1373–1382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee N, Kirkpatrick C (2001) Methodologies for Sustainability Impact Assessments of Proposals for New Trade Agreements, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management 3(3):395–412

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marsden S, De Mulder J (2005) Strategic Environmental Assessment and Sustainability in Europe - How Bright is the Future? Review of European Community & International Environmental Law (RECIEL) 14(1):50–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marty P, Guignier C, Talhouk O, Caplat P, Lepart J (2005) BioScene French Study Area-Causse Méjan: Sustainability Report, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Montpellier, France (CEFE)

  • Meppem T, Gill R (1998) Planning for sustainability as a learning concept. Ecological Economics 26:121–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchley J (2005) Scenarios for reconciling biodiversity conservation with declining agricultural use in the mountains of Europe, Final Report of Contract No. EVK2 2002 00167, Project funded by the European Community FP5 EESD Programme 1998–2002

  • Mitchley J, Price MF, Tzanopoulos J (2006) Integrated Futures for Europe’s Mountain Regions: reconciling Biodiversity Conservation and Human Livelihoods, Journal of Mountain Science 3(4):276–286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nassauer JI, Corry RC (2004) Using normative scenarios in landscape ecology, Landscape Ecology 19:343–356

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Noble B (2002) The Canadian experience with SEA and sustainability, Environmental Impact Assessment Review 22:3–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ODPM. 2005a. A Practical Guide to the Strategic Environmental Assessment Directive, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, London

  • ODPM. 2005b. Sustainability Appraisal of Regional Spatial Strategies and Local Development Documents: Guidance for Regional Planning Bodies and Local Planning Authorities, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, London

  • Olsson GA (2005) From waste of time to useful tool: sustainability assessment from an ecologist’s view, paper give to Biodiversity conservation and sustainable development in mountain areas of Europe: The challenge of interdisciplinary research, Ioannina, Greece, 20–24 September 2005

  • Owens S, Cowell R (2002) Land and Limits: Interpreting Sustainability in the Planning Process, Routledge, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Partidário MR (2000) Elements of an SEA framework - improving the added-value of SEA, Environmental Impact Assessment Review 20:647–663

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Partidário MR, Sheate W, Bina O, Byron H (submitted to Environmental Management) Sustainability Assessment for agriculture scenarios in Europe’s mountain areas: lessons from six case studies

  • Penker M, Wyrtzens HK (2005) Scenarios for the Austrian food chain in 2020 and its landscape impacts, Landscape and Urban Planning 71:175–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson GD, Cumming GS, Carpenter SR (2003) Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world, Conservation Biology 17:358–366

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pope J, Annandale D, Morrison-Saunders A (2004) Conceptualising sustainability assessment, Environmental Impact Assessment Review 24:595–616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rønningen K, Bjørn Egil Flø, Gunilla A. Olsson, Sølvi When, and Susanne K. Hanssen. (2005) Norwegian Study Area: Draft Sustainability Report, Centre for Rural Research, and Institute for Biology, NTNU, Norway

  • RCEP (Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution). (2002) 23rd Report on Environmental Planning, Cm 5459, The Stationery Office, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Scholtz RW, Lang, D, Wiek A, Walter A, Stauffacher M (2005) Transdisciplinary Case Studies as a Means of Sustainability Learning – Historical Framework and Theory, in Wiek,A., Walter, Lang D and Scholtz RW., Proceedings from Transdisciplinary Case Study Research for Sustainable Development, Symposium held at the 11th International Sustainable Development Research Conference, June 6–8, 2005 Finlandia Hall, Helsinki, Finland

  • Scholtz RW, Lang D Wiek A Walter A, Stauffacher M (2006) Transdisciplinary case studies as a means of sustainability learning: Historical framework and theory. International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education 7(3):226–251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schramm WE (2000) Evaluating trade agreements for environmental impacts: a review and analysis. In: Partidario MP, Clark R (Eds.) Perspectives on Strategic Environmental Assessment, Lewis Publishers, London. pp 91–112

    Google Scholar 

  • Scrase JI Sheate WR (2002) Integration and Integrated Approaches to Assessment: What Do They Mean for the Environment? Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning 4(4):275–294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheate WR, Dagg S, Richardson J, Aschemann R, Palerm J and Steen U (2001) SEA and Integration of the Environment into Strategic Decision-Making (3 Volumes), Final Report to the European Commission, DG XI, Contract No. B4-3040/99/136634/MAR/B4 available at http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/environment/eia/sea-support.htm#int, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, 438pp

  • Sheate WR (2002) Conference report: Workshop on Linking Environmental Assessment and Management Tools, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management, 4(4):465–474

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheate WR, Dagg S, Richardson J, Aschemann R, Palerm J Steen U (2003) Integrating the Environment into Strategic Decision-Making: Conceptualizing Policy SEA, European Environment, 13(1):1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheate WR (2005) SEA: Challenges, Perspectives and Potential, key note paper given to CIWEM conference on SEA: Water and Planning, 11 May 2005, SOAS, London

  • Sheate WR, Kiely A (2007), Causal chain analysis: making the link, The Environmentalist (magazine of the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment, UK) October 2007, Issue 51, pp21–23

  • Short M, Jones C, Carter J, Baker M, Wood CM (2004) Current practice in the strategic environmental assessment of development plans in England, Regional Studies 38:177–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith SP, Sheate WR (2001a) Sustainability appraisal of English regional plans: incorporating the requirements of the EU Strategic Environmental Assessment Directive, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal 19(4):263–276

  • Smith SP, Sheate WR (2001b) Sustainability appraisals of regional planning guidance and regional economic strategies in England: an Assessment, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 44(5):735–755

    Google Scholar 

  • Soliva R (2005) BioScene Sustainability Leaflet Consultation Feedback, Switzerland, November 2005

  • Sorensen J (1971) A framework for the identification and control of resource degradation and conflict in the multiple use of the coastal zone. Dept. of Landscape Architecture, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Therivel R, Walsh R (2006) The strategic environmental assessment directive in the UK: 1 year onwards, Environmental Impact Assessment Review (in press, available online 5 June 2006)

  • UNECE. (2003) Protocol on Strategic Environmental Assessment to the Convention on the Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context, UNECE, Kiev, http://www.unece.org/env/eia/sea/_protocol.htm

  • Verburg P, Schulp CJE, Witter N, Veldkamp A (2006) Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114:39–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van der Vorst R, Grafé-Buckens A, Sheate WR (1999) A Systemic Framework for Environmental Decision-Making, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management 1(1):1–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westhoek HJ, van den Berg M, Bakkes JA (2006) Scenario development to explore the future of Europe’s rural areas, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114:7–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wiek A, Binder C (2005) Solution spaces for decision-making – a sustainability assessment tool for city-regions. Environmental Impact Assessment Review 25(6):589–608

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wood C (2003) Rose-Hulman Award Acceptance. In Building Capacity for Impact Assessment, acceptance speech at the plenary session of 20/6/03 of the 23rd Annual Meeting of the International Association for Impact Assessment, 14–20 June 2003, Marrakech, Morocco

  • Zerbe N, Dedeurwaerdere T (2003) Sustainability Impact Assessment – Policy Brief Paper, Based on the conclusions of the SUSTRA seminar on “Sustainability Impact Assessment” 26–27 March 2003, Center for Philosophy of Law (CPDR), Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

Download references

Acknowledgments

The BioScene research project was funded under the EU Fifth Framework Programme: Energy, Environment, and Sustainable Development, Project number: EVK2-2001-00354 (2002–2005). The authors acknowledge with thanks the contribution by the BioScene partners in helping to deliver the SA process.

Previous versions of this paper were presented at the 11th Annual International Sustainable Development Research Conference, Helsinki, Finland June 6–8, 2005, Transdisciplinary Case Study Research Symposium, and at International Experience and Perspectives in SEA: A Global Conference on Strategic Environmental Assessment, September 26–30, 2005, Prague, Czech Republic, International Association for Impact Assessment.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Helen Byron

    Present address: International Site Casework Officer, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Sandy, United Kingdom

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, London, United Kingdom

    William R. Sheate & Suzan Dagg

  2. Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Arquitectura, Instituto Superior Técnico, Avenue Rovisco Pais, 1049-001, LISBOA, Portugal

    Maria Rosário do Partidário & Olivia Bina

  3. Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, London, United Kingdom

    Helen Byron

Authors
  1. William R. Sheate
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Maria Rosário do Partidário
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Helen Byron
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Olivia Bina
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Suzan Dagg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to William R. Sheate.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Sheate, W.R., Partidário, M.R.d., Byron, H. et al. Sustainability Assessment of Future Scenarios: Methodology and Application to Mountain Areas of Europe. Environmental Management 41, 282–299 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-007-9051-9

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-007-9051-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation