Environmental Management

, Volume 40, Issue 6, pp 944–957 | Cite as

Scenarios of Future Climate and Land-Management Effects on Carbon Stocks in Northern Patagonian Shrublands

  • Analia Carrera
  • Jorge Ares
  • Juan Labraga
  • Stephanie Thurner
  • Mónica Bertiller


We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m−2). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%.


Carbon sequestration CENTURY model Climate change MODIS-Terra Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Semiarid land 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Analia Carrera
    • 1
  • Jorge Ares
    • 1
  • Juan Labraga
    • 2
  • Stephanie Thurner
    • 3
  • Mónica Bertiller
    • 1
  1. 1.Centro Nacional PatagónicoPuerto MadrynArgentina
  2. 2.Centro Nacional PatagónicoPuerto MadrynArgentina
  3. 3.Technic University of MünichFreising-WeihenstephanGermany

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