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Pitfalls of Applying Adaptive Management to a Wolf Population in Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario

Environmental Management volume 37, pages 451–460 (2006)Cite this article

Abstract

We examined adaptive management (AM), applied as a science with testable and falsifiable hypothesis, in the context of a large carnivore population, specifically to wolf (Canis lupus lycaon) management in Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario, Canada. Evidence of a population decline was based upon 12 years of data on 137 different radio-collared wolves. Because human killing accounted for an average of 66% of deaths, and most killing occurred adjacent to the park, a management prescription of complete protection for wolves around the park for 30 months was initiated in January 2001. We evaluated the probability of being able to test the null hypothesis, that protecting wolves adjacent to the park for 30 months would not result in a positive population response. Using preceding variances in population change, yearling recruitment, and mortality rates, we conducted this evaluation in two ways, the former involving a power analysis, the latter involving modeling. Both approaches showed the falsifiability of the hypothesis to be low. The reason, inherent in the application of AM to issues of population biology, especially of large carnivores, was stochasticity of the ecological system and time constraints of the human system. We discuss the political background that led up to the management prescription, and ways to avoid misapplication of a scientific approach to AM in such situations. For the latter, the merit of adjusting the relative probability levels of making Type I or Type II errors are discussed, along with recommendations that in the interests of conservation, avoiding a Type II error holds precedence.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge World Wildlife Fund Canada as the principal funding agency, and private donors. The National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) provided us with grants in the early years, and the Friends of Algonquin Park throughout. Student support in most summers was provided by grants from the Environmental Youth Corp program of the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. The MNR granted research permits. Graduate students whose work contributed to the population data are Graham Forbes, Joy Black (Cook), and John Pisapio. We acknowledge many undergraduate assistants, pilots of Pem Air, and technical support at the Universities of Waterloo and Guelph.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Planning, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada

    John B. Theberge

  2. Mary T. Theberge, RR#2, Site 25, Compartment 82, Oliver, British Columbia, V0H 1T0, Canada

    Mary T. Theberge

  3. School of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan, 49931, USA

    John A. Vucetich

  4. Faculty of Environmental Design, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, T2N 1N4, Canada

    Paul C. Paquet

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  1. John B. Theberge
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  2. Mary T. Theberge
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Correspondence to John B. Theberge.

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Theberge, J.B., Theberge, M.T., Vucetich, J.A. et al. Pitfalls of Applying Adaptive Management to a Wolf Population in Algonquin Provincial Park, Ontario. Environmental Management 37, 451–460 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-004-1041-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-004-1041-6

Keywords

  • Adaptive management
  • Wolf
  • Park
  • Scientific method

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