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A nomogram for predicting pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasm and serous cystic neoplasm

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Abdominal Radiology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Objectives

To develop and validate a nomogram for the preoperative prediction of pancreatic serous cystic neoplasm (SCN) and mucinous cystic neoplasm (MCN) based on multidetector computed tomography (MDCT).

Materials and methods

In this retrospective study, the data of 227 patients with SCN and MCN were analyzed. Each patient underwent MDCT and surgical resection. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed using a training set consisting of 129 patients with SCN and 38 patients with MCN who were admitted between October 2012 and April 2019. The model was validated in 60 consecutive patients, 44 of whom had SCN and 16 of whom had MCN, admitted between May 2019 and April 2020. The regression model was adopted to establish a nomogram. Nomogram performance was determined by its discriminative ability and clinical utility.

Result

The multivariable logistic regression model included sex, size, location, shape, cyst characteristic, and cystic wall thickening. The individualized prediction nomogram showed good discrimination in the training sample (AUC 0.89; 95% CI 0.83–0.95) and in the validation sample (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.70–0.94). If the threshold probability is between 0.03 and 0.9, and > 0.93 in the prediction model, using the nomogram to predict SCN and MCN is more beneficial than the treat-all-patients as SCN scheme or the treat-all-patients as MCN scheme. The prediction model showed better discrimination than the radiologists’ diagnosis (AUC = 0.68).

Conclusion

The nomogram could predict SCN and MCN preoperatively and may aid clinical decision-making.

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Funding

This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation for Scientists of China (81871352), Clinical Research Plan of SHDC (SHDC2020CR4073), 234 Platform Discipline Consolidation Foundation Project (2019YPT001).

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Author notes

  1. Chengwei Shao and Xiaochen Feng are the joint first authors in the paper.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Radiology, Changhai Hospital, Navy Medical University, Shanghai, 200434, China

    Chengwei Shao, Xiaochen Feng, Jieyu Yu, Yinghao Meng, Fang Liu, Hao Zhang, Xu Fang, Jing Li, Li Wang, Jianping Lu & Yun Bian

  2. Department of Pathology, Changhai Hospital, Navy Medical University, Shanghai, 200434, China

    Hui Jiang

Authors
  1. Chengwei Shao
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  2. Xiaochen Feng
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  3. Jieyu Yu
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  4. Yinghao Meng
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  5. Fang Liu
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  6. Hao Zhang
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  7. Xu Fang
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  8. Jing Li
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  9. Li Wang
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  10. Hui Jiang
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  11. Jianping Lu
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  12. Yun Bian
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Jianping Lu or Yun Bian.

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Shao, C., Feng, X., Yu, J. et al. A nomogram for predicting pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasm and serous cystic neoplasm. Abdom Radiol 46, 3963–3973 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00261-021-03038-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00261-021-03038-3

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