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Landslide and debris-flow hazard analysis and prediction using GIS in Minamata–Hougawachi area, Japan

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Environmental Geology

Abstract

On July 20, 2003, following a short duration of heavy rainfall, a debris-flow disaster occurred in the Minamata–Hougawachi area, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. This disaster was triggered by a landslide. In order to assess the landslide and debris-flow hazard potential of this mountainous region, the study of historic landslides is critical. The objective of the study is to couple 3D slope-stability analysis models and 2D numerical simulation of debris flow within a geographical information systems in order to identity the potential landslide-hazard area. Based on field observations, the failure mechanism of the past landslide is analyzed and the mechanical parameters for 3D slope-stability analysis are calculated from the historic landslide. Then, to locate potential new landslides, the studied area is divided into slope units. Based on 3D slope-stability analysis models and on Monte Carlo simulation, the spots of potential landslides are identified. Finally, we propose a depth-averaged 2D numerical model, in which the debris and water mixture is assumed to be a uniform continuous, incompressible, unsteady Newtonian fluid. The method accurately models the historic debris flow. According to the 2D numerical simulation, the results of the debris-flow model, including the potentially inundated areas, are analyzed, and potentially affected houses, river and road are mapped.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Environment Systems, Kyushu University, Hakouzaki 6-10-1, Higashi Ku, Fukuoka, 812-8581, Japan

    Chunxiang Wang, Tetsuro Esaki & Cheng Qiu

  2. College of Civil and Environment Engineering, University of Science and Technology, Beijing, Xueyuan Lu 30, Haidian District, Beijing, 10083, China

    Mowen Xie

Authors
  1. Chunxiang Wang
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  2. Tetsuro Esaki
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  3. Mowen Xie
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  4. Cheng Qiu
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Correspondence to Chunxiang Wang.

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Wang, C., Esaki, T., Xie, M. et al. Landslide and debris-flow hazard analysis and prediction using GIS in Minamata–Hougawachi area, Japan. Environ Geol 51, 91–102 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-006-0307-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-006-0307-0

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